Here is the latest on Ernesto at 10 p.m.
LOCATION...18.6N 74.7W...115 SSE of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
MOVEMENT...NW-7
MAX WINDS...50 mph
CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 millibars (29.65 inches)
The strom should intensify slightly overnight, likely peaking at 70 mph before it reaches eastern Cuba tomorrow morning. It will then begin the transit across the island nation, slowly weakening as the mountainous terrain takes it s toll on the circulation. The storm is taking a more northwesterly track now, which will lessen the time over land. This means the weakening will be less pronounced.
Consequently, the storm should be a strong tropical storm when it emerges off the north coast of Cuba late Monday night. It will then cut across the warm waters of the Florida Straits, which will allow it to reintensify. Fortunately, it will not have much time. It should reach the middle Florida Keys around midnight Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. By that time, it will be turning to a more northerly course. It will make landfall near Naples after crossing Florida Bay.
Hurricane force winds will be felt near the center as it passes across the Keys and Southwest Florida.
It will pass near Fort Myers then curve northeastward, passing near Orlando and exiting the coast near St. Augustine. It will parallel the Georgia and South Carolina coasts, passing near Savannah. BY Friday evening, it will be near New Bern on the North Carolina coast, heading northeast. It will likely be a tropical storm all along the way.
Now, give or take an increasing number of miles either side of that skinny black line I described, and you have the projected track of Ernesto. The cone of uncertainty has now shifted to Panama City on the west, good news for much of the NW Florida coast, as well as points west. There is a small chance it could turn north quickly enough to miss Florida altogether, although that seems unlikely.
The storm's impact on Alabama will be minimal, just some drier and slightly cooler air that will flow in as the storm passes to our east.
10 p.m. Quick Look at Ernesto...
August 27, 2006, 10:22 pm
by Bill Murray
in Tropical Weather
One Year Ago Tonight
August 27, 2006, 9:48 pm
On Saturday night, August 27, 2005, I was enroute to the Mississippi Gulf Coast with Brian Peters. We were near Biloxi when we heard a news conference from New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin on WWL radio. Our mouths both dropped at the same time and we looked at each other in amazement. I had to write the foolowing blog post as we drove...
Waiting Too Late?
August 27, 2005, 11:45 pm
I am thoroughly amazed at an interview that I just heard with New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin on WWL radio. He said that he was considering a mandatory evacuation of the city. Considering? With the official National Hurricane Ceneter track showing a Category Four hurricane, perhaps even a Category FIVE hurricane moving directly over a city that takes 72 hours to evacuate? He said that the city’s attorneys were in consultation about the legalities of such an order. Legalities? Wouldn’t that be something you would contemplate in advance? Not 48 hours before landfall. What would be the criteria that would make such an action automatic?
Mayor Nagin said that the Governor had recommended that he talk to Max Mayfield at the National Hurricane Center. Hello! I would have had a hotline installed directly to Max’s cell phone. The Mayor said that Max Mayfield told him this was the storm that everyone has feared for New Orleans for many, many years. Max said that he had been in the business for 31 years and that this was the real deal. Still tonight, traffic on evacuation routes in Southeast Lousiana was amazingly light. Will tomorrow morning’s evacuation order come too late?
All I have heard from local emergency managers in Southeast Louisiana is the looming disaster that is New Orleans and a powerful hurricane. I have had heard that emergency managers say they will need thousands of body bags when a major hurricane pushes a 20-25 foot storm surge into Lake Ponchartrain and over the city’s levee system. Hopefully that will not come true.
I have another fear. That people on the Mississippi and Alabama coasts will take Katrina lightly because of all the media coverage and focus on New Orleans. A storm surge of 15-20 feet or higher will occur in that vulnerable area of the Mississippi coast around Waveland, Pass Christian and Bay St. Louis. Those names sound familiar? They were made famous by Hurricane Camille’s 27 foot storm surge in 1969.
Turns out the evacuation order did come too late, the plan was insufficient and the response was tragic...the rest is history.
Waiting Too Late?
August 27, 2005, 11:45 pm
I am thoroughly amazed at an interview that I just heard with New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin on WWL radio. He said that he was considering a mandatory evacuation of the city. Considering? With the official National Hurricane Ceneter track showing a Category Four hurricane, perhaps even a Category FIVE hurricane moving directly over a city that takes 72 hours to evacuate? He said that the city’s attorneys were in consultation about the legalities of such an order. Legalities? Wouldn’t that be something you would contemplate in advance? Not 48 hours before landfall. What would be the criteria that would make such an action automatic?
