As far as I am concerned, Spring has arrived.

Yes, I know, on the calendar it is still three weeks away, but weather-wise it is otherwise. It will certainly feel like spring for the next couple of days until it turns cooler Friday. Our thoughts always turn to tornadoes this time of year. We consider March, April and the first half of May as our prime severe weather season. We have had some notable tornadoes over the years this times of year.

Wanted to look back on a specific date—May 27. Actually, that is getting a little out of season for tornadoes, but it seems to be a sore thumb day for this area. Back in 1917, 75 persons were killed and 391 injured. Especially hard hit were Pike and Creshaw Counties in South Alabama with 9 dead and 50 injured. That night destruction was widespread across Blount, NW Jefferson, Walker, Tuscaloosa, Bibb, Talladega, Madison, Marshall and Jackson Counties. Around 8:45 p.m. an F4 tornado tore through the Sayre-Bradford area near the Jefferson-Walker County line. 9 persons died in Sayre and 17 in Bradford. The town of Bradford was nearly wiped off the map. So many trees were uprooted, all roads were blocked and runners on foot were dispatched to get help. About the same time, an F3 tornado touched down in NW Walker County. Carbon Hill and Manchester were hard hit. 6 people died in Carbon Hill and 2 in the Kansas community.

Fast forward many years later to May 27, 1973. An F4 tornado touched down NE of Demopolis and was destined to become Alabama’s longest track tornado finally breaking up on the slopes of Mt. Cheaha in East Alabama. On the way it brought devastation to parts of Greensboro and especially to Brent which was 90% destroyed. 72 persons were injured and 1 killed in Greensboro and 5 died with 56 injured in Brent. A little later, another tornado brought devastation to parts of Center Point area.

—J B Elliott

No video update today due to the travel schedule..

Quick note:

*The ongoing forecast looks fine.

*Just a few showers with the front late Thursday or Thursday night. Not much rain in most areas.
*Daytime temps back off about 7 to 10 degrees Friday and Saturday.

*We will continue to mention a chance of showers or storms Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Severe weather or heavy rain seems unlikely at this point.

*Colder air arrives early next week; a freeze looks likely both Tuesday and Wednesday morning with the mercury reaching the 20s.

*Looks like some strong, maybe severe storms in the March 10-12 time frame if the GFS is correct.

*The 12Z GFS shows a major late season cold snap for the eastern and southern U.S. around March 13-15. Looks like winter still has some fight left.

Off to the final Storm Alert 2006 show tonight at Northport... see you there! The next map discussion video will be ready by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

* 70+ mph is how high the wind got in the San Francisco area yesterday. Very stormy on the West Coast.

* 70 is the high forecast for Birmingham today, about 8 degrees above normal. Just think, it was as low as 19 yesterday morning in Alabama, at Hamilton and Black Creek.

* 5 is how old Jason Simpson was when he became convinced he wanted to be a meteorologist. He remembers watching thunderstorms through the screen door at that age. His sister teased and called him a weatherman. "Seems she was right" says Jason. He does not look much older than 5 now. (just teasing)

* 5 is also the number of major Civil War battlefields that Bill Murray still has to visit. Then he plans to start over.

* 7 is the number of spring training baseball games Bill has attended.

* 2 is the number of major league baseball games I have attended in my lifetime.

* 6 is how many months has passed since Hurricane Katrina moved ashore and devastated New Orleans and the Mississippi-Alabama Gulf Coast.

* 15 million is the estimated number of cubic yards of Hurricane katrina debris still to be removed from the Mississippi Coast alone. Can you imagine?

* 19 inches is the San Antonio rainfall deficiency just in the last 14 months.

* 132 days is how long Phoenix has gone without even a sprinkle of rain. A few showers were expected yesterday but it did not happen. There are increasing hopes for rain today and tomorrow but amounts are expected to be 2/10ths of an inch at the most.

* 1.6 inches is till all the snow that Flagstaff has received all winter. One of the most amazing stats I can remember. Flagstaff is in the Northern Arizona snow country. The San Francisco peaks are nearby--the highest points in Arizona along with a ski area. We camped way up on the west slop of one of those peaks one night. It appeared certain that powerful west winds were going to overturn our pickup camper.

