We have an interesting situation concerning the severe weather threat late tonight and early tomorrow. This happens to be race weekend at the Talladega Superspeedway, and about 50,000 people are on the site now in campers and a variety of recreational vehicles. That leads to two big problems:
*Reaching those people during the pre-dawn hours in the event that severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings are needed
*Where in the world do these people go in case warnings are needed.
The first issue is being addressed by a number of agencies and NASCAR. Deborah Gaither, Deputy Director, Talladega County EMA, advises that the EMA will sound the three nearest outdoor warning sirens that surround the speedway with the normal test siren tone followed by a public address to advise those camping of the approaching weather should severe storms with damaging winds approach. The EMA also urges campers to secure awnings, trash cans, tents, barbecue grills, etc. Anything that could become airborne should be put away or tied down.
Hopefully come of the campers will have a NOAA Weather Radio with them; they will be able to pick up the transmissions from Mt. Cheaha with no problem. And, campers can also sign up for ABC 33/40 E-Warn so they can get the warnings on their cell phones. Here is the E-Warn sign up page:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/ewarnmain.hrb
The most difficult part of the plan is the course of action campers should take. A good warning won’t do much good if people don’t have a safe place to go. The main threat will not be from tornadoes, but damaging straight line winds. And, winds of 58 miles per hour or higher can do some significant damage to campgrounds. Hopefully NASCAR and EMA officials can work together on a plan to get people to a safe place in the event the weather does get dangerous early tomorrow morning....
Difficult Severe Weather Setup
April 28, 2005, 9:58 pmStormy Start To The Weekend
April 28, 2005, 2:56 pm
The Thursday afternoon web video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Check out that amazing wall cloud picture on the video today... amazing stuff.
We have seen a few echoes on radar over north Alabama today, but nothing has reached the ground as far as we know. We will leave the forecast dry and tonight and tomorrow. Winds will really pick up tomorrow out of the south, gusting to 30 mph at times. We will have a few intervals of sunshine, and temperatures should reach the low 80s tomorrow afternoon.
STORM SITUATION: Not much change in our thinking on the next storm event. A long squall line should race through Alabama sometime between midnight tomorrow night and 6:00 a.m. Saturday with the potential for widespread wind damage. If we happen to get a few discrete cell ahead of the line, a few isolated tornadoes are not out of the question, especially over northwest Alabama. SPC has now placed much of north Mississippi, western Tennessee, and northeast Louisiana under a moderate risk of severe storms for tomorrow evening and tomorrow night. This is where a few damaging tornadoes will be possible.
Here are the latest severe weather parameters for us as they peak between midnight and 6:00 a.m. Saturday:
SB CAPE 945
Lifted Index -2.4
0 to 3 km Helicity 427
2M AGL Dewpoint: 66
SWEAT Index: 360
850 mb winds: 59 knots
500 mb winds: 53 knots
Not much change in our thinking. Severe storms and isolated tornadoes will form to the west late tomorrow, with the thunderstorms evolving into a squall line that will race through Alabama. It won't take much to get those 850 mb winds (around 5,000 feet off the surface) down to the surface, and a number of segments within the line could produce winds to 70 mph or greater.
Everyone will need to have a good way of hearing severe weather warnings during the pre-dawn hours on Saturday.
Interesting to note how the forecast rain totals keep coming down; the NAM now only showing about one-third of an inch of rain with the storms early Saturday morning. The storms will simply be moving so quickly we won't see all that much rain. We might even get in the little league baseball games on Saturday!
REST OF THE WEEKEND: The storms will end early Saturday morning, with the sky becoming partly sunny. We have lowered afternoon forecast temperatures into the 60s. The day will also feature a brisk northwest wind from 12 to 22 mph.
Sunday should be a very nice day with ample sunshine and high temperatures in the 70s.
NEXT WEEK: Looks wet at times Tuesday through Thursday. Will fine tune this as we get closer...
Enjoyed speaking to a big group of retired physicians at St. Vincent's Hospital today...
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Check out that amazing wall cloud picture on the video today... amazing stuff.
We have seen a few echoes on radar over north Alabama today, but nothing has reached the ground as far as we know. We will leave the forecast dry and tonight and tomorrow. Winds will really pick up tomorrow out of the south, gusting to 30 mph at times. We will have a few intervals of sunshine, and temperatures should reach the low 80s tomorrow afternoon.
STORM SITUATION: Not much change in our thinking on the next storm event. A long squall line should race through Alabama sometime between midnight tomorrow night and 6:00 a.m. Saturday with the potential for widespread wind damage. If we happen to get a few discrete cell ahead of the line, a few isolated tornadoes are not out of the question, especially over northwest Alabama. SPC has now placed much of north Mississippi, western Tennessee, and northeast Louisiana under a moderate risk of severe storms for tomorrow evening and tomorrow night. This is where a few damaging tornadoes will be possible.
Here are the latest severe weather parameters for us as they peak between midnight and 6:00 a.m. Saturday:
SB CAPE 945
Lifted Index -2.4
0 to 3 km Helicity 427
2M AGL Dewpoint: 66
SWEAT Index: 360
850 mb winds: 59 knots
500 mb winds: 53 knots
Not much change in our thinking. Severe storms and isolated tornadoes will form to the west late tomorrow, with the thunderstorms evolving into a squall line that will race through Alabama. It won't take much to get those 850 mb winds (around 5,000 feet off the surface) down to the surface, and a number of segments within the line could produce winds to 70 mph or greater.
