Hurricane warnings are being raised at 10 pm CDT from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border. This include metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Ponchartrain.

A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are in effect from the Alabama/Florida border eastward to Destin and west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City, Louisiana.

At 10 p.m. CDT...the center of Hurricane Katrina was located near...
Latitude 25.0 North...Longitude 86.2 West or 335 miles SSE of the Mouth of the Mississippi RIver
Movement is WNW at 7 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 115 mph
Central pressure as reported by Air Force plane was 939 mb at 8:38 pm

The current forecast track carries the center of Katrina near the mouth of the Mississippi River early Monday morning, then near or or just east of New Orleans, and then onto the coast near Slidell around mid afternoon. At that time, top winds will be around 145 mph, which will make Katrina a Category Four hurricane.

This is a serious situation for New Orleans. Winds will come out of the southeast, then the east and then northeast. This could pile water into Lake Ponchartrain and could swamp the levees, flooding the city.

Katrina looks much more organized on infrared satellite photos this evening and the intensification trend is expected to continue during the night. Katrina is over the very warm sea surface temperatures of the Gulf Loop Current. It will likely reach Category Four status Sunday morning.

Katrina will gradually recurve to the north northeast, passing near the Alabama/Mississippi border Monday night. This will spread high winds, torrential rains and tornadoes over much of North and Central Alabama, especially western sections starting Monday afternoon and continuing into Tuesday morning.

Hurricane warnings will be raised at 10 pm from the Alabama/Florida border to Morgan City, Louisiana.

The official forecast track will be shifted slightly eastward (about 10 miles,) pointing to a landfall near Slidell Monday at noon.

The intensity forecast is basically unchanged with Katrina expected to become a Category Four hurricane on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are expected to reach 145 mph. Tides of 15-20 feet will occur near and east of where the center reaches the coast.

We are nearing Mobile, heading for Biloxi tonight...

More shortly...

* NHC will probably shift the track forecast about 10 miles to the east on next advisory

* Buoy 42040 (about 70 miles south of Dauphin Island) reports ENE winds averaging 23 mph with gusts to 29 mph.

* Buoy 42003 (300 land miles south of Panama City) has 31-foot waves with ENE winds averaging 65 mph and gusts to 76 mph.

Boothville, Louisiana (at mounth of Mississippi)...wind NE 23, gusts 29
New Orleans International Airport...wind east at 7
San Key (in Florida Keys)...wind SE 30, gusts 36 (yes, they are still getting brisk winds from Katrina)

* NWS in Mobile has posted an Inland Hurricane Watch for their coastal counties.

Bill Murray is enroute to the coast with the 3340 news/weather crew and he will be posting reports here as he goes south. Meanwhile, here is a quick update on this major hurricane at 7 pm.

* Katrina is now moving more toward the WNW at 7 mph.

* 7 pm position is near latitude 24.8N, longitude 85.9W or about 360 miles SE of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

* Highest sustained winds 115 mph with higher gusts. She is still a Category 3 and will probably be a Category 4 before landfall, even by later tonight. Tropical force winds extend out 160 miles already. A buoy NW of the center has reported sustained winds of 54 mph, with a gust to 64 along with 25 foot waves.

* Lowest pressure is 944 MB or 27.88 inches.

* 12 foot waves are already approaching portions of the northern Gulf Coast. The surf is increasing also at Gulf Shores.

* Hurricane Watch now in effect all the way from Intracoastal City, Louisiana east to the Alabama-NW Florida border. That, of course, includes all of the Alabama coast. Some of that area almost surely will come under a Hurricane Warning later tonight.

We will have some more spot reports later plus other notes...

Here is a roundup of 5 'oclock reports. Some of these posted to show that nothing serious is going on yet:

Buoy 42001, Middle Gulf...water temperature 86, wind NNE 23, gusts 27, nine-foot waves
Buoy 42003, East Gulf...water temperature 87, wind ENE gusts 49, 22-foot waves
Buoy 42207, South Biloxi...water temperature 88, wind east 14
South Mobile Buoy, 70 miles south of Dauphin Island, water temperature 87, wind ENE 21, 10-foot waves
Mobile Regional Airport...sunny, wind NE 7
Gulfport...mostly sunny...wind NE 10
Hattiesburg...sunny, wind NE 10, gusts 17
Pascagoula...sunny, wind NE 7
New Orleans International Airport...sunny...wind NE 12
Boothville, La.,...wind NE 14, gusts 21

Remember, hurricanes are very pleased to have 85-degree water. Note the water temperatures above of 86-88. In some places it is 90. Katrina will especially like that unfortunately.

Let me say up front, if some of the projections hold true, there is going to be a major disaster somewhere along the Gulf Coast. The main focus area still seems to be South Louisiana and possibly the Mississippi coast.

HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDED EASTWARD TO INCLUDE ALABAMA COAST
At 4:00 o'clock, the Hurricane Watch was extended eastward to the Florida/Alabama border. That means a Hurricane Watch is now in effect all along the Northern Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border. Naturally, this includes such places as the Mobile County coast and the Gulf Shores/Orange Beach area of Baldwin County. That may be changed to a Hurricane Warning for part of the area later tonight or Sunday.

