Saturday, May 29, 2004 will always be a red letter day for me. I had been in Baltimore all week, eyeing Saturday as a potential tornado chase day over the Central Plains. On Friday, I called my friends Karen and Gene Rhoden in Norman, Oklahoma. I asked if they were chasing on Saturday. Of course, they were. Karen asked me to join them. So I hopped a Southwest Airlines flight to Oklahoma City. Saturday morning dawned grey with shower and a stiff south wind. It was the warm front coming north. The Storm Prediction Center had the Central Plains under a High Risk outlook.

We met up in Norman about 9 a.m. and headed north about 10:30 a.m.. It looked like the main action would be north and we chose Hutchinson, Kansas as our target. The best shear would be over Oklahoma, but the cap might hold too strong and prevent storm development. Blue skies broke out and temperatures quickly warmed into the 90s as we drove to Ponca City, Oklahoma where we held for awhile with several other chasers. Dewpoints were in the 70s and the strong south wind was really zipping the building cumulus clouds across the Plains landscape. We were waiting on the dryline, which was back over western Oklahoma. It would break the cap eventually. But our worry was that the temperature and dewpoint spreads were getting to be too large for tornadoes to form. Finally, storms began to fire near Medicine Lodge, Kansas and we raced westward hoping to intercept them. The storms were not very organized. It began to look like the day was going to be a high risk bustola. Still, I was enjoying the heck out of the scenery. Even the disorganized storms were beautiful to me and the Plains landscape was a masterpiece. We stopped and enjoyed a lone, isolated thunderstorm that was rotating like mad in southern Kansas. Faced with a decision of whether to turn south and head back to Norman or chase the pitiful little storm we had just seen, we chose to chase.

We stayed on the storm’s heels and caught up with it about four miles southwest of Harper, Kansas. As we pulled alongside, it produced a slender, tapered tornado that was backlit by the setting sun. It would be the first of at least seven tornadoes that we would see that evening.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PELL CITY

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 551 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
PELL CITY. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
PELL CITY BY 605 PM CDT

We will watch for others but these few isolated storm should go downhill with the loss of daytime heating.

Scattered thunderstorms continue over the northeastern part of Alabama this afternoon. The main activity is over the extreme north, over Madison and Jackson Counties. The strongest storm is between Henegar, Sutton and Pisgah near the Jackson and DeKalb County Line. It has shown indications of hail at time.

Another fairly good storm is about 12 miles north of downtown Huntsville.

Closer to us...showers continue from near gadsden to about 10 miles west of Guntersville. This activity is moving slowly north and northwest.

Watch that little outflow boundary sneaking west from st. Clair into eastern Jefferson County. WOuldn't be surprised to see something fire along it.

Alll the storms have one thing in common. They do not last long, quickly raining themselves out since there is little shear today.

Thunderstorms continue to bubble over the northeastern quarter of Alabama.

The strongest storm is over Jackson County. It is just north of Scottsboro. It contains dangerous lightning, heavy rain, gusty winds and even some pretty good hail. Donwbursts are possible today as the pulse type storms collapse. I would not be surprised to see a few reports of wind damage in scattered locations.

A severe thunderstorm warning was in effect for Jackson County, but he storm appears to have weakened a little lately. Other storms are intensifying over the rest of Jackson County and eastern Madison County.

A storm is on the Blount/Etowah County line ten miles northeast of Oneonta. This storm is moving SSW at a little over ten mph. It will affect Altoona, Oneonta and Highland Lake, unless it rains itself out first, which seems to be happening in the latest radar frames.

More strong storms are over Central Tennessee where the NWS Nashville continues several severe thunderstorm warnings.

Scattered storms will continue over Northeast Alabama through the afternoon hours with isolated storms elsewhere.

Showers and thunderstorms are forming over Northeast Alabama this afternoon along an old boundary.

They extend from Madison and Jackson Counties southward through Marshall and into Etowah and St. Clair Counties.

The pulse thunerstorms are small and appear to be moving erratically at first glance, but closer examination reveals that they are moving northeast.

Wind shear values are low, meaning the storms will not become organized. They will basically rain themselves out. But as they do, they can produce strong winds in downbursts. In addition, deadly lightning will be a problem.

Remember the 30/30 rule. If you hear thunder within 30 seconds after seeing a lightning flash, you are within six miles of the strike and are in danger of being struck yourself. Seek shelter in a substantial structure and stay there under 30 minutes after you hear the last thunder.

Most of this activity will remain over Northeast Alabama, although other isolated storms will develop during the afternoon hours.

It is hot out there. Most locations have now reached 90 degrees. Heat index values are nout rising through the middle and upper 90s. Take care if you are involved in outdoor activities this afternoon. Drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks.

The Sunday map discussion video is on the server at:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

I just hate to see those monotonous forecasts begin again, but the summertime weather pattern across Alabama and the southeastern United States is one typically devoid of traveling systems. So it appears that for the next several days - until the end of the upcoming week - that we will be in a hot, muggy, isolated shower pattern. I'm already getting requests from people for rain after May started out fairly wet.

A strong ridge in the upper atmosphere will be with us through about the middle of the week. The pattern begins to undergo a substantial change then as the strong ridge wekens and moves east while a new trough develops over the eastern half of the country.

As that trough develops and intensifies on Thursday and Friday, the GFS is showing signs of a cold front moving through Alabama on Thursday and Friday. With a nice northwesterly flow pattern aloft, this should set the stage for a change in air mass with drier air for Central Alabama on Friday and Saturday. Morning lows might even flirt with the 60-degree mark.

My big concern, however, is the calendar. Fronts just have a hard time getting here. I really hope the GFS is right, but since the forecast we're talking about is at least 5 to 6 days out, my confidence is not very high.

I hope you have time today or Memorial Day to spend time with your family. I'll be filling in for John Oldshue on the 5 and 10 o'clock news, and I hope you can tune in.

Have a great weekend and upcoming week. God bless.

-Brian-