From the mailbag...

A viewer writes:

“My question is: What is the best way for me to monitor Bham severe weather when there's no electricity? What does your family do to monitor severe weather when you lose electrical power at home (aside from cellphone)? I am an intelligent, well-educated person who has tried to research this question on the internet. And I am still baffled by what my first response should be when my area is in the midst of severe weather AND I lose electrical power.
When I see severe weather developing AND I have electrical power, I immediately turn my TV on to Channel 12 because you provide coverage that is continuous, detailed, and more factual and less hysterical than other channels. At the same time, I also have identified several favorite severe weather websites that I check periodically. But all of this requires electricity.
Am I correct in saying that, when all other forms of getting information (for the average citizen) are cut off by a lack of electricity, the last resort is listening to a radio? I own a weather radio with the SAME alert filtering technology but I still find it to be information overload.”

A great question... One idea is a battery operated TV; those have become fairly inexpensive and are available at many discount retailers.

Of course, a battery operated radio receiver is another way to get weather information when your power is out. But, in this day and age, most radio stations are often voice tracked from announcers who have never set foot on Alabama soil, and are run by computers that only know to “play 20 in a row”. But, there are some exceptions.

Cox Radio here in Birmingham goes to great lengths to cover local severe weather. In fact, they employ our own J.B. Elliott, the great Alabama weather legend, who handles their long form coverage on radio. So, if you can’t see us on TV, I strongly suggest listening to J.B. on 98.7 FM (WBHK/Kiss FM). They often simulcast J.B.’s coverage on their stations at 610 AM, and 95.7 FM. And, Don Dailey and his team do a great job on 104.7 FM (WZZK), along with 106.9 FM and 97.3 FM. Those three stations will occasionally simulcast the ABC 33/40 audio during tornado threats.

They play in Columbia tonight.

At 7 PM, EDT, it was mostly cloudy at Columbia Airport, 79 degrees, and wind SSW 10. Some strong storms passed north of Colunbia in the last hour or so. Scattered other storms were over Western South Carolina.

The NWS is forecasting scattererd thunderstorms tinight,,,about a 1 in 3 chance.

A Severe Thunderstorm Warning was in effect for Montgomery County until 5:15 pm.

Now, the NWS has posted a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Elmore County until 5:45. Elmore County is adjacent to Montgomery County on the north.

At 5 pm, hail the size of nickles was reported near Dickinson Drive and Colesium in Montgomery. There were numerous additional reports of hail that size near the interchange of I-65 and I-85.

That line of showers and thunderstorms, triggered by a southward moving cold front was across South Alabama late this afternoon.

At 4:55 pm, the line (not solid) extended from Chatom and Grove Hill in SW Alabama, northeastward to NW of Montgomery and to near Lafayete in East Alabama.

Moving generally SE...individual thunderstorms moving more eastward.

Strongest storms over Lowdnes and North Montgomery County.

NWS, Birmingham, has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Montgomery County until 5:15.

A few isolated showers near the Tennessee-Alabama border.

AUBURN FOOTBALL
In Columbia, Auburn will be in a key SEC game tonight with the University of South Carolina. In their afternoon updated forecast, the NWS is calling for a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight. Temperatures will fall through the 70s...and into the 60s before the end of the game. with brisk winds. At 4 pm, EDT, it was 84 degrees in Columbia with scattered clouds with wind SW 14 mph. Radar showed a few showers and thunderstorms entering NW South Carolina some 60 miles away from Columbia. (We will update this as gametime gets closer)

ALABAMA
The cold front moving across Alabama has triggered a line of showers and even some thunderstorms across the central pqrt of the state. At 3:30 pm, the line extended from south of Livingston and Demopolis on the west side...eastward to near Prattville, Wetumpka and Dadeville. Moving ESE. A few other showers were over Extreme NE Alabama.

USA CHILL
The coolest part of the nation at mid-afternoon was around the Great Lakes where temperatures were generally in the 40s in the "warmest" part of the day. The coldest in the Lower 48 this morning was 17 at Broadwater, Nebraska.

SIGN OF THE SEASON
At 3 pm, Alabama time, it was a very cold 9 above zero at Alert, the northernmost weather station in Canada. It should be near zero by morning. That is the coldest weather in the far, far north since last spring.

AUTUMN COLOR REPORT
One of our readers in Saranac Lake, in Upstate New York, reports very little autumn color so far. That region has fantastic color in an average autumn.