One little bit of good news...the Tropical Storm Warning was cancelled at 4:00 p.m. for the Florida Keys.

4:00 PM FAST FACTS
Katrina was centered near latitude 24.6N, longitude 85.6W which is about 380 miles SE of the mouth of the Mississippi River and about 240 miles west of Key West moving toward the west at 7 mph. A gradual turn toward the WNW during the next 24 hours. NHC thinks that main turn should occur late Sunday. Sustained winds are now 115 mph with gusts to nearly 140 mph. She is now a Category 3 hurricane and expected to become a Category 4 later tonight or Sunday. NHC also says they have not totally discounted the possibility of a Category 5 before landfall. The lowest central pressure was 945 MB or 27.91 inches.

Heavy rains from Katrina should spread to the Central Gulf Coast Sunday evening. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with possible amounts of 15 inches are possible along the Central Gulf Coast.

SCARY PROJECTIONS
The sea surface temperature is extremely warm. There is a possibility that wind gusts could reach in excess of 175 mph by midday Monday just before moving inland over the SE edge of Louisiana.

STAY TUNED
We will be posting lots of information on this hurricane for the duration, including spot reports and later some recommended action along the Alabama coast. I believe James Spann is also preparing an Impact Statement concerning the State of Alabama.

Based on the 4:00 National Hurricane Center package, here are some notes on the expected impact of Katrina on Alabama:

The greatest impact from Katrina in Alabama will come from roughly 6:00 p.m. Monday through 3:00 p.m. Tuesday.

The greatest chance of widespread tree and power line damage will be along and west of U.S. 43, or west of a line from Mobile to Thomasville to Demopolis to Tuscaloosa to Fayette to Hamilton and on to Muscle Shoals. This includes communities like York, Livingston, Reform, Gordo, Sulligent, Vernon, and Red Bay. People in this part of the state, the far western counties, need to be prepared for extended power outages. Winds in this part of the state could easily peak as high as 50 to 70 mph.

It is likely that we will recommend that people abandon mobile homes along and west of U.S. 43 by 9:00 Monday night.

For the I-65 corridor, including the Birmingham metro area, tropical storm force winds are likely. This would be winds in excess of 39 mph.

For Anniston, Gadsden, and the eastern third of the state, winds in the 25 to 35 mph range are likely.

Isolated tornadoes will be possible STATEWIDE. We will be in the most favorable quadrant of the storm for tornadoes in spiral bands wrapping around the center of Katrina.

Rain amounts of 6 to 10 inches are likely near the Mississippi border eastward to U.S. 43. For the I-65 corridor, amounts of 3 to 6 inches are likely, with amounts of 2 to 4 inches for the eastern side of the state.

The situation looks very ominous in New Orleans. Here is the contraflow plan for the city for the rest of the weekend:

http://www.wwltv.com/weather/hurricane/images/contraflowmap.jpg

Needless to say, this could change as the system approaches the coast. People in far west Alabama need to begin preparations now for Katrina....

Stay tuned to the blog for frequent updates.

A few notes from a conference now underway from NHC

* Position projected at 48 hours near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 90.0 west which is inland over South Louisiana south of the New Orleans area.

* Projected winds at that time sustained just under 145 mph, gusts in excess of 170 mph. If that happens, it is obvious that a major disaster is in the making.

* NHC also not totally ruling out a Category Five by the time of landfall.

* Significant turn in direction expected late Sunday.

* A Hurricane Watch will be extended east to the Alabama-Florida border.

More details soon after 4 pm. The above information is preliminary. Wait for the official advisory for the final word. A new track forecast willalso be available soon after 4. NHC (National Hurricane Center) does not antiicipate much change in that,

The New Orleans Metro Area and SE Louisiana will be going through a crucial time as Katrina turns northward and gets closer to the coast.

At 4 this afternoon, the city will change inbound traffic arteries to outbound only. Low-lying parishes started evacuations earlier today. This could become a traffic nightmare. Some press reports say that you now have to drive for 6 hours from New Orleans to find a motel vacancy.

A state pf emergency has been declared in Mississippi.

Here is the current official NWS forecast for New Orleans starting Sunday night. Of course, that may change later depending on later track forecasts.

Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms in the evening...then numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms after midnight. Very windy. Lows in the upper 70s. Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph increasing to 25 to 40 mph after midnight. Chance of showers and thunderstorms 70 percent.

Monday
Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning...then widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Hurricane force winds. Highs in the mid 80s. Northeast winds 40 to 60 mph becoming northwest and increasing to 45 to 85 mph in the afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms 90 percent.

Have you noticed that the heat across most Alabama has not been so oppressive the last couple of days? While the high temperatures have lowered a bit, the main credit should go to the lower dew points.

This afternoon, dewpoints are in the mid-60s over much of the area. Recently when we were having high temperatures between 94 and 98, the ole dew point was as high as 74, 75, and 76. That makes a whole lot of difference! A couple of low temperatures this morning:

64 at Desoto State Park
66 in Pinson

That is a lot better than lows in the mid 70s during the worst of the recent heat.