Interesting shots of the top of the big storm that produced F2 tornado damage in Oneonta. The shots were taken in North Vinemont, in the far northern part of Cullman County as the storms were moving through Blount County. The photographer was Melba Beck of Falkville....

Here is the text from the National Hurricane Center on the newly formed tropical depression nine. Fortunately, no threat to land and it should recurve east of Bermuda.

-Brian-

WTNT34 KNHC 272031
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006
500 PM EDT WED SEP 27 2006

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...NO THREAT TO LAND...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE NINTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE
2006 HURRICANE SEASON HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.1 WEST OR ABOUT 810
MILES...1305 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...26.5 N...53.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH

The Wednesday afternoon map discussion video is on the web, and also available on iTunes:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

You can see our long form tornado coverage from this past Friday night on our video vault page:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Pretty interesting; that was quite a radar signature in that storm as it approached Oneonta.

SHOWERS TOMORROW: A very dynamic upper trough and surface cold front will roll through here tomorrow, but with only limited moisture and instability rain amounts should remain on the light side. Looking at the 12z model runs, the NAM/WRF shows 0.18" for Birmingham, while the GFS is slightly drier at 0.16". Due to the cold air aloft and upward motion, there could be some thunder, but severe weather is unlikely due to the dry air in the low levels.

COOLEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON: Cool weather fans will love the weather Friday and Saturday. We will struggle to reach the 70 degree mark on Friday, even with sunshine in full supply. Then, temperatures will really drop Friday night. By daybreak Saturday, most places around here should wind up in the 42 to 47 degree range. It is a good bet that a few of the colder valleys will reach the upper 30s for the first time this season, and I imagine someone will report a little light frost.

But remember, here in late September and early October we can warm up in a hurry, and we will reach the upper 70s Saturday and low 80s on Sunday as the air modifies. The weekend looks dry; we have taken out the chance of showers for Sunday as the system will pass too far north of here for rain.

NEXT WEEK: October will begin with a warm spell; we should reach the mid 80s on a daily basis for the first half of the week. Some spots in West Alabama might even flirt with 90 degrees.

LONG RANGE: As we look out into "voodoo land", the GFS sure wants to keep a long wave trough over the eastern U.S. in the 10 to 15 day time frame, so the warm spell next week looks short lived. Expect several nice shots of cool air in the October 7-15 time frame. If that persistent eastern U.S. trough holds up over the winter, things might really get cold around here in December and January.

TROPICS: The pattern continues to favor systems in the Atlantic remaining over the open water. A nice disturbance around 25N/50W could become a tropical depression tonight or tomorrow, but it will recurve well east of the U.S. mainland. Nothing else around the Atlantic basin extremely interesting right now, but as I have cautioned here before, the season has a long way to go, and SSTs (sea surface temps) are still well in the 80s over the Gulf of Mexico. The good news is that major hurricanes are very rare once you get past mid-October as the water continues to cool down.

Be sure and scroll down to see some cool pictures from our readers, and even some from our own John Oldshue who is on vacation this week in Alaska. I sure enjoyed seeing all the 6th graders today at Chelsea Middle School; they were a great audience. Look for them on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00.

I will have the next map discussion video ready by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

No, these are not pictures from North Alabama, but rather pictures from way up north - from the country where I grew up. I know these are not Alabama weather but they are stunning photos that I thought would be worth the post.

The first picture was submitted by Brandon Harris. Brandon wrote in his email, "Not really a weather related photo, but I wanted to send in a shot from where we're vacationing this week. We are staying at The Sagamore on Lake George in upstate New York. Every day looks like a post card here. We are right in the middle of the Adirondacks, and the leaves are just beginning to change. Hope you like the photo. Thanks, Brandon Harris"

It is a stunning picture post card shot. Thanks for sending it, Brandon.

The second picture is a shot of the top of Mount Washington, NH, with the cog railway in the foreground. Mount Washington tops out with an elevation of 6,288 feet making it the highest point in the northeastern US. And a location with some exceptionally exteme weather. In October, we plan to have a chat with Scot Henley, Executive Director of the Mount Washington Observatory on a Weather Brains episode.

Enjoy!

-Brian-

The ABC 33/40 Weather Team roams far and wide to bring you the latest weather research. These images come from John Oldshue, who is in Alaska this week. Looks like he is more interesting in fishing than weather research!

The Wednesday morning map discussion video is on the web, and available on iTunes:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

I have also posted about 15 minutes of our live, long form tornado coverage from this past Friday night on the ABC 33/40 video vault page:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Pretty amazing images from our live Pinpoint Doppler Radar as the tornadic storm approached Oneonta from the southwest. The warning process worked wonderfully; everyone in town should have had plenty of time to move to a safe place well before the tornado blew through the town. You can also scroll down and see lots of other weather coverage over the past 10 years.

We will be airing a primetime special in about one month highlighting our ten years of weather coverage here at ABC 33/40; Bill Castle is putting that together right now.

THE ALABAMA STORY: While we enjoy another great autumn day, we will watch the strong disturbance riding down the back side of the long wave trough over the eastern U.S. This will bring clouds to Alabama late tonight, and we will continue to mention the chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm as the surface front rolls through here. While SPC does define a slight risk of severe storms along that front today from near Little Rock to Detroit, the lack of moisture and instability should prevent storms from becoming severe across our state tomorrow. In fact, rain probably will be light as the storms sweep through here in a hurry. Model extraction from the NAM/WRF shows only 0.10" for Birmingham, while the GFS is only slightly wetter at 0.14". I don't think we will have to worry about flash flooding, needless to say.

Following the front, some of the coolest air so far this season rolls in here tomorrow night and Friday. The NAM/WRF model has dropped our high to only 69 on Friday, while the GFS shows 71 despite returning sunshine. By Saturday morning, we will be well down in the 40s, and I fully expect some of the cooler valleys across North Alabama to reach the upper 30s for the first time this season. Maybe a little frost? I sure can't rule it out for the coldest spots.

WEEKEND THOUGHTS: Saturday should be a dry day with a good supply of sunshine. A disturbance will pass north of Alabama Sunday, and the GFS keeps us dry, and we can probably drop that slight risk of a shower we have in the forecast.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS has backed off a bit on the strength of the upper ridge expected over the Deep South next week, and accordingly the temperatures have come down as well. But, I still expect afternoon readings to be a tad above normal, in the low to mid 80s, with the upper ridge in place. Monday and Tuesday look dry; there is some hint a weak front might bring a chance of showers Wednesday (a week from today), but for the moment it doesn't look like a big deal.

TROPICS: Very quiet. The system in the middle of the Atlantic has a chance to develop into a tropical depression, but it will recurve into the open Atlantic well east of the U.S. mainland.

WEATHER PARTY: Some really interesting articles over on WeatherParty:

http://www.weatherparty.com/

One particularly interesting is about a federal investigation into the lack of a tornado warning for the Rogers, MN tornado on September 15 that killed a 10 year old girl.

The KIDCAM season really cranks up this week; I will be doing a weather program this morning at Chelsea Middle School in Shelby County; look for those kids on ABC 33/40 News today at 5:00. I will have the next map discussion video posted by 3:30 this afternoon!