Mayor Nagin said that the Governor had recommended that he talk to Max Mayfield at the National Hurricane Center. Hello! I would have had a hotline installed directly to Max’s cell phone. The Mayor said that Max Mayfield told him this was the storm that everyone has feared for New Orleans for many, many years. Max said that he had been in the business for 31 years and that this was the real deal. Still tonight, traffic on evacuation routes in Southeast Lousiana was amazingly light. Will tomorrow morning’s evacuation order come too late?
All I have heard from local emergency managers in Southeast Louisiana is the looming disaster that is New Orleans and a powerful hurricane. I have had heard that emergency managers say they will need thousands of body bags when a major hurricane pushes a 20-25 foot storm surge into Lake Ponchartrain and over the city’s levee system. Hopefully that will not come true.
I have another fear. That people on the Mississippi and Alabama coasts will take Katrina lightly because of all the media coverage and focus on New Orleans. A storm surge of 15-20 feet or higher will occur in that vulnerable area of the Mississippi coast around Waveland, Pass Christian and Bay St. Louis. Those names sound familiar? They were made famous by Hurricane Camille’s 27 foot storm surge in 1969.
Turns out the evacuation order did come too late, the plan was insufficient and the response was tragic...the rest is history.
by Bill Murray
in Weather History
Alabama Weather Update
August 27, 2006, 9:23 pm
Storms continue across Alabama tonight...
They have gotten quite strong over North Central Alabama from northern Walker County through Winston into Lawrence County. The strongest storm was about 10 miles NW of Jasper.
Addiitonal strong storms were in a long line from near Calrea to Thorsby to near Billingsley. They are moving NNE at 10 mph. They are approachign Clanton and heading toward Columbiana.
Look for heavy rains and dangerous lightning from these storms.
The storm in northern Jefferson County has weakened. The heaviest rain was between Pinson and Clay.
They have gotten quite strong over North Central Alabama from northern Walker County through Winston into Lawrence County. The strongest storm was about 10 miles NW of Jasper.
Addiitonal strong storms were in a long line from near Calrea to Thorsby to near Billingsley. They are moving NNE at 10 mph. They are approachign Clanton and heading toward Columbiana.
Look for heavy rains and dangerous lightning from these storms.
The storm in northern Jefferson County has weakened. The heaviest rain was between Pinson and Clay.
by Bill Murray
in General Thoughts
Storms Holding On...
August 27, 2006, 8:28 pm
In fact, they have gotten a little stronger in the past hour...
Here is a rundown...
...a slowly weakening storm over northern Shelby and southern Jefferson County from Pelham up to Mountain Brook is moving NNE. It may make it to Trussville before falling a completely apart.
...one east of the Shelby County Airport...
...two cells over Chilton County...west and southwest of Clanton...
...the strongest remaining storm in the state is south of Lynn in Winston County...
The storms will slolwy go downhill over the next few hours...
Here is a rundown...
...a slowly weakening storm over northern Shelby and southern Jefferson County from Pelham up to Mountain Brook is moving NNE. It may make it to Trussville before falling a completely apart.
...one east of the Shelby County Airport...
...two cells over Chilton County...west and southwest of Clanton...
...the strongest remaining storm in the state is south of Lynn in Winston County...
The storms will slolwy go downhill over the next few hours...
by Bill Murray
in General Thoughts
The Latest on Ernesto
August 27, 2006, 7:43 pm
Here are the particulars on Ernesto from the 7 p.m. advisory...
LOCATION...18.2N...74.4W...or near the SW tip of Haiti
MOVEMENT...NW-9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 inches
Here is a late recon report...
Vortex Data Message
-----------------------------------------------------------------
---------------
000
URNT12 KNHC 272345
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/23:34:00Z
B. 18 deg 11 min N
074 deg 29 min W
C. 850 mb 1482 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 235 deg 031 kt
G. 127 deg 018 nm
H. 1006 mb
I. 17 C/ 1527 m
J. 18 C/ 1523 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 23
MAX FL WIND 31 KT SE QUAD 23:28:30 Z
It indicates the central pressure is up even further...to 1006 mb. Maximum flight level winds were 31 knots. Ernesto may not even be a tropical storm. But, convection was refiring aroung the northern side of the center and the weakening trend has probably bottomed out. Some strengthening is likely overnight.
No other major changes this evening...
