The Monday afternoon web video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Thanks for the Camp Fire Boys and Girls our at Clearview Baptist in Clay for having me this afternoon. Seems like everyone gets back into the regular school routine tomorrow after the long spring break. All good things must end!
UPCOMING ATTRACTIONS
*The sky is clearing nicely this afternoon, and looks like most places will go in the low 40s tonight. Some of the colder valleys will wind up in the 30s, but they should generally remain above freezing.
*Nice warm-up ahead, with 70s tomorrow, and most places around 80 by Wednesday. Dry air will mean ample sunshine on both days.
*Unfortunately, the 12Z model runs are suggesting another heavy rain and severe weather threat for Alabama later in the week. The prime risk seems to be from about 3:00 Thursday afternoon through 3:00 a.m. Friday. The latest NCEP QPF guidance shows about 3 inches for much of north-central Alabama. And, the GFS runs a strong surface low in roughly the same track as the one over the Easter weekend, with the low being near Muscle Shoals at midnight Thursday night. A very deep upper trough will support the surface system, and I am afraid many severe weather parameters will be in place. We will fine tune this tomorrow morning after looking at two new model runs.
*We will have some risk of a light freeze Saturday morning in the colder valleys of north and central Alabama. We have 35 in our forecast, but some cold spots could be closer to 30. I don't think this will be an especially damaging freeze, but it could hurt some of the tender plants trying to come to life here in early spring. The rest of the weekend ahead looks great with lots of sunshine and a warming trend.
I have a pile of e-mail and blog comments on the morning post... I will try to go through all of that this afternoon. Seems like many others agree with the idea of lots of prayers helping Alabama through a very dangerous weather event!
Another Severe Weather Threat?
March 28, 2005, 4:08 pmA Raw Day
March 28, 2005, 7:05 am
The Monday morning web video update is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Today will be a chilly and damp day with temperatures struggling to reach the mid 50s. Hopefully we can see a little sun this afternoon.
Let me highlight up front the possibility of a late season freeze for some people around here Saturday morning. The GFS model output statistics is showing 35 degrees for Birmingham, and if this is correct the colder valleys could reach the upper 20s or low 30s. We will fine tune this number as we get closer to the weekend...
The chilly air on Friday and Satuday will roll in following a sharp cold front due in here late Thursday night. That front will feature the potential for a squall line with strong winds.
Lots of talk in the past 12 hours about the weekend storm system. It never lived up to its potential, and within the weather community there seems to be some finger pointing going on. SPC is taking some heat for the "PDS" tornado watches on Saturday evening that didn't exactly verify, and the tornado watch last night for east Alabama that featured only heavy rain showers.
And, the public is pointing fingers at us, accusing us of "crying wolf". Lots of Easter sunrise services were moved indoors, some people didn't go to church due to the weather threat, and there were plenty of folks on edge through the weekend due to the serious words used in defining the threat late last week.
Let me say up front the criticism is valid. We need to go back and look at why the event did not produce as much severe weather as expected, and SPC needs to do the same. There is no doubt this kind of thing could mean that warnings for the next serious threat will fall on deaf ears. And that is not good.
Having said all of that, those folks in Montgomery yesterday who had serious property damage from baseball size hail, and who watched an intensely rotating thunderstorm moving over the city on radar didn't call this event a bust. It is likely that tornado damage will be found today in parts of Lowndes and Montgomery counties today, but thankfully most of that serious damage was probably in wooded, non-populated areas.
The system over the weekend was extremely dynamic, with many, many severe weather parameters in place. We will take some time this week to look back at hundreds of maps and other data to see why the severe weather was more widespread.
Quite frankly, and some of you might call me crazy, I do believe in my heart one reason for the lack of severe weather was prayer. Read this message from a viewer, and I totally agree with this guy:
"I don't know if you remember me but, I emailed you once before about the power of prayer and the lack of tornadoes during potent weather situations. Once again, I have to give God the glory for what has taken place during this event. You have to admit that only the grace of God could have delivered us from all of the ingredients that were in place for a significant severe weather outbreak. I know there will be a lot of people who will say that weather forecasters made too big of a deal of of nothing but, I know that you report the facts and the potential of what can occur based on those facts. God can allow the obvious to occur based on those facts or he can chose to calm the winds. I'm not saying that my prayers hold any more weight than anyone else's but, once again I prayed that He would continue to be faithful in protecting us as He has the other times I have asked this same thing of Him. I know I was not alone in my prayers as I am quite certain that you and many others pray the same type of prayer whenever you see such dangerous data. I am just so thankful that all things must go through God before they are allowed to happen. That He is in control of all things. To God be the glory. "
He really has a point, and I am complete agreement. To all those who prayed for the safety of our state this weekend, I am thankful....
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Today will be a chilly and damp day with temperatures struggling to reach the mid 50s. Hopefully we can see a little sun this afternoon.
Let me highlight up front the possibility of a late season freeze for some people around here Saturday morning. The GFS model output statistics is showing 35 degrees for Birmingham, and if this is correct the colder valleys could reach the upper 20s or low 30s. We will fine tune this number as we get closer to the weekend...
The chilly air on Friday and Satuday will roll in following a sharp cold front due in here late Thursday night. That front will feature the potential for a squall line with strong winds.
Lots of talk in the past 12 hours about the weekend storm system. It never lived up to its potential, and within the weather community there seems to be some finger pointing going on. SPC is taking some heat for the "PDS" tornado watches on Saturday evening that didn't exactly verify, and the tornado watch last night for east Alabama that featured only heavy rain showers.
And, the public is pointing fingers at us, accusing us of "crying wolf". Lots of Easter sunrise services were moved indoors, some people didn't go to church due to the weather threat, and there were plenty of folks on edge through the weekend due to the serious words used in defining the threat late last week.
Let me say up front the criticism is valid. We need to go back and look at why the event did not produce as much severe weather as expected, and SPC needs to do the same. There is no doubt this kind of thing could mean that warnings for the next serious threat will fall on deaf ears. And that is not good.
Having said all of that, those folks in Montgomery yesterday who had serious property damage from baseball size hail, and who watched an intensely rotating thunderstorm moving over the city on radar didn't call this event a bust. It is likely that tornado damage will be found today in parts of Lowndes and Montgomery counties today, but thankfully most of that serious damage was probably in wooded, non-populated areas.
The system over the weekend was extremely dynamic, with many, many severe weather parameters in place. We will take some time this week to look back at hundreds of maps and other data to see why the severe weather was more widespread.
Quite frankly, and some of you might call me crazy, I do believe in my heart one reason for the lack of severe weather was prayer. Read this message from a viewer, and I totally agree with this guy:
"I don't know if you remember me but, I emailed you once before about the power of prayer and the lack of tornadoes during potent weather situations. Once again, I have to give God the glory for what has taken place during this event. You have to admit that only the grace of God could have delivered us from all of the ingredients that were in place for a significant severe weather outbreak. I know there will be a lot of people who will say that weather forecasters made too big of a deal of of nothing but, I know that you report the facts and the potential of what can occur based on those facts. God can allow the obvious to occur based on those facts or he can chose to calm the winds. I'm not saying that my prayers hold any more weight than anyone else's but, once again I prayed that He would continue to be faithful in protecting us as He has the other times I have asked this same thing of Him. I know I was not alone in my prayers as I am quite certain that you and many others pray the same type of prayer whenever you see such dangerous data. I am just so thankful that all things must go through God before they are allowed to happen. That He is in control of all things. To God be the glory. "
He really has a point, and I am complete agreement. To all those who prayed for the safety of our state this weekend, I am thankful....
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