Whitney Bartie and his family (wife and five children) went to bed around 10:00 p.m. on Wednesday, June 26, 1957 in their home on the Front Ridge in Cameron Parish, Louisiana. Advice from the Weather Bureau was vague and conflicting. Late afternoon advisories stated that the hurricane would reach the coast late Thursday. The late evening advisory stated that tides of 5-9 feet would affect the area by “late on Thursday.” Bartie planned to evacuate his family early on Thursday morning and retired for the night. His home was on one of the highest locations in the Parish and he felt they would be safe overnight.

At the Weather Bureau forecast office in New Orleans, it became apparent that Audrey was moving faster and intensifying. The 1 a.m. advisory was more urgent. It stated that the hurricane had increased its forward speed to 15 mph. Located just 150 miles south of Lake Charles, the advisory warned that 100 mph winds would affect the Lake Charles/Port Arthur area before noon.

At 4 a.m., the advisory still pegged top winds at 100 mph and predicted tides of 5-9 feet. The actual winds were 150 mph by that point and the highest recorded tides would be 13.9 feet. It was too late by that time anyway.

Forty miles south of Lake Charles, Mr. Bartie awoke around 5:00 a.m. hearing water underneath his house. He rushed to get his family in the car to drive away, but the engine was drowned by the rising storm surge. His family joined hands as hurricane force winds and rising water raged around them.
They climbed onto the roof of their home, but the water kept rising. The twelve foot storm surge, topped by fifteen foot waves gradually washed all of the family away one by one, leaving Mr. Bartie clinging to the roof. Eventually the roof flipped over and threw him into the angry waters. He was able to grab hold of a refrigerator and floated over four miles from his home, finally finding shelter in a tree.

How did 390 people die despite lots of advance warning? In his book Atlantic Hurricanes, Gordon Dunn, a future Director of the National Hurricane Center, blamed the failure of forecasts to effectively convey a sense of urgency and emergency. Advice to people in low and exposed places fell on deaf ears of some Cameron residents who though 7 to 8 feet of elevation and several miles inland from the Gulf was not “low and exposed.” People believed they had time to evacuate up until the time of arrival of the center, which is not true, since high winds and tides begin hours in advance of the center. Apathy played a role. There had not been a major hurricane since 1918. Longer term residents stayed and died, while newer residents left. We have certainly come a long way in hurricane forecasting. But, I am reminded that over 1,300 people died less than twelve months ago right here in the United States. We still have a long way to go.

I can honestly say I have never seen this many counties under flash flood watches as one time...this graphic is from around 6:30 tonight.  It seems the entire Mid-Atlantic and Northeast is under a flash flood warning at the same time.

Each one of the green diamonds represents a county under a flash flood warning.

A deep southerly flow of moisture continues across the Mid-Atlantic States and northeastern United States on the back side of high pressure over the Atlantic. 

This flow is producing copious amounts of rain from northeastern North Carolina and Virginia through Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey and up into New York State, Vermont and New Hampshire.    Even western Massachusettes and Connecticut are getting in on the act.

And don't look now, but our much-ballyhooed low pressure system is over northeastern North Carolina, moving northward.  It is going to produce widespread 2 to 5 inch rainfall amounts ahead of the center as it moves north through tomorrow.

It did not become a tropical depression or a tropical storm, but winds of 35-40 mph are being reported in the vicinity of the low. At 7 p.m. EDT...Cape Hatteras reported:

RAIN/FOG  
Temperature: 77 
Dew Point: 74
Humidity:   90% /
Wind: S23G33   
Pressure: 29.99S

Add coastal flood problems to the mix and it is a rough night around the Mid Atlantic.  A Coastal Flood Warning is now in effect for the tidal Potomac and Chesapeake.  Strong onshore winds around the low could push a tidal surge into the Chesapeake and Potoma tonight.  Flooding could ensure in places like Alexandria VA and Baltimore's Inner Harbor. 

In addition, tornadoes are possible tonight in the strongly sheared environment ahead of the low pressure center. 

