Ernesto was still struggling over Eastern Cuba late tonight. May be generous to still call him a tropical storm, however, the NHC is still using 40 mph as the sustained winds.

He was moving WNW at 12 mph from a position 20 miles north of Camaguey or about 520 miles SE of Key West. Latest NHC track forecast has been shifted westward slightly.

* Through the Central Florida Keys to west of Miami late Tuesday
* North to near Lake Okeechobee, to Daytona and offshore for awhile and then back on land north of Charleston Thursday evening.
* Continuing north to the North Carolina-Virginia border Thursday evening.
*Then into Maryland

5 to 10 inches of rain for East and South Florida and the Keys through Wednesday
Ernesto may slow down over the Mid-Atlantic states and that could spell trouble with heavy rains

Ernesto will not have much of a chance regaining hurricane status but that is not sealed in stone.

During the last hour, they have decreased in number and intensity: At 10:20 pm, the main ones were:

* Near Florence
* South Lawrence County
* South Lamar County

Moving ENE

A new one has formed over North Calhoun County

They are increasing in number.

At 9:20, the storms extended from the Florence-Cherokee area of Extreme NW Alabama southward to Lamar and Fayette County. Strongest storms:

* NW Fayette County (these were in Lamar County earlier)
* Along Winston-Marion County line
* West Colbert County

Moving NE

Western Winston and NW Walker County will be getting some heavy rain between now an 10 PM.

An interesting message from Amy, one of our blog readers in Lamar County:

Just a quick comment on the storm that came through Lamar County earlier. I live in the Pine Springs Area north of Sulligent and the lightning was unreal, but the rain was much needed. We are still hearing lots of thunder and present and still seeing some lightning.

Thunderstorms are increasing over North Mississippi and West Tennessee.

And a strong thunderstorm has formed over West Alabama in Lamar County. Lots of lightning.

Moving NE

He is still fooling around inland over eastern Cuba.

In fact he has been moving toward the WNW instead of NW

Barely a tropical storm with sustained winds of 40 mph

PERSONAL OPINION: He may be a little below tropical storm strength. NHC is holding onto 40 mph, however.

They still expect him to move NW off the Cuban north coast tonight and start growing again.

(Scan down to some earlier posts for a lot more detail. The track forecast has changed little since the last posting.)

These images were taken in March, a good six months after Katrina rolled through the Mississippi coast. Thanks to Michelle Miklik for the images:

Thanks to Scott McClellan in Ocan Springs for this note...

Just to let you know, many memorial services are scheduled here along the MS Gulf Coast tomorrow morning. Here in Ocean Springs, we are having a sunrise memorial, along with others in Biloxi, Gulfport and Pass Christian MS.

I'm asking the readers to please remember the folks that we lost (7 in my neighborhood), and those that are still struggling with the memories. I look forward to tomorrow being a day of remembrance and reflection....but also of hope.

A nice shower passed through Etowah County today, dropping over 1/2 inch of rain on places like Glencoe. These images are from ABC 33/40 Skywatcher Michelle Miklik:

Late this afternoon, Tropical Storm Ernesto (barely a tropical storm) was over Eastern Cuba but near the north coast. Sustained winds only 40 mph.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Lower East Coast of Florida, all of the Keys and around to the SW Florida Coast (Gulf of Mexico side) A Hurricane Watch extends a little further northward on the east coast...extending north of the Tropical Storm Warning.

Ernesto will make landfall again on the SE Florida Coast near Miami and continue northward over the SE part of the state remaining near the coast.

Projected to leave Florida and emerge in the Atlantic near Melbourne early Wednesday afternoon.

Could possibly regain hurricane strength over the open water as he passes offshore east of Daytona, Jacksonville and Savannah.

Then finally, still another landfall on the South Carolina Coast early Thursday afternoon. From there, northwward through Eastern North carolina, Central Virginia as a depression, and finally into Central Pennsylvania Saturday afternoon.

Could be a big rain producer for those inland areas.

A FEW SPOT REPORTS AT 5 PM CDT
Melbourne...mostly sunny, wind east 13
Marathon...mostly sunny, east 10, gusts 16
Fort Lauderdale...wind east 15

Posted those spot reports just to show that nothing going on yet in South Florida

The Monday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://www.jamesspann.com

KATRINA: Be sure and scroll down and read all of Bill Murray's posts on Katrina... excellent stuff. I will post some notes tonight here on the blog. Also... WWL-TV in New Orleans will cover the one-year anniversary of Katrina tomorrow with 18 hours of wall-to-wall coverage, streamed live on WWLtv.com beginning at 3 a.m. CDT. Their work in the weeks following the storm was nothing short of remarkable, and it will be interesting to watch some of that as time allows. We carried WWL-TV on our digital stations (33.2 and 40.2) for a few weeks after the storm so those here from New Orleans could watch their local news station.

Click on the link below to read our blog posts from one year ago today:

http://www.jamesspann.com/bmachine/calendar/wxtalk/28,08,2005

ERNESTO: If you recall here late last week, I wrote this: "When it comes to tropical systems, expect the unexpected". TPC continues to shift the track to the east.... it should be near Miami tomorrow night, and then it moves parallel to the Atlantic coast to a point near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina by Saturday morning. The system is over the eastern tip of Cuba now, and sustained winds are barely at tropical storm strength. There is a chance it becomes a minimal hurricane by the time it reaches South Florida, but the threat of flooding and isolated tornados will be the biggest problem.

There is some school of thought now that Ernesto might stall somewhere around the North Carolina Outer Banks this weekend; that would mean some big time flooding for parts of the mid-Atlantic coast if that happens.

THE ALABAMA STORY: The number of showers and storms on radar right now isn't exactly overwhelming, but showers and storms should increase tomorrow afternoon as a surface front approaches from the northwest.

The interaction with Ernesto is an interesting issue for the latter half of the week. The GFS keeps relatively moist air over the eastern third of Alabama Wednesday through Friday, with drier air over the western two-thirds of the state. By Thursday and Friday, I guess we can hang on to a chance of a shower for East Alabama, but the rest of the state should be mostly dry. Highs will drop back into the 80s for most places Wednesday through Friday north flow on the west side of Ernesto.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND: Rain should not be a big issue across Alabama over the upcoming holiday weekend, although we can't totally rule out the chance of a few showers, especially over the eastern third of the state. Highs will be in the 85 to 89 degree range, with lows in the 68 to 71 degree range.

I enjoyed seeing my friends at Pleasant Ridge Baptist Church in Hueytown this morning; that have a wonderful food ministry called "Jesus Pantry" that helps many people in need here in our area. I will have the next map discussion posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!