I continue to be concerned about the “crying wolf” syndrome when it comes to weather watches, warnings, and advisories in Alabama, and the rest of the nation.

Let me say up front this is NOT to criticize anyone at the local National Weather Service office here in Birmingham; our friends there do a very good job, and I am thankful for their work. I would even expect a number of folks there to share my concern. The criteria for the various weather warnings and advisories come from their superiors in Fort Worth and Washington. I simply believe we have way too many severe weather messages bombarding the public now, and they are not going to listen when we REALLY have an emergency going on and they REALLY have to take immediate action.

The recent “heat advisory” was a good example… that thing got the media in full hype mode early this week. There were even heat stories on the news last night as rain was falling and temperatures were in the low 70s in most places! Watch some TV reporters and you would think we were all about to go into spontaneous combustion or something. It simply wasn’t hot enough for a real serious heat problem here; the weather is supposed to be that hot in late July. Lets save the hype for a real heat emergency.

I also think severe thunderstorm warnings have become so common that nobody pays attention. We really need to “raise the bar”; I suggest hail of 1” in diameter or larger or winds of 65 mph or greater (the current criteria is 3/4" diameter hail and 58 mph winds). This should cut back on a ton of frivolous warnings. And, yes, the false alarm ratio (FAR) on tornado warnings is still too high. The easiest thing in the world is to issue a tornado warning; the most difficult thing to do is NOT pull the trigger everytime a TVS or MESO shows up on radar.That difficult choice is most often the correct choice. Yes, I know we need to follow the "course of least regret", but something needs to be done or all of these messages will be worthless.

If the bar isn't raised on existing warnings, I am a big proponent of initiating formal “tornado emergency”, “severe thunderstorm emergency”, and “heat emergency” messages that would be rarely used, and only when there is a KNOWN immediate threat to life. Examples of a tornado emergency would include the 4/8/1998 tornado outbreak (34 people lost their lives that night); a severe thunderstorm emergency would be like the derecho event on February 16, 2001 when widespread winds of 100 mph moved through Birmingham (this complex produced severe damage from eastern Mississippi all the way across Alabama), and a heat emergency would be needed for events like the July 1980 heat wave in which a number of people lost their life.

Unless the warning system changes, it will become insignificant. And, that will cost many lives. We need change,and we need it now. Once again, this is a call for those high up in the National Weather Service organization to consider making some moves now in watch and warning criteria, or initiating the new "emergency" messages as I mention here. And, don't even get me started about the bewildering number of advisories used during winter storm situations. I will write that article on a colder day!

Flash Flood Warning still in effect until 8:15 for...

Blount County
Etowah County

However, the strongest thunderstorms and heaviest rain now west of those two counties.

At 7:20, the heaviest rain extended from North Tuscaloosa County NE along the Walker-Jefferson County line into Cullman County.

Overall...the big guys are going downhill and we are glad. Still, come areas will continue to get heavy rain for an hour or so.

Gadsden total at the 3340 WeatherNet site now up to 1.53 inches.

More Flash Flood Warnings:

Blount County until 8:15 tonight
Etowah County also until 8:15

The Flash Flood Warnings issued earlier for Bibb County also continues until 7:15

In Etowah and Blount County, rainfall of two to three inches has fallen and one or two additional inches are possible.

The ABC 33/40 WeatherNet site in Gadsden reports 1.28 inches of rain.

0.75 at Greystone Cove (North Shelby County)
0.86 at Gadsden (3340 WeatherNet) (Severe Thunderstorm still in the area)
0.26 at Legion Field.

.....probably over one inch at Munford, Talladega County earlier this afternoon.

...Based on radar, surely over one inch in parts of Bibb County. Still heavy rain in that area at 5:45 pm.

.....and the NWS issued a Flash Flood Warning for Bibb county until 7:15. Storms over the county have been stationary since 5 o'clock with two-inch rainfall amounts common.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for both Jefferson and Etowah County until 6 pm, CDT

The Jefferson County storm was located near Graysville in the west part of the county moving east at 20.

The warning includes Trussville, Minor, Hueytown, Gardendale, Fultondale, Birmingham, Bessemer, Morris, Homewood and Pinson.

Possible damaging winds.

Very heavy rain.

Loads of lightning.

Storms with heavy rain now occurring over Bibb County south of the Birmingham area.

In Etowah County, the storm was near Attalla moving NE at 10 and moving toward Rainbow City and Gadsden.

It's a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Central Blount County until 5:30 pm.

The storm was near Blountsville...about 9 miles NW of Oneonta and moving east at 10.

May have gusts to 60 and very heavy rain.

Loads of dangerous lightning.

NWS/Huntsville has Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for Marshall County until 5 pm and for Jackson County until 5:15. The storms were...

West of Scottsboro, moving east at 15
Near Arab, moving slowly east at 5 mph toward Guntersville

Other notes...
Heavy rain has diminished in Shelby County except the NE part. Pouring now over NE Shelby County and along the St. Clair-Talladega County line.

0.66 rainfall in Greystone Cove (James Spann)

Moderate to heavy showers also east edge of Tuscaloosa County and North Bibb County.

A personal note...
I am overdosed on Daylight Saving Time and now Congress is going to give me more????

Pouring over parts of Shelby County, especial Central and East. The heavy rain edging into West Talladega County

Also some storms over Clay and North Randolph.

At 4 pm, the NWS observation site at Shelby County Airport reported visibility only 1/4 mile in a thunderstorm with heavy rain. They had measured 0.60 rainfall, mostly in a half hour or so.

On a completely different subject:

At 4 pm, it was a hot 95 degrees in Monticello, Arkansas but across the cold front it was only 69 at Fayetteville in the NW corner of the state.

We are still having communication problems with our live radar system on Double Oak Mountain... we have Bellsouth people here at our building now and on the mountain; we hope to have a resolution soon; it is all in Bellsouth's hands now...

Next time remind me not to put our radar in such a remote location!

It's for South Central Talladega County, including Sylacauga until 3:15 pm.

It is a slow-mover. Moving NW at only 5 mph. Could have 60 mph wind gusts...but also very heavy rain.

Storms over South Shelby County also dumping heavy rain. Slow northward movement.

REPORT FROM NE BIRMINGHAM:
Ben Campbell reported 1/2 inch of rain in only 15 minutes on Ridge Road in South Robuck when the thunderstorm moved through earlier this afternoon.