But the good news is that the end of the rain is in sight.  As the low moves northward tomorrow, drier air will finally spread across the region and reach the coast. 

The storm chase begins to wind down . . .

So, day 10 was not the stormfest that we had all hoped for. It was our best day, but nothing really noteworthy happened. After we were done chasing, we raced ahead of the squall line and beat it to LIncoln, Nebraska, which is where we stayed for the night. We had been in Lincoln maybe 15 minutes when the line caught up to us and soaked us right as we were walking to dinner.

I had hoped to get to visit the University of Nebraska the next morning on our way out and maybe be able to see the football stadium or something cool like that, but we didn't go anywhere near there. Oh well. We headed towards Wichita where we had stayed several nights before. We were all excited about that, because Wichita had been one of the group's favorite previous stops. There was something in our way, though, and it was in a little town called Gas, Kansas (I know, that is an awesome name for a town).

What stood in the way of a relaxing afternoon by the pool in Wichita was another afternoon of waiting in a sweltering park for storms to fire. The parameters for storm development weren't even that great, but we tried anyway. The wait at this park was similar to the ones before except this one was more boring. The highlight of the wait was a funeral we held for a bird that we found near the merry-go-round.

So, no storms ever even tried to develop, and we eventually headed to Wichita. There, we met up with the other storm chase group again, and had a good night with them before they headed back to Starkville. By this time most of the group was about ready to head home. The trip had been a disappointment weather-wise, and we didn't expect it to get any better before we headed home in a couple of days. That said, we had a surprise in store for us during the next day's trip.

Next time . . . on to Elk City, OK . . .

Drew McCombs
ABC 33/40 Weather Intern
abc3340wx2@gmail.com

I've been in Chicago since late Friday and having a great time in a truly BIG city - forget the windy part. I'm stuck - oh what a chore to be stuck here - in the Apple Store in downtown Chicago while it is pouring outside. But I really can't complain because the weather has been great.

My daughter and I took in Navy Pier last Saturday while the weather was superb. I really gave my digital camera a workout taking over 200 photos in one day. Unfortunately, we walked my legs to pegs and I don't think I've fully recovered from the walking Saturday. But the day was gorgeous with a beautiful blue sky, a nice cool breeze off the lake, and temperatures that only reached the lower 80s - 82 at O'Hare Airport. The ferris wheel at Navy Pier provided a wonderful view of Lake Michigan with over 100 sailboats visible along with a couple of tall ships.

Chicago is truly an interesting city with lots of history such as the devastating Chicago fire in 1871 which leveled almost the whole town. There is so much to do here, too, with Navy Pier and all the activites there and Millennium Park with the fabulous Jay Pritzker Pavillion where we heard 10 grand pianos played by 30 pianists Sunday evening in the wonderful cool air of a superb summer evening. And I haven't taken in a single museum yet and probably won't be able to on this trip.

As for the moment, I'm stuck in the Apple Store on Michigan Avenue while it rains outside. And thunder just resounded down the valleys of the downtown from a lightning strike that occurred who knows where. The Apple Store has free classes everyday covering a multitude of the various software elements available for the Macs. I really enjoyed the class this morning on getting started with your Mac since I've just recently decided to explore the world of Macs with a new MacBook Pro. My wife is concerned about the health of my credit card, so composing this Blog post is keeping me out of the cashier line - and out of trouble at home!!

Getting around is really easy with fantastic public transportion. My daughter lives on the northside of Chicago, and she presented me with a 7-day CTA pass when I got here which is a great way to get around. I haven't had to use a single penny and have really gotten my money's worth from the 7-day pass. I'm doing a creditable job of getting around on my own for only having been here four days. My days of being a tourist will end tomorrow when I fly back to Birmingham via Southwest Airlines.

Thursday I'll try to pick up with the Blog weather discussions since James is also away for the whole week. The rain has quit but I'm still itching to make a few purchases. Oh, I hope my wife doesn't read this. More later. Oh, temperatures are still in the upper 70s at 3:30 pm.

-Brian-

Weather Brains episode 22 is now on the server!

