During my vacation last week, I spent a little time reflecting on the rapid changes going on in the television industry. Things are changing at light speed, and I am not sure everyone in our business understands this. We have to change with the times, or we will become an dinosaur in no time at all.

Change is not really a bad thing; I have experienced plenty of it over the years in my career. When I started playing top 40 music on the radio as a teenager in the 1970s, I was working for an AM station in Tuscaloosa (WTBC) that had a huge share of the young audience in town. I was very thankful to catch the end of the top 40 AM radio era, because just as I left for the world of television, FM took over and AM music stations were falling hard and fast. WTBC is still alive and well today, but with a news/talk format. The days of playing the BeeGees, Earth Wind and Fire, and the Allman Brothers are long gone.

I have also had the fortune of being on television during the “glory days” of local news in the 80s and 90s, when ratings were soaring and resources were almost unlimited. During that time we grew from the days of drawing fronts on a map with a magic marker, to high tech computerized weather operations complete with Doppler radar and in-house computer modeling.

Television stations are now making the change from being “broadcasters” to content providers. Today, you can watch our weather products not only on television, but at your convenience on the Internet with our webcasts and map discussion videos. You can listen to our forecasts not only on the radio, but with our podcasts which can be played on any computer or MP3 player. And, you can read our thoughts on the “blog” or web log. And, this is only the tip of the iceberg. More thoughts tomorrow…

NHC has upgraded TD number two to tropical storm Bret... see more on the tropical page:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.hrb

NHC has upgraded the system in the Bay of Campeche to tropical depression two. It might become tropical storm Bret before it moves into Mexico late tonight... it won't affect our weather here in any way.

Get the latest advisories on our tropical page:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.hrb

Doppler radars have been one of the biggest advances in meteorology during my 38 years as a meteorologist. So I my interest was really piqued by a study published in the June issue of Weather and Forecasting from the American Meteorological Society. That study finds that the Doppler radars in use by the National Weather Service since the early 1990s are saving nearly 80 lives a year that might otherwise be lost to tornadoes.

The relatively new radars allowed forecasters to issue warnings for 60 percent of tornadoes, up from 35 percent before the instruments were installed. The average lead times also rose over 4 minutes; lead time is the time between warning issuance and initial touchdown of a tornado.

The authors of the study, Kevin M. Simmons of Austin College in Sherman, Texas, and Daniel Sutter of the University of Oklahoma, looked at 14,979 tornadoes that struck in the United States between 1986 and 1999. Of those 7,900 occurred before the new radars were installed and 7,079 took place afterward. They rated the tornadoes by size, distance traveled, population density where they struck and other factors and compared the damage done before and after the modern radars were installed.

They concluded that 79 fatalities and 1,050 injuries per year have been avoided because of the Doppler radars.

National Weather Service Director during the development and implementation of the Doppler radar network, Elbert W. "Joe" Friday, said the finding "really does validate the modernization."
Dr. Friday, who was not part of the research team for this study, said, “The lifesaving makes all the effort worthwhile.”

The study noted that for all tornadoes, the percentage of tornadoes for which warnings were issued jumped from 35 percent to 59.7 percent.

More interesting was the finding that for the most powerful storms, F5 on the Fujita-scale, the warning rate went from 80 percent to 100 percent. The improvement was just as obvious for Category 4 twisters with a warning rate climbing from 64.2 percent to 93.5 percent.

Warning lead times also improved. For all tornadoes, the amount of warning lead time went from 5.3 minutes to 9.5 minutes. But for Category 5 storms it jumped from 11.7 minutes to 16.2 minutes, an improvement of almost 50 percent. For F4 tornadoes the warning time nearly doubled from 8.6 minutes to 15.0 minutes.

Doppler radars differ from older, conventional radars with their ability to measure how the air is moving in thunderstorms. The thunderstorms that produce tornadoes are filled with rain, hail, and often debris that these radars can detect and measure.

This study sure makes me feel good to be a meteorologist. Let's hope that future improvements such as phased-array radar will see this same kind of enhancement in warnings.

-Brian-

Here are some updated rain totals as of 2:45p.m.

Legion Field (Birmingham) 1.29"
Anniston 0.96" (Noble Street)
Dearmanville 0.94"
North Auburn 0.46"
Holt Lock and Dam 0.31" (Tuscaloosa County)
Clanton 0.18"
Gadsden 0.09"
Riverchase 0.02"

The Tuesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Some pretty impressive downpours are over parts of the Birmingham metro area as I write this post. While we have only measured 0.01" at our studio location in Riverchase (not too far from the Galleria), our Legion Field weathernet has picked up 1.04", and the rain is still falling heavily. The storms are moving only slowly to the north, and I would imagine we have some temporary flooding in progress.

Over at Anniston on Noble Street, the total so far is 0.96". The other observation points are mostly dry as the hit and miss pattern of afternoon storms unfolds again today.