Scan down for further information...
LOCATION...18.2N...74.4W...or near the SW tip of Haiti
MOVEMENT...NW-9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 inches
Here is a late recon report...
Vortex Data Message
-----------------------------------------------------------------
---------------
000
URNT12 KNHC 272345
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/23:34:00Z
B. 18 deg 11 min N
074 deg 29 min W
C. 850 mb 1482 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 235 deg 031 kt
G. 127 deg 018 nm
H. 1006 mb
I. 17 C/ 1527 m
J. 18 C/ 1523 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 23
MAX FL WIND 31 KT SE QUAD 23:28:30 Z
It indicates the central pressure is up even further...to 1006 mb. Maximum flight level winds were 31 knots. Ernesto may not even be a tropical storm. But, convection was refiring aroung the northern side of the center and the weakening trend has probably bottomed out. Some strengthening is likely overnight.
No other major changes this evening...
Scan down for further information...
by Bill Murray
in General Thoughts
Radar Update
August 27, 2006, 7:21 pm
Showers and storms continue scattered across North and Central Alabama this evening.
At 7:15 p.m., the main concentrations were...
...over Limestone and Madison Counties...moving NW. Largest storm in state is near Athens.
...from Fayette through eastern Marion into Winston and Lawrence Counties. One of the strongest storms is about 10 miles east of Fayette. It is very compact.
...Scattered showers extend from Tuscaloosa County through Jefferson, Cullman, Blount, Morgan and Marshall Counties...
...Storms strung from Shelby through Chilton into Autauga, Dallas and Montgomery Counties. The main storms were near the Shelby County Airport...near Clanton...and southeast of Plantersville...
Temperatures are now in the 80s for the most part, with the exception of Tuscaloosa...where it was still 90 and in areas where it rained, like Huntsville where is was 78F and Anniston where it was 79F.
Skies range from mostly clear to generally partly cloudy with a few mostly cloudy spots.
Showers and storms will continue to weaken through the evening hours, giving way to a warm and humid night.
At 7:15 p.m., the main concentrations were...
...over Limestone and Madison Counties...moving NW. Largest storm in state is near Athens.
...from Fayette through eastern Marion into Winston and Lawrence Counties. One of the strongest storms is about 10 miles east of Fayette. It is very compact.
...Scattered showers extend from Tuscaloosa County through Jefferson, Cullman, Blount, Morgan and Marshall Counties...
...Storms strung from Shelby through Chilton into Autauga, Dallas and Montgomery Counties. The main storms were near the Shelby County Airport...near Clanton...and southeast of Plantersville...
Temperatures are now in the 80s for the most part, with the exception of Tuscaloosa...where it was still 90 and in areas where it rained, like Huntsville where is was 78F and Anniston where it was 79F.
Skies range from mostly clear to generally partly cloudy with a few mostly cloudy spots.
Showers and storms will continue to weaken through the evening hours, giving way to a warm and humid night.
by Bill Murray
in General Thoughts
Additional Information and Thoughts About Ernesto
August 27, 2006, 4:22 pm
NOTE: To keep us from having to repeat so much information, please scroll down to see the official 4 pm advisory (CDT) from the National Hurricane Center. It has a list of all the watches and warnings as well as the latest position report, winds, pressure, you name it.
We want to discuss the future path with the usual caution that some of this discussion is for late next week and the track error can easily be 250 miles or more off.
* Tropical Storm Ernesto (sustained winds now down to 60 mph) should regain hurricane status before making landfall on the SE coast of Cuba before daybreak tomorrow. He will again weaken to a tropical storm (see paragraph below about Cuban topography)
* Mr. Ernesto will remain over Cuba for quite a distance emerging off the north coast Tuesday afternoon not too far east of Havana.
* Should again regain hurricane status as he moves NW into the SE Gulf of Mexico and passes near Key West Tuesday night.
* Then it is northward over the Extreme East Gulf and not far off the SW Coast of Florida with a projected landfall near the St. Petersburg-Tampa area Wednesday afternoon.
* Then, a curve to the NNE passing across North Florida, maybe near Ocala and Gainesville and finally to Jacksonville by Thursday afternoon. Across most of North Florida, he will weaken to a tropical storm.
* Finally, still a tropical storm, Ernesto will pass near Savannah and Charleston late Thursday and Friday.