In this week's podcast:

- We look at the storm many people mistakenly thought was nothing to worry about:Bill Murray describes 1957's Hurricane Audrey;
- J. B. Elliott recalls tropical systems from nearly sixty years ago;
- Trial by fire: J. B. Elliott recalls what happened his very first day on the job with the National Weather Service 49 years ago;
- What are the prospects for rain in central Alabama? Bill Murray has the answer...

Weather Brains is a weekly 30 minute podcast for people who love weather. You can listen to the podcast anywhere on an iPod or any other MP3 player, or on your computer.

To subscribe, go to the iTunes Music Store, and choose "Podcasts". In the search box, enter "Weather Brains". On the next page, on the "Weather Brains" line click on subscribe.

If you use another podcast receiving program, enter this feed address: http://feeds.feedburner.com/weatherbrains

A few have developed this afternoon and they were mostly over NE Alabama.

At 1:30 pm, they extended from along the St. Clair-Talladega County line, northeastward to near Gadsden and Centre.

They were moving east.

This is not a wide-ranging discussion like you are used to each morning and afternoon. James will resume those next week. Just a few highlights. First, check out this 500 millibar chart.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/weather/difax/2021.gif

This is at roughly 18,000 feet off the ground in this part of the country--much lower of course in the Rocky Mountains. Note these main features:

1. A distinct trough digging its way into the east.
2. A high pressure area over the western North Atlantic, off the USA East Coast
3. This is what we call blocking action (and a squeeze play)

The trough is too strong (especially for summer) to give in and the North Atlantic ridge has been hanging on like a it was in a pitched battle. Result: Vast amounts of moist air streams northward along the Atlantic Seaboard like it is traveling on a weather autobahn. Overnight, some places in Pennsylvania got nearly three inches of rain in 90 minutes. We have seen the news pictures of very serious flooding in places like washington and Baltimore: In Washington:

2.56 inches of additional rain in the last 24 hours
9.65 inches is the 48 hour total

In Virginia, Roanoke 4.08 inches in the last 24 hours and 4.44 fell at Harrisburg, in Central Pennsylvania.

Big elm tree crashed because of soft soil on the White House grounds.

More flooding rains today. In addition, the Storm Prediction Center has pasted a slight risk of severe thunderstorms today for:

East half of North Carolina
East half of Virginia
Maryland except the Panhandle
East one-third pf Pennsylvania
All of New Jersey

OUTLOOK
The upper trough will be strong enough to force some drier air further eastward in the next 24 hours brining much needed relief to much of the area.

BACK HOME IN ALABAMA
That same upper trough is pulling some dry air southward into the state. We have almost completely eliminated the risk of showers through about Friday. Even during the weekend, the chance of you getting west is very low. This is not good news. While some parts of Alabama received nice beneficial rains since last weekend, many areas remain very dry. These two totals in the last 24 hours:

1.91 inches at Roanoke
0.41 at Centre (Weiss Dam)

At Anniston Airport, only 1.24 inches has fallen all month and 0.68 of that fell last Saturday. Daytime humidity will be lower and high temperatures nowhere near 100--mostly upper 80s and lower 90s. In the North Alabama valleys, we may see some upper 50s tonight. These delightful lows this morning:

59 in Desoto State Park
60 in Hamilton
61 in Crossville
63 in Cullman, Wedowee, Winfield

AT THE BEACH
Generally good weather through the weekend. Only a few afternoon showers. Highs in the lower 90s if you venture inland but upper 80s along the beaches. Sea surface temperature at the Panama City Buoy was 85 this morning.

TROPICAL
Scan down to see a special statement from the National Hurricane Center.

MORE COFFEE
Glowing news reports that if you drink at least four 8-ounce cups of coffee, either leaded or unleaded, that it will help prevent some health problems. Let me get outta here--I need to start my second pot. Yummy.

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
730 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION INDICATE THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSED
CIRCULATION EXISTS AT THE SURFACE.