We expect a trend toward decreasing showers and storms and increasing heat for the rest of the week as the big heat bubble over the nation's midsection tries to nose into Alabama. Mid 90s still look likely on Thursday and Friday, with any afternoon storms being rather isolated.

HOLIDAY WEEKEND: A surface front will hang up, and ultimately wash out near the Alabama/Tennessee border region on Saturday and Sunday. It might enhance the formation of afternoon storms over the northern third of the state, but generally speaking we expect typical summer weather for the weekend. Partly sunny and very warm days with a few spots seeing a passing afternoon shower or storm. Temperatures should top out close to 90 degrees, about normal for early July in Alabama.

TROPICS: The disturbance in the Bay of Campeche will move westward into Mexico tonight... the models show the thing actually emerging into the Eastern Pacific in a day or two. The clouds over the Gulf are in association with a tropical wave; winds over the system are too harsh for tropical storm formation.

Down the road, the GFS hints at some type of tropical system in the Atlantic, off the east coast of the U.S., in the June 7-12 time frame. Too early to tell if it is bogus or not, but if it does happen to form it will not be an issue here in Alabama.

Thanks to the kids at the Kids Kollege at Bevill State in Sumiton today; Brian Peters and I really enjoyed out visit; they will be on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40. Tonight I will have the pleasure of handling emcee duties at the annual ASA of Alabama industry awards at The Club; the ASA is the American Subcontractors Association. I have been doing this for the ASA of Alabama for about 10 years now, and I always enjoy seeing lots of old friends!

The ABC 33/40 Podcast for Tuesday afternoon, June 28 is now being served by our RSS feed.

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Just a quick weather update...with the Scrushy Trial verdict coming in right now, it's up in the air at exactly what time the noon forecast will get on television!

Showers are developing all over Central Alabama, as of 11:32 this morning, the radar showed a broken line of showers with some heavy downpours from Remlap in Blount County southwestward into the Meridian, Mississippi area. Another batch of showers is developing just south of there, and as I type I am watching a shower developing on Towerlink 33/40 in north Anniston!

Some of these showers will grow into thunderstorms as we continue to heat up this afternoon. Temperatures are already in the middle 80s, and towering cumulus clouds are shooting up all over the place. Keep your rain gear with you for the rest of the afternoon!

The forecast for the next few days remains unchanged. We're looking for hot, humid weather through the weekend with only minimal rain chances for Thursday and Friday. By Friday night and Saturday, a weak cool front could spark a few storms, but hit-or-miss storms still describes the forecast for the 4th of July weekend ahead!

ABC 33/40 is live with continuing coverage of the Richard Scrushy Verdict. The verdict has come in. Tune to ABC 33/40 for the latest on the trial.

The Tuesday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Wow... I see Jason Simspon posted the audio podcast at 3:45 a.m. Guess I shouldn't gripe about having to get up at 4:52 a.m... that is when my alarm clock goes off every morning. Of course, Jason doesn't have to work the TV night shift, however!

Hey, sleep or no sleep "life goes on" as J.B. says...

The ole "tropical plume" is the interesting feature this morning... you can clearly see that on satellite mages. The 300mb wind chart shows a wind max at jet stream level running from the Gulf up through the southeast U.S., with the deepest moisture over east and south Alabama, eastward into Georgia and the Carolinas. With stronger winds aloft, there should not be any tropical development in the northern Gulf despite the unsettled conditions.

We should mention that storms are more concentrated in the far southwest Gulf of Mexico, down in the Bay of Campeche, and some of the models hint at a surface low forming in that area. But, all of the models move it into Mexico, so it won't have much time to get its act together.

Guess we will roll with the flow in the forecast here today and tomorrow; warm and humid with a mix of sun and clouds and, of course, scattered showers and storms. The best coverage of the showers should be along and east of I-65, but we can't rule out a few isolated storms over the western side of the state.

The weather on Thursday and Friday looks hotter and drier as the heat bubble to the west tries to nose in here. The models are showing mid 90s on those days, and we will bump up our forecast high temperatures as well. Warmer air aloft should keep afternoon showers and storms rather isolated on those days.

HOLIDAY WEEKEND: A fairly strong system up north, around the Great Lakes, will push a "cold front" down this way, but it will stall out near the Alabama/Tennessee border. This feature might enhance afternoon storm formation over the northern third of the state on Saturday and Sunday, but there is no upper support and for now we won't vary much from the standard summer formula in our weekend forecast. High temperatures should be close to 90 over the holiday weekend with scattered afternoon showers and storms.

WAY DOWN THE ROAD: The 00Z run of the GFS wants to develop a tropical system out in the Atlantic in the July 8-13 time frame, well off the east coast of the U.S. Probably bogus, but we will watch for trends.

Headed up to Sumiton today to Bevill State to speak to kids in a summer school program today; I will be back in the office for the afternoon video which will be posted by 3:30. Have been back in the office for a full day now after the vacation week and I have a much better grasp of whats going on... it always takes a day or so to catch up!

The ABC 33/40 Podcast for Tuesday, June 28 is now being served by our RSS feed.

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