Not trying to write a gloomy story today, but the good old USA is not only the world capitol for tornadoes, but seemingly in the last year or so it was also the world capitol for tropical storms and hurricanes.

The 2005 hurricane season set all sorts of records, including the most named storms ever. A few weeks ago, the National Hurricane Center, doing a postmortem on the 2005 season, determined that a late season storm in the far Eastern Atlantic was semi-tropical in nature and it became the 28th one of the season. There were 15 hurricanes, including 7 major hurricanes. Six tropical storms or hurricanes struck the USA.

How can we ever forget the names Katrina, Rita and Wilma—just to name a few? They will go down in history.

All indicators point to another active season ahead (hurricane season starts officially June 1). It may not be as active as last season, but it is too horrible to even think about another major hurricane striking Florida or anywhere along the Gulf Coast. Even a weaker hurricane would be a tragedy for the Louisiana-Mississippi-Alabama coast where recovery is far from complete from the last storms. Let’s just hope and pray that they will stay out to sea this year.

There is no place in the world that has more tornadoes than the good old USA from east of the Rockies across the Plains into the Midwest and here in the SE. We have already had 591 tornado reports this year. Of course, those will be reduced somewhat after final inspections. Last year at this same time, the final count stood at only 239. The USA has seen 49 fatalities in the first four months of this year as compared to 38 for all of last year and 36 in 2004.

Our first tropical storm name of the year will be Alberto. Let’s hope he never makes it to hurricane strength.

-J.B. Elliott

The Friday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

After a wonderful day today, our weather will change in a big way over the weekend. Be sure and scroll down to read J.B.'s list of low temperatures this morning.

TOMORROW: I still think most of the day tomorrow will be dry. Can't rule out an afternoon shower, but most of the rain will come after dark. Highs should be in the mid 70s in most spots with a mix of sun and clouds.

TOMORROW NIGHT: Rain should increase, especially after midnight. A thunderstorm is possible, but there will be very little instability.

SUNDAY: We will continue to forecast periods of rain during the day. There continues to be a chance of mass of rain and storms over the Gulf coast will block the good inflow of moist air into the northern half of the state; if this happens then rain will be light and spotty on Sunday. Otherwise, it could rain at any time.

The temperature forecast on Sunday is problematic. The GFS continues to show a wedge of cool air moving in from the east and shows a high of only 61 for Birmingham on Sunday. The NAM isn't on that bandwagon; that model has 73 for Birmingham on Sunday. We will pretty much split the difference in our forecast over on the seven day page, but I have a gut feeling the GFS has a good handle on the wedge and it might be correct. If that is the case, some places near the Georgia border like Heflin and Wedowee will hold in the upper 50s all day. Downright chilly for late April.

EARLY NEXT WEEK: The chance of a shower Monday is fairly small, so if the Aaron's 499 has to be moved to Monday I don't think weather will be a problem. Looks like the best chance of rain over the first half of the week will come Tuesday night with a passing front.

LATE NEXT WEEK: Looks like a good round of rain and storms at the end of next week, around Friday May 5. The GFS is suggesting dry weather for the following weekend (May 6-7).

Some big storms right now out in West Texas where tornado watches are up and a moderate risk of severe weather is in place... but nice and quiet here in our weather office. My next map discussion video will be posted bright and early Monday morning by 7:00 a.m.... have a great weekend!

Certainly will not have many more mornings like this till next autumn...so we celebrate with some low temperatures:

37 in Hamilton
38 in Black Creek, 37.7 to be exact
39 at Cullman, Heflin and in Desoto State Park
40 in Pinson and Centreville
41 in Ashville and at Fort Payne Airport
42 in Jasper, Livingston, Gaylesville, Alabaster and Crossville*
43 in Wadley, Anniston, Alexander City, Clanton and Vinemont
44 at Montgomery and Childersburg/Talladega
45 in Meridianville, Muscle Shoals, Albertville, Decatur and Inverness
46 at Shelby County and Birmingham Airports
47 in Huntsville
48 in Selma

* The Crossville listed above is in NE Alabama's Dekalb County. There are two Crossvilles in Alabama--the other one is over on the west side of the state in Lamar County east of Vernon.