CUBAN TOPOGRAPHY
The east and SE part of Cuba where Ernesto will visit first is very mountainous. The Sierra Maestra Mountains are in that area. The highest elevation in Cuba is over 6,500 feet (for comparison, Mount Cheaha, the highest point in Alabama, is 2,047 feet). He will still have some more mountains to pass through in the very center of Cuba and some of those seem to have elevations of 3-5 thousand feet. We are saying all this because we do not know how much the land friction in those areas will tear apart Ernesto.
He should regain hurricane status between the north coast of Cuba and the Florida Keys.
ALABAMA EFFECTS
If the projected path is correct, we should have no real problems in Alabama. Along the coast there will be the usual scattered showers and thunderstorms Other places like Pensacola, Ft. Walton, Destin and Panama City should not be greatly affected either.
Governor Jebb Bush of Florida has declared a state of emergency for Florida due to the anticipation of Ernesto. A mandatory evacuation for tourists and visitors in the Florida Keys has also been ordered. U.S. Highway 1 leading from Key West north to the mainland should be relatively easy travel through much of Monday and part of Tuesday (other than heavy traffic like our own US-280).
LATE AFTERNOON SPOT REPORTS
Quantimo Bay Naval Station...wind east averaging 17 mph
Port au Prince, Haiti...heavy rain (not a recent report, several hours old)
Key West...mostly sunny, east at 10
Marathon (in the Florida Keys)...sunny, east 10, gusts 16
Long Key...wind east at 9
Miami...mostly sunny, wind SE at 14
FINAL CAUTION
Again, do not put all your eggs in one basket concerning the projected track. Even within 24-36 hours there could be a lot of changes. One thing that adds credence, however, is the fact that almost all of the hurricane models agree closely with the NHC track forecast. That is fairly unusual.
We want to discuss the future path with the usual caution that some of this discussion is for late next week and the track error can easily be 250 miles or more off.
* Tropical Storm Ernesto (sustained winds now down to 60 mph) should regain hurricane status before making landfall on the SE coast of Cuba before daybreak tomorrow. He will again weaken to a tropical storm (see paragraph below about Cuban topography)
* Mr. Ernesto will remain over Cuba for quite a distance emerging off the north coast Tuesday afternoon not too far east of Havana.
* Should again regain hurricane status as he moves NW into the SE Gulf of Mexico and passes near Key West Tuesday night.
* Then it is northward over the Extreme East Gulf and not far off the SW Coast of Florida with a projected landfall near the St. Petersburg-Tampa area Wednesday afternoon.
* Then, a curve to the NNE passing across North Florida, maybe near Ocala and Gainesville and finally to Jacksonville by Thursday afternoon. Across most of North Florida, he will weaken to a tropical storm.
* Finally, still a tropical storm, Ernesto will pass near Savannah and Charleston late Thursday and Friday.
CUBAN TOPOGRAPHY
The east and SE part of Cuba where Ernesto will visit first is very mountainous. The Sierra Maestra Mountains are in that area. The highest elevation in Cuba is over 6,500 feet (for comparison, Mount Cheaha, the highest point in Alabama, is 2,047 feet). He will still have some more mountains to pass through in the very center of Cuba and some of those seem to have elevations of 3-5 thousand feet. We are saying all this because we do not know how much the land friction in those areas will tear apart Ernesto.
He should regain hurricane status between the north coast of Cuba and the Florida Keys.
ALABAMA EFFECTS
If the projected path is correct, we should have no real problems in Alabama. Along the coast there will be the usual scattered showers and thunderstorms Other places like Pensacola, Ft. Walton, Destin and Panama City should not be greatly affected either.
Governor Jebb Bush of Florida has declared a state of emergency for Florida due to the anticipation of Ernesto. A mandatory evacuation for tourists and visitors in the Florida Keys has also been ordered. U.S. Highway 1 leading from Key West north to the mainland should be relatively easy travel through much of Monday and part of Tuesday (other than heavy traffic like our own US-280).
