As we rapidly approach my favorite month of the year, I am sure looking forward to a little preview of the cooler days ahead. The cold front slipping in here today will bring temperatures down into the 50s for most places tomorrow morning, and most likely some upper 40s for the cooler valleys of north Alabama. I am using 54 for a low in the forecast package for the Birmingham metro area; if we reach 54 degrees that will be our coolest temperature since May 25. The upper air pattern suggests this cool snap won’t last long, with temperatures back to levels above normal as we begin the month of October this weekend, and lasting into next week.

Looking ahead to October, the normal high is 80 and the normal low is 57 as we begin the month on Saturday. But, by Halloween, that normal high drops to 70, and the normal low is down to 46. October is typically our driest month of the year; the average for Birmingham is only 3.23”. Our wettest October in Birmingham came in 1995 when 11.90” was measured, most of that was thanks to hurricane Opal.

We can have long periods of delightful weather, with a cobalt blue sky, pleasant days, and chilly nights. The coldest temperature for the month is 27 degrees, measured on October 28, 1957 and October 29, 1952. Our first frost usually shows up toward the end of the month, but the average date of the first freeze here is November 8. Our earliest freeze on record was on October 18, 1948.

So, what will October 2005 bring? There is no doubt the beginning of the month should feature warmer than normal temperatures, and I have concern that there will be more tropical trouble in the Gulf of Mexico before the month is over. But, there are signs of our first real pop of chilly air arriving here in the 12 to 16 day time frame. I say bring it on!

The Wednesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Interesting to note a few isolated showers have broken out this afternoon over east Alabama. We will continue to mention isolated showers tonight and tomorrow morning in advance of the long awaited cold front. Winds will pick up out of the north during the day tomorrow, and most places won't see 80 degrees as cooler air moves into the state. Any showers should be over by midday as the dry air takes over.

Unfortunately, this won't be a long term cool spell. After lows in the 47 to 55 range Friday morning, we warm back up over the weekend with low to mid 80s on Saturday and Sunday. For now we will maintain a dry forecast over the weekend, but humidity values will be little higher.

Next week, looks like most of the short wave energy will be shunted well to the north of Alabama, so temperatures during the day will stay a little above normal for early October. And, there seems to be no significant chance of rain through much of next week.

LONG RANGE: The 12Z run shows a wild looking deep upper low over the southeast U.S. toward mid-month, part of a long wave trough over the eastern half of the nation. Sounds nice, but I am not sure that will happen.

TROPICS: The system in the Caribbean should be tropical storm Stan within the next 36 hours. Seems like this one is headed for the Yucatan peninsula, and then toward the Mexican Gulf coast somewhere south of Brownsville, Texas. Can't rule out some trouble for the far south Texas coast, however. Once this thing gets its act together we will have a better idea on the final destination.

We will also be watching for development off the southeast U.S. coast this weekend; some model runs develop a tropical system here and move it toward the Carolinas by the middle of next week.

ON THE ROAD: Off to Oxford for severe weather awareness day at Quintard Mall. I will be doing the weather live there at 5:00 and 6:00... drop by if you have a few minutes. Brian Peters and Jason Simpson are also there; Mr. Oldshue will be here in the office for the rest of the afternoon.

Wanted to pass along this call for help... if you are an amateur radio operator and can volunteer, be sure and get in touch with Greg!

Hello Alabama amateur radio operators,

I'm proud of all the efforts that Alabama amateurs have put in for Hurricane Katrina relief!
Amateurs have served in many roles from working at home to serving on deployments in harsh environments in the field, all roles necessary and important.

Today, there is still a need for amateurs that can deploy to the gulf coast region to provide communications support. The three Mississippi gulf coast counties need amateurs in EOC's, American Red Cross shelters and other locations to provide reliable communications.

Amateurs that can deploy must bring a full deployable HF, 2 meter stations, antennas, mast and accessories. Bring all camping gear and a two-day supply of food and water.
Field deployments are a minimum of 5 days and max of three weeks and some exist in harsh environments.

Send your full contact information, summary of experience, available departure date and deployment duration to the Montgomery marshalling location at:

R871-06RTT-RCO3@usa.redcross.org">DR871-06RTT-RCO3@usa.redcross.org

Thank you for your continued support!

Greg Sarratt, W4OZK
Alabama Section Manager
American Radio Relay League,
National Association of Amateur Radio

Alabama Section web site: http://www.arrl-al.org

The Wednesday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

How about the models lowering temperatures for Friday morning... the GFS shows 50, and the NAM shows 53 for Birmingham Friday morning. The GFS is suggesting that Gadsden drops to 48. That really sounds good, and in respect to the observed temperatures behind the front this morning in Montana and Wyoming I think we will indeed begin to revise our forecast numbers downward as well. Chester, Montana is reporting a frosty 26 degrees as I write this.

We will still mention isolated showers along the front late tonight or tomorrow morning, but I still think most places will remain dry.

The cool snap won't last long, unfortunately... we go back into the low to mid 80s over the weekend as warmer air moves right back in and the upper ridge rebuilds. The weekend looks pretty much rain-free; the chance of a shower is so small it isn't worth a mention right now. Pretty good weather for race weekend at Talladega.

THE LONG RANGE: Looks like the next effort at a cool-down comes around October 8-10 as a nice trough sets up over the Great Lakes, pulling down another cold front this way.

TROPICS: We might have two new named storms ahead in coming days. The disturbance over the Caribbean has a decent chance at becoming tropical storm Stan within 48 hours. This one seems to be headed for either Mexico, or the southern tip of Texas.

The GFS is hinting at some kind of development off the southeast U.S. coast over the weekend, with that system moving toward the Carolinas by the middle of next week. Could this be tropical storm Tammy? Maybe so.

HEADING TO OXFORD: A reminder today is severe weather awareness day at Quintard Mall in Oxford' so if you are around that area today be sure and drop by and say hello. Jason "Boo-Boo" Simpson will be doing the noon weather live there, and I will be on the air at 5:00 and 6:00 from the mall. Brian Peters and Jason will be there pretty much all day. Read more deatils in the post below this one....

Before heading to Oxford I will have the afternoon map discussion video and blog post finished here.