RESIDENTS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE
REQUIRED WITH LITTLE NOTICE. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT FORM INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
ONSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

FORECASTER STEWART

On the evening of Juen 26, 1957, Hurricane Audrey was roaring ashore as a much stronger hurricane than forecasters had expected...the results were disastrous...

NEW ORLEANS WEATHER BUREAU
HURRICANE WARNING AND ADVISORY NUMBER 7 AUDREY
10 PM CST JUNE 26 1957

CHANGE TO HURRICANE WARNINGS 10 PM CST O UPPER TEXAS COAST AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGH ISLAND. LOWER STORM WARNINGS EAST OF LOUISIANA TO PENSACOLA>

AT 10 PM CST...0400Z...HURRICANE AUDREY WAS CENTERED ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTH OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 LONGITUDE 93.5 MOVING NORTHWARD ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE AREA FROM HIGH ISLAND TO MORGAN CITY IS EXPECTED TO BEAR THE BRUNT OF THIS HURRICANE THURSDAY.

HIGHEST WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 100 MPH NEAR CENTER AND GALES EXTEND OUT 150 TO 200 MILES TO EAST AND NORTH OF CENTER AND 50 MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST.

TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 5 TO 9 FFET FROM HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA AND 3 TO 6 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM FREEPORT TEXAS TO BILOXI MISSISSIPPI BY LATE THURSDAY. ALL PERSONS IN LOW EXPOSED PLACES SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. WINDS ARE INCREASING ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS AND WILL REACH GALE FORCE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE DISPLAYED ALONG THE ENTIRE LOUISIANA COAST AND ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGH ISLAND AND STORM WARNINGS AT GALVESTON. THE THREAT OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA HAS LESSENED CONSIDERABLY.

NEXT ADVISORY AT 4 AM CST BULLETIN AT 1 AM CST.

CONNER WEATHER BUREAU NEW ORLEANS


On the evening of Wednesday, June 26, 1957, residents of Cameron Parish in far southwestern Louisiana listened with concern to the 10 p.m. newscasts out of Port Arthur. The 10 p.m. advisory stated that the center of Hurricane Audrey was 235 miles south of Lake Charles, Louisiana with top winds of 100 mph. The advisory warned that gales extended out 200 miles to the north of the center and that tides of 5 to 9 feet above normal would affect the coast. Although the advisory urged people in low exposed places to move to higher ground, the problem was in the wording. The advisory stated that the tides would occur by “late Thursday.”

Reconnaissance during the morning of the 26th indicated that Audrey had a central pressure of 973 millibars and top winds of 100 mph. No other eye penetration was done during the afternoon or night. A radar tracking flight did indicate that the rain pattern with the hurricane had become more intense during the nighttime hours. So the hurricane forecaster did not have complete information when he put the advisory to bed before the late night news shows. Audrey was intensifying rapidly and moving faster toward the coast.

Most residents in low lying Cameron Parish heard the 4 p.m. advisory say that the hurricane was forecast to move inland late on Thursday and decided to leave early Thursday morning. Residents recalled that the news broadcasts out of Port Arthur had downplayed the situation. And the situation in Port Arthur was not as serious, but in Cameron, forty miles closer to the ocean, the situation was becoming more serious by the minute.

During the final hours between the final reconnaissance observation and landfall, Hurricane Audrey underwent explosive deepening. The actual pressure at landfall is not known for sure as no direct readings were made. Researchers extrapolated from the closest official reading at the Calcasieu Coast Guard Station 20 miles east of the landfall point just west of Cameron that the pressure at landfall may have been as low as 930 to 936 millibars! Top winds were 150 mph, making Audrey a Category Four and nearly Category Five storm, quite a different story from the Category Two hurricane that Cameron residents thought they were dealing with late that night.

Residents who stayed up that night realized that tides were rising by 2:30 a.m. and by 4:30 a.m., escape was impossible as roads were underwater. Residents who went to bed in places like Cameron awoke to water in their houses. It would begin a morning of fighting for survival for thousands of people in Cameron Parish, trying to keep from drowning or being killed by flying debris while fighting poisonous snakes and crazed animals. 390 people perished and another 190 were never heard from or found again.