This is race weekend at Talladega, meaning lots of people are paying very close attention to the weather forecast. Lets take this space and break it down, since the forecast is somewhat complex.

TOMORROW: Looks like most of the day Saturday will be dry over East Alabama, so the Busch series race Saturday should be run with only a small risk of a shower. Temperatures should be in the mid 70s tomorrow afternoon.

TOMORROW NIGHT: Rain and storms will increase statewide, including the area around the Superspeedway. Looks like a good soaking, with one to two inches of rain likely. Some spots might even see three inches. The good news is that the threat of severe weather looks relatively small at this point with very little instability.

SUNDAY: Rain is possible at almost any time Sunday around the Superspeedway, but the heaviest rain could come during the morning hours. We also will be watching a wedge of cool air which will be entering Alabama from the east; if this wedge makes it to Talladega, temperatures could be pretty cool on Sunday with only low 60s through the day. But, for now we will forecast a high of around 70 and make adjustments as needed.

The bottom line is that the Busch series race on Saturday should be run without a big chance of rain, but the Aaron’s 499 on Sunday will be iffy.

Looking ahead to Monday, there will be a few showers around the state with some clouds, but at this point we don’t expect any really widespread or heavy rain on Monday. As always, some adjustments in the forecast might be necessary as the system gets it act together during the next 24 hours!

The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Don't forget we now offer both our webcast and the map discussion video on iTunes for those of you with a video iPod. Just search for ABC 33/40 Weather and you can subscribe. This is in addition to the audio forecast we have offered for over a year. You can see all of our "on the go" products here:

http://beta.abc3340.com/external.hrb?p=wxonthego&w=1

What a moving post below this one by J.B. Elliott... be sure and scroll down to read it. On to the weather business...

TONIGHT: Temperatures will drop quickly tonight with a clear sky, dry air, and light wind. Most spots will be in the mid 40s early tomorrow; the colder valleys will be closer to 40. Not many more of these kind of nights before summer arrives. Enjoy.

TOMORROW: Yet another fine day, with lots of sun and highs in the mid to upper 70s.

THE WEEKEND: Wet is the word for a pretty good part of the weekend. Lets break it down for NASCAR fans and everyone else with outdoor plans...

SATURDAY: The GFS is slower on the 12z run, which means much of the day Saturday could very well be dry. We will still mention a chance of a shower or storm by afternoon, but it sure looks like the organized area of rain and storms won't reach us until Saturday night. Looks like a decent chance the race Saturday afternoon at Talladega will be run without rain, but no guarantee. High temps will be in the mid 70s.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Wet and stormy. A dynamic, phased upper system will be over Kansas and Missouri, rain and storms are likely statewide Saturday night. The dynamics support a threat of severe weather, but the thermodynamics remain questionable. If we can get dewpoints up in the mid 60s, some storms Saturday night might produce hail and strong winds. Heavy rain is also a possibility; amounts of 1 to 2 inches is likely with some spots possibly receiving 3 inches.

SUNDAY: Rain and storms will continue on Sunday. The 12Z run of the GFS is slower; the dry slot is still west of Alabama Sunday morning. So, while we do believe the heaviest rain will come Sunday morning, we will have to continue at least a chance of showers into Sunday afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will probably be close to 70 degrees with clouds and showers. Yes, there is a chance the rain could be greatly diminished by the Aarons 499 at the Talladega Superspeedway, but we have to continue the risk of showers during the race.

J.B. Elliott in his afternoon discussion mentions the possibility of an MCS (mescscale convective system) moving over far South Mississippi and Alabama Saturday night, which might disrupt the flow of moisture into the northern half of the state. The GFS hints at this; but we really won't know if is a good possibility until the storms begin to fire Saturday.

NEXT WEEK: We will need to hang on to the chance of showers on Monday and Tuesday as the upper low fills to the northwest of us, and a surface boundary hangs around. Nothing really heavy; just a few showers on both days. The weather should be dry by Wednesday.

Thanks to the kindergarten kids at Mount Laurel Elementary in northern Shelby County... they were a great audience. Look for them on the KIDCAM on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00 today! And, don't forget you will have the chance to win a new video iPod on all of our newscasts during the next four weeks. Good luck!

