Saturday Afternoon Thoughts

Been peeking at weather data this afternoon... had a few questions about weather for the next 24 hours from people involved with the SEC baseball tournament at the Hoover Met, and others getting ready for big events like weddings.

Showers have been basically non-existent today. I did my best in the last discussion here to suggest that rain would not be a big issue today or tomorrow, but that Monday would be the big rain day. Everything still looks that way.

Had a little light rain early this morning with the first impulse, but we should be in great shape tonight. A clear sky, and pleasant temperatures.

The GFS model looks totally out to lunch for tomorrow. The NAM is performing very well in this pattern, and suggests most of the day tomorrow will be dry. I think the SEC title game tomorrow afternoon will be played with only a small risk of rain. Looks like the big rain event will come after midnight tomorrow night into the day on Memorial Day. Monday still looks like the big rain day for the state.

The NAM extraction shows 1.25" of rain here during the next 84 hours, while the GFS goes nuts with 5.03" through 60 hours. I think the NAM is much closer to being accurate. Most places will probably get between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain on Monday.

I don't expect much of a severe weather threat with the rain late tomorrow night and Monday; instability parameters are very marginal and wind fields relatively weak.... Just a wet day with some thunder and lightning. Not great timing, but nothing really dangerous and we do indeed need the rain!