16 was the USA low for the Lower 48 states this morning at Marquette and Stonington, Mich.

93 was the national high Thursday at Pecos in West Texas. Spent the night there once during a howling duststorm. Not only did the dust get in our room and settle on our bed, but our bed also had fleas. A fitful night. It was a cheap motel, but the only one in town that had a room available. Got up and spent the rest of the night trying to sleep in an uncomfortable chair. Owner returned our money next morning. One of those red-letter nights that one does not forget. Or is it a black-letter night?

Wanted to pass this note along from Dave Wilson... amazing how many ways you can listen to our podcasts!

"Wanted to let you know and maybe pass along to other viewers via the website that people with a Tivo Series 2 box connected to a broadband connection and Tivo software version 7.2.2 can now listen to the ABC 33/40 Podcast and Weekly Weatherbrains on TV through Tivo. This feature in Tivo is available through the Home Media Feature from the Tivo main menu.

Also, anyone that has a home network with wireless connection such as Linksys broadband router can listen to both on a PSP. Pretty Awesome Stuff!"

You can see a full list of our audio and video podcasts here:

http://beta.abc3340.com/external.hrb?p=wxonthego&w=1

The Friday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Again a reminder we have the map discussion video available on iTunes... along with our daily webcasts. You can watch us on the go!

TODAY: Get ready for another delightful day. Lots of sun and a big warm-up; we should reach the mid to upper 70s this afternoon. Sure am anjoying this crisp morning... at 5:00 the temperature was in the mid 40s at almost all of the observation points over north and central Alabama. Interesting to note that our SKYCAM location at Mt. Cheaha is showing 54 degrees as I write this, about 10 degrees warmer than the lower elevations. Fairly common for this to happen on a clear calm morning.

TOMORROW: Sure looks like most of the day tomorrow (Saturday) will be dry. While we can't rule out a shower by afternoon, the main action stays to the west of the state. A great chance the Saturday race at Talladega will run with no weather problems.

TOMORROW NIGHT: The models continue to slow down the main band of rain with the big, phased storm over the central U.S. Might be after midnight before rain and storms become widespread.

THE WEDGE: You can't ignore the wedge pattern being advertised by the models, and much cooler air will be filtering down the backbone of the Appalachians and moving through Georgia tomorrow night. The models bring the wedge of cool air into Alabama on Sunday; the GFS is showing a high of only 61 in Birmingham Sunday, while the NAM shows 67. No doubt we will need to lower our forecast temperatures on Sunday. Looks like a very cool day for late April, and a wet day as well. Would not be shocked if some places like Heflin and Wedowee hover in the upper 50s all day Sunday, feeling more like a winter day!

SUNDAY: The weather sure looks cool and wet. With the wedge of cooler air in place, severe weather won't be a problem. Another consideration is the possibility of an MCS (mesoscale convective system) moving along the Gulf coastal region. If this happens, it might cut off the moisture flow into our region and really cut down on the amount of rain we get. The GFS is still hinting at this. For now we will just mention periods of rain on Sunday, with temperatures hovering in the low to mid 60s.

Best possible case for the NASCAR fans is for the South Alabama storm complex to shut down the rain up here. Can't promise that, but it is a possibility.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS is coming in drier for Monday and Tuesday of next week... if the 12Z run continues this trend we can back off on the chance of showers. Another wet weather system moves in here late in the week.

LONG RANGE: No sign of any 80s for the first week of May, and possibly into mid-May, as a mean upper trough continues over the eastern U.S.

I will have the next map discussion video ready by 3:30 this afternoon... will be very interesting to watch the 12Z model runs come in. Have a great Friday morning!