LATE AFTERNOON SPOT REPORTS
Quantimo Bay Naval Station...wind east averaging 17 mph
Port au Prince, Haiti...heavy rain (not a recent report, several hours old)
Key West...mostly sunny, east at 10
Marathon (in the Florida Keys)...sunny, east 10, gusts 16
Long Key...wind east at 9
Miami...mostly sunny, wind SE at 14
FINAL CAUTION
Again, do not put all your eggs in one basket concerning the projected track. Even within 24-36 hours there could be a lot of changes. One thing that adds credence, however, is the fact that almost all of the hurricane models agree closely with the NHC track forecast. That is fairly unusual.
by J.B. Elliott
in Tropical Weather
Ernesto Demoted to a Tropical Storm
August 27, 2006, 3:40 pm
That was expected...here is the full text of the advisory...we will add information...or shorten this post later:
--------------------------
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006
...ERNESTO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT STILL BRINGING TORRENTIAL
RAINS TO HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.5 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI...ABOUT 150
MILES...240 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
160 MILES...255 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MOVE AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI
TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA MONDAY
MORNING.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AFTER
IT MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI AND IT COULD REGAIN HURRICANE
STATUS BEFORE IT REACHES THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW
MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF EASTERN CUBA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...18.0 N...74.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
--------------------------
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006
...ERNESTO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT STILL BRINGING TORRENTIAL
RAINS TO HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.5 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI...ABOUT 150
MILES...240 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
160 MILES...255 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MOVE AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI
TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA MONDAY
MORNING.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AFTER
IT MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI AND IT COULD REGAIN HURRICANE
STATUS BEFORE IT REACHES THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW
MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF EASTERN CUBA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...18.0 N...74.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
by J.B. Elliott
in Tropical Weather
Mid-afternoon Ernesto Notes
August 27, 2006, 3:03 pm
Scroll down for more details on last position and winds, etc. A full update advisory will be issued at 4 pm, CDT
A FEW EXTRA NOTES
+ Satellite pictures show that Ernesto is being affected by land friction as he is centered over the SW extension of Haiti. Probably under hurricane strength now but that will be for the NHC to say in their next advisory.
+ Tons of rain falling over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. No doubt major flash flooding is underway.
+ According to press reports, Governor Bush has declared a state of emergency for Florida due to the future expected path of Ernesto.
+ Officials have ordered a mandantory evacuation for visitors from the Florida Keys. Travel is no problem at this time on U.S. 1 leading from Key West to the mainland. At 3 pm, EDT, partly sunny dry weather was reported at Key West with east winds only 12 mph.
* Remember the hurricane categories? Here they are:
Category One...winds 74 to 95 mph
Category Two...winds 96 to 110 mph
Category Three...winds 11 to 130 mph
Category Four...winds 131 to 155 mph
Category Five...winds 155 mph and greater
A FEW EXTRA NOTES
+ Satellite pictures show that Ernesto is being affected by land friction as he is centered over the SW extension of Haiti. Probably under hurricane strength now but that will be for the NHC to say in their next advisory.
+ Tons of rain falling over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. No doubt major flash flooding is underway.
+ According to press reports, Governor Bush has declared a state of emergency for Florida due to the future expected path of Ernesto.
+ Officials have ordered a mandantory evacuation for visitors from the Florida Keys. Travel is no problem at this time on U.S. 1 leading from Key West to the mainland. At 3 pm, EDT, partly sunny dry weather was reported at Key West with east winds only 12 mph.
* Remember the hurricane categories? Here they are:
Category One...winds 74 to 95 mph
Category Two...winds 96 to 110 mph
Category Three...winds 11 to 130 mph
Category Four...winds 131 to 155 mph
Category Five...winds 155 mph and greater
by J.B. Elliott
in Tropical Weather
Looking at Alabama--1:45 pm Report
August 27, 2006, 1:45 pm
Scattered showers and thunderstorms (mostly showers) continue mainly over North Central and East Alabama this afternoon.
Some of the heaviest showers were over the Smith Lake area of NW Alabama where Walker, Cullman and Winston County meet.
Movement toward the NNE.
Over East Alabama the scattered (to widely separated) showers were from Cleburne and Calhoun County southward into SE Alabama.
3340 Skywatcher reports 0.63 rainfall at Oxford (near Anniston) in the slow-moving showers.
3340 Skywatcher on the coast at Orange Beach reports 0.70
Temperatures across Alabama varied from only 79 at Anniston (showers) to 90-92 most other places.
Some of the heaviest showers were over the Smith Lake area of NW Alabama where Walker, Cullman and Winston County meet.
Movement toward the NNE.
Over East Alabama the scattered (to widely separated) showers were from Cleburne and Calhoun County southward into SE Alabama.
3340 Skywatcher reports 0.63 rainfall at Oxford (near Anniston) in the slow-moving showers.
3340 Skywatcher on the coast at Orange Beach reports 0.70
Temperatures across Alabama varied from only 79 at Anniston (showers) to 90-92 most other places.