I don't often post Molly stories on the blog, especially when weather information is so much more important. However, when james set up this weather blog, he provided a category "Miss Molly." You can click on that category and see a variety of stories about the little girl.

But today, I want to tell a story from Cara McFarland. I never do this without first getting permission and Carla graciously agreed. Here is her story:

I asked permission to use this story in the hope that it would make us all appreciate our pets more and treasure our time with them.

Carla's cocker spaniel, Brandy, developed a cancerous
tumor the size of a golf ball. It grew to the size of a softball in two
short months. Carla has a great vet and he told her that Brandy would let
her know when it was time to go.

About a week ago, Brandy woke up and put her head under Carla's hand wanting
her to pet her. She had never done that before, because she preferred belly rubs.

Carla is sure that it was Brandy's way of telling her she was ready to go.

Carla had read a book recently called, "Getting Lucky" by Susan Marino. It was a
story about a dog, named Lucky, coming to live his last days in a hospice called Angel's Gate.

On April 21, the Pell City Animal Hospital was loving and compassionate during Brandy's last
moments. Carla will never forget how beautiful Brandy looked in her box
holding her favorite toy.

Brandy was buried April 22 at Carla's parent's
farm next to her cat, Max. If Carla's story does not touch us, I don't know
what will. I dread the day when I face that with Little Miss Molly. I plan
to post a longer story on the BLOG. Life does not go on and on forever.
Enjoy every minute that you have.

You can ready Luck'y story on the Angel Gate web site at www.angelsgate.org

For a long time now on Good Morning Alabama, we have featured a "Pick City" of the day, but starting on Monday, we're going to something a little different. From now on, we want YOU to tell us about your town! Send the name of the town and a little something about how it got its name, someone who is famous from your town, or just some interesting fact that you think sets your town apart.

You can send me an e-mail to "pickcity@abc3340.com" or you can send the information on a post card via US Mail to:

ABC 33/40 Pick City
PO Box 360039
Birmingham, AL 35236

Every morning, Monday through Friday, I'll choose an e-mail or a postcard and highlight that city, town, or community. Remember, you don't have to have city limits to have a name!

And, if we choose your town, the person who sent in the information gets a free umbrella! This starts Monday, so go ahead and send your town in now!

The Thursday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

We will begin making these map discussion videos available on iTunes later today... I will post a note when we are ready to go. There have been several requests for this in recent months, and since we will begin offering our regular weather webcasts (along with news and sports) on iTunes today, I figured I would throw this video into the mix as well. SO... if you have a video iPod you can watch our map discussion videos anywhere!

TODAY/TOMORROW: This is the easy part of the forecast. Lots of sun; comfortable temperatures. Highs in the 70s, we go into the 40s tomorrow morning. Very nice.

THE WEEKEND: This is the hard part of the forecast. No doubt we will have rain and storms. Timing and intensity are the issues.

For now we will continue to forecast the main chance of rain from about 4:00 p.m. Saturday through 12:00 noon on Sunday. A big, phased storm will be over the middle of the nation this weekend. Very good dynamics, and a good soaking is likely. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches is a good bet; some spots could get more than that.

Another question is the amount of instability. Dewpoints look rather low in model output, which hopefully will keep the severe weather threat low. But, if instability values are greater than models are forecasting, then we might have some problems with severe storms Saturday night or Sunday morning.

In our forecast will continue to be optimistic and call for the rain to taper off by midday Sunday as a dry slot works in here from the west. This is great, of course, for NASCAR fans and hopefully the big race Sunday at the Talladega Superspeedway can be run with no delay. But, no promises. Big storm systems like this one can be slow movers.

EARLY NEXT WEEK: The GFS is bginning to hint and clouds and some light rain at times lingering into Monday, and maybe even Tuesday of next week, as the upper system slowly fills and a surface front hangs around.

LONG RANGE: The idea continue to be a mean upper trough over the eastern U.S. for the first week, maybe even the first two weeks of May. This implies temperatures at or below normal here with occasional rain producing systems.

TODAY: I will be speaking to the kids at Mount Laurel Elementary School in Shelby County... then on to the office where I will have the afternoon video posted by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!