* 1.6 inches is also the approxmate "normal" winter snow for Birminghamm. That makes the Flagstaff stat even more amazing.

* 40 below zero was the coldest in Alaska this morning at Wainwright.

* 57 below zero was the wind chill at that same location.

* 4 is how many cups of coffee I have had this morning. Trying to cut back.

* 0 is how many frosted brown sugar cinnamon poptarts I have had since Christmas. Yummy, yummy. I still pause in the isle at the supermarket and talk to the poptarts but i keep moving.

* 500 is the estimated number of shopping carts I have retrieved and returned to their proper place in grocery store parking lots in my life time. Yesterday, I thought I had found a parking place only to find it was blocked by a shopping cart that someone was too lazy to return to the corral which was only 15 feet away. Some people just don't care. One day in a Trussville grocery store parking lot, I grabbed a stray cart that a gust of wind was sending toward a parked car. As I returned it to the corral, a lady stopped to thank me. She said she had just moved here from Germany and said people just did not leave carts in the open where she came from. I don't know about that but it is a nuisiance.

* 1 is how many Storm Alert 2006 programs still to go. It is at 7 tonight in the Tuscaloosa area (at the Northport Civic Center to be exact)

The Tuesday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

I often get questions about the terms we use here, and in the map discussion videos...

540 line?
NAM?
vort max?
NAO?

Here is a great glossary site that should help:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php

That one comes from the NWS in Norman and is really designed for storm spotters, but that should prove helpful as we get into the spring tornado season. I will try to write up my own one day.

MOVIN' ON UP: Spring fever will be running wild today and tomorrow. We expect the mercury to reach 70 today in many commuities, with low 70s likely tomorrow. The NAM is actually printing 76 for Birmingham tomorrow; that seems a little aggressive. We will use the GFS high of 73 in our forecast.

THURSDAY SHOWERS? A weak front will slip in here Thursday evening. We will mention the risk of a few scattered showers, but the system is not impressive with little upper support and limited moisture. Rainfall should be light and spotty.

Daytime temperatures will cool off by about 10 degrees on Friday, with highs back in the 60 to 65 degree range, exactly normal for early March in Alabama.

WEEKEND PREVIEW: Saturday still looks dry with highs in the 60s, and then on Sunday there will be a risk of showers or storms around the state. Looks like our Thursday evening front will be moving northward as a warm front on Sunday. The GFS continues to suggest the best chance of showers Sunday will be over the northern third of the state, north of I-20. Once again, this probably won't be a big rain event.

NEXT WEEK: The pattern amplifies again and cold air drives into the eastern third of the U.S. early next week. Highs drop into the 50 to 55 degree range here Monday, and a late season freeze seems likely both Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Lows should be down in the 20s.

Guess I should mention at this point the average date of the last freeze in Birmingham is March 23, but we have seen freezing temperatures here as late as April 23.

LONG RANGE: The GFS (06Z run) paints a severe weather setup for Alabama in the March 12-13 time frame now, followed by a major late season cold snap around March 15-16. All of this is voodoo, but there is come credibility behind these ideas.

STORM ALERT 2006: The last chance dance is tonight... the final stop on our annual weather tour will be at the Northport Civic Center. The show begins at 7:00... you know the deal... get there early for a good seat! Free shirts for the first 500 people there.

SOUTHEAST SEVERE STORMS SYMPOSIUM: Don't forget the annual Southeast Severe Storms Symposium is this Friday and Saturday (March 3/4) at Mississippi State University. Learn more here:

http://www.msstate.edu/org/nwa/symposium.shtml

If you really like weather and want to learn more about severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, you will really enjoy this event. Starkville is only one hour west of Tuscaloosa, and two hours west of Birmingham.

TODAY: I will be speaking at Meadow View Elementary School in Alabaster today... with the travel schedule I am not sure I will be able to crank out an afternoon map discussion video, but I will do my best. One way or another I will have a blog discussion post by 3:30 or so....