Are there too many Severe Thunderstorm Warnings? Many meteorologists believe that people are desensitized to them because there are so many of them. And that is probably true. The criteria for a Severe Thunderstorm Warnings is hail 3/4 of an inch in diameter or greater and or winds of 58 mph or greater. The problem with this set of criteria is that 58 mph winds do not produce widespread damage, and 3/4 inch hail (the size of a penny) rarely causes much damage. The 3/4 inch threshold was actually created for aircraft, which can be damaged by such hail when flying at 200-300 mph. But pilots do not use Severe Thunderstorm Warnings anyway.

Why are there so many? I have read statistics that say that Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings have increased by 300% since the 1980s. We certainly have better technology, especially radar to help produce better warnings. While detection scores have increased, so have false alarm rates. This may be leading to a “cry wolf” syndrome where the public stops taking warnings seriously, which could endanger public safety. At the same time, severe weather reports have increased by 250%. This is already skewing the severe weather climatology database. There are not more incidents, we just have better spotter networks, lots of storm chasers and pressure within the NWS to verify their warnings so that verification scores will increase. Some say that there should be no process of verification, only periodic justification of reasoning behind warnings.

Some say the hail criteria should be raised to 1 inch in diameter (quarter size) or even golfball size (1.75 inch) and that the winds criteria should be raised to levels that are strong enough to create significant wind damage. Protection of the integrity of the database is the reason I have heard for not adjusting the criteria.

Some say there should be an enhanced Severe Thunderstorm Warning, such as a Very Severe Thunderstorm Warning. This warning would some with higher thresholds. These would be used only in cases where an enhanced threat to life and property is suspected to exist. Currently, NWS offices can use strong wording in their warnings to communicate especially dangerous situations. Now, what is your opinion? Please respond by posting your comment on the Weather Talk Blog...

It is a cold, raw wet afternoon in my Tiny Corner of the World. By 5 PM, 0.46 of an inch of rain had fallen with a brisk wind. I love a chilly, rainy day like this but it sure does pose problems when you-know-who needs to go to the bathroom. Just took Little Miss Molly out and I tried to hang close under the eve of the house while Molly made a quick dash into the wet grass and wet it even more.

I feel guilty bailing out of church tonight--especially our current Sunday Night Bible study in the book of Mark. Howsomever, I am making good use of the extra time by catching up on some active (very active) play sessions with Molly. She just jumped up on the king-size bed, burrowed under her blue blanket wanting to play hide-and-seek. She occasionally would pop only her head from the blanket and grab at me. I owe her some extra play time.

I also stayed home because of being way behind on bunches of non-weather stuff. But I expect the combination of Little Miss Molly and the current interesting weather going on to shoot down getting much of that done.

Sometimes, I wish I wasn't interested in weather. But it is very much like "printer's ink" and "railroading" addictions.

Life goes on--wet or dry, warm or cold.

Sunday's video update is on the server. Shortly after it went up there, SPC issued a tornado watch for a large part of the Florida peninsula. A low center just south of Mobile now will be tracking east-northeast across Florida. A warm front was situated between Orlando and Gainesville at 17Z with the TBW radar showing some strong storms still offshore from the west coast of Florida. Too bad our temperatures are not about 20 degrees lower, and we could be dealing with an intersting winter situation here. But temperatures are not anywhere near freezing.

Yesterday was probably the last day for us to see 60 degree readings for a while. As the surface low goes by and the upper trough sharpens, we should be getting into a good northwesterly flow pattern with cold air streaming southeast into the area through the latter part of the week.

Hate to see the last of the Storm Alert tours coming up! It is very enjoyable to get out and talk to people. Jason and I had a great trip over to Talladega yesterday to speak to the Senior Health Day talking about severe weather safety. Had over a hundred people and sure appreciated the hospitality of the staff at the hospital there.

Lots of activities coming up this week taking me to Odenville, Cedar Bluff, Vestavia Hills, and Huntsville. Plus with James and John at the Mississippi State symposium, I'll be filling in on the Friday and Saturday weathercasts.

Stay warm!

-Brian-