Everyone will need to have a good way of hearing severe weather warnings during the pre-dawn hours on Saturday.
Interesting to note how the forecast rain totals keep coming down; the NAM now only showing about one-third of an inch of rain with the storms early Saturday morning. The storms will simply be moving so quickly we won't see all that much rain. We might even get in the little league baseball games on Saturday!
REST OF THE WEEKEND: The storms will end early Saturday morning, with the sky becoming partly sunny. We have lowered afternoon forecast temperatures into the 60s. The day will also feature a brisk northwest wind from 12 to 22 mph.
Sunday should be a very nice day with ample sunshine and high temperatures in the 70s.
NEXT WEEK: Looks wet at times Tuesday through Thursday. Will fine tune this as we get closer...
Enjoyed speaking to a big group of retired physicians at St. Vincent's Hospital today...
Hang On To Your Hat...
April 28, 2005, 5:59 am
The Thursday morning web video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Interesting mass of rain and storms over Arkansas, Oklahoma, and west Tennessee this morning. Some of this could clip extreme north Alabama at some point today, but I don't expect any rain down this way. The surface air is very dry this morning with surface dewpoints in the low 40s.
Winds will really pick up over the next 36 hours in advance of the storms we expect tomorrow night. Winds today will gust to 25 mph, and tomorrow those gusts could reach 35 mph during the afternoon.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL: We are still looking at a line of severe storms moving through Alabama late tomorrow night and early Saturday morning. Sure looks like the storms will blow through in the ole midnight to 6:00 a.m. time frame. We still expect the primary threat to come from damaging straight line winds with the line.
Here are the severe weather parameters for midnight tomorrow night:
SB CAPE 775
2M AGL Dewpoint 65
Lifted Index -2.7
SWEAT Index 406
Total totals 49.9
850 mb wind speed: 62 kts
500 mb wind speed: 63 kts
Needless to say, the 850 wind is the number that really stands out here. The low level jet will really be screaming, and it won't take much to get those winds down to the surface with the squall line.
The surface dewpoint question is a valid one... you really want to see dewpoints of 65 or higher for a significant severe episode this time of the year. Don't see any numbers like that around here now, but with those howling winds tomorrow the dewpoints should rise rather quickly.
So, again, our main concern is a long, fast moving squall line that races through here sometime from midnight tomorrow night through 6:00 Saturday morning. If you have friends in RVs or campers at the Talladega Superspeedway, but sure and let them know of the threat.
REST OF THE WEEKEND: Models are trending cooler, and we will have to lower high temperature forecasts for Saturday on the next forecast update. Looks like highs on Saturday will be in the 60s with a cool northwest wind. Then, early Sunday, we go into the low 40s. Some of the colder spots might even reach the upper 30s.
Sunday should feature ample sunshine and daytime temperatures recovering into the 70s.
NEXT WEEK: Rain should begin on Tuesday as an inverted trough sets up across the deep south. There would be a few wet periods on Wednesday and Thursday as well....
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Interesting mass of rain and storms over Arkansas, Oklahoma, and west Tennessee this morning. Some of this could clip extreme north Alabama at some point today, but I don't expect any rain down this way. The surface air is very dry this morning with surface dewpoints in the low 40s.
Winds will really pick up over the next 36 hours in advance of the storms we expect tomorrow night. Winds today will gust to 25 mph, and tomorrow those gusts could reach 35 mph during the afternoon.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL: We are still looking at a line of severe storms moving through Alabama late tomorrow night and early Saturday morning. Sure looks like the storms will blow through in the ole midnight to 6:00 a.m. time frame. We still expect the primary threat to come from damaging straight line winds with the line.
Here are the severe weather parameters for midnight tomorrow night:
SB CAPE 775
2M AGL Dewpoint 65
Lifted Index -2.7
SWEAT Index 406
Total totals 49.9
850 mb wind speed: 62 kts
500 mb wind speed: 63 kts
Needless to say, the 850 wind is the number that really stands out here. The low level jet will really be screaming, and it won't take much to get those winds down to the surface with the squall line.
The surface dewpoint question is a valid one... you really want to see dewpoints of 65 or higher for a significant severe episode this time of the year. Don't see any numbers like that around here now, but with those howling winds tomorrow the dewpoints should rise rather quickly.
So, again, our main concern is a long, fast moving squall line that races through here sometime from midnight tomorrow night through 6:00 Saturday morning. If you have friends in RVs or campers at the Talladega Superspeedway, but sure and let them know of the threat.
REST OF THE WEEKEND: Models are trending cooler, and we will have to lower high temperature forecasts for Saturday on the next forecast update. Looks like highs on Saturday will be in the 60s with a cool northwest wind. Then, early Sunday, we go into the low 40s. Some of the colder spots might even reach the upper 30s.
Sunday should feature ample sunshine and daytime temperatures recovering into the 70s.
NEXT WEEK: Rain should begin on Tuesday as an inverted trough sets up across the deep south. There would be a few wet periods on Wednesday and Thursday as well....
Page :
1