The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the web, and available on iTunes:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

Yikes... I have been hung up in a big traffic jam on I-459 related to the closing of I-65 due to the Presidential visit today. I sat there for a long time, and I wasn't able to get to Bluff Park Elementary for the weather program. I have rescheduled for Monday of next week... this was a day when you really couldn't get from East Hoover (where I live) to West Hoover during the middle of the day.

I am scheduled to be live today at the BJCC at 5:00 and 6:00 at the Southern Womens Show... I sure hope the traffic calms down there by then; the President is at the BJCC now speaking.

BACK TO WEATHER: So far our front hasn't been able to produce any significant rain. The moisture across Alabama is extremely limited, and we knew rain today would be pretty limited. The front has passed Memphis; their dewpoint is down to 49 with a stiff north breeze. Looks like the front is coming through Hamilton now; the wind at the SKYCAM site up there has shifted to the northwest, and is gusting as high as 20 mph. The dewpont is 55 and dropping.

We will hang on to some risk of a shower during the next couple of hours as the front comes on through, but it sure looks like most places will stay dry.

COOLER AIR TOMORROW: We project highs only in the low 70s tomorrow, even with maximum sunshine, and we go down into the 40s by early Saturday morning. The model MOS products have come in a tad warmer; J.B. has projected an average low of 46 for Saturday morning. Still some outside risk one of the colder North Alabama valleys will reach the upper 30s.

WARMER BY SUNDAY: A big warm-up begins Sunday as we rise into the 80s, and the first week of October looks warm and mostly dry for Alabama and the Deep South. I note the 12Z GFS MOS now shows 91 degrees for Birmingham on Tuesday, and that certainly is possible. Most days should feature highs in the 84 to 88 degree range, and the chance of rain looks very small due to the upper ridge.

LONG RANGE: Still no sign of any big rain producer for Alabama through mid-October on the 12Z GFS. But remember, there is very little skill in a specific weather forecast beyond seven days; anything beyond that time is out in voodoo land. I know there are some web sites that show specific forecasts out to 15 days; don't waste your time looking at them. The true sign of a mature meteorologist is understanding the limits of what we can do. I do show model output beyond seven days on our daily videos simply looking for trends and upper air wave patterns.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Isaac will remain out in the open Atlantic; there is another disturbance near the northern tip of the Leeward Islands with some potential for development in coming days. Models seems to split on that one; some of them take it out so sea, but the BAM set takes it toward the Bahamas and possibly Florida. The upper air pattern change, which will bring warm and dry weather to Alabama next week, could give the Florida idea some credibility. We will keep an eye on it.

WEATHER PARTY: Lots of interesting stuff on our sister site:

http://www.weatherparty.com/

I wonder whats up with the TV weather guy that is out in Chattanooga.

Guess I better hurry up and wrap this up so I can get on the road... it might be 2008 before I get to the BJCC in this traffic. I will have the next map discussion video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

We now have Tropical Storm ISAAC out in the open Atlantic.

Late this morning, he was centered near Latitude 28.2N, Longitude 54.7W and moving NW at 8 MPH. Sustained winds are 40 mph so he is barely a tropical storm.

Again, this should be an open Atlantic storm. He is expected to gradually turn more northward, passing well east of Bermuda, then gradually turning right over the colder waters of the North Atlantic. He should pass well to the SE of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

He may not have time to grow to hurricane strength. That may hurt his feelings.

NEXT NAMES ON THE MENU
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael

We are in no hurry whatsoever to greet them.

The Thursday morning map discussion video is on the web, and also available on iTunes:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

Scroll down and read the post below ths one about "the golden days of fall"... this sure is a great time of the year. But, it is also a time when big rain events are usually far and few between, and today's cold front is not going to be a big rain producer. Despite excellent dynamic forcing, the lack of moisture means light rain today for the state. The NAM/WRF shows 0.23" for Birmingham today, while the GFS is even drier with only 0.10. And, for those of you south of Birmingham, you probably won't see a drop.

The big story with the front is the cooler air to follow. Despite total sunshine tomorrow we will struggle to reach the 70 degree mark, and Saturday morning will be our coolest morning so far this fall. The GFS is showing a low of 44 for Birmingham, but the NAM/WRF is a little warmer with 48. We will trend toward the cooler GFS, but as you all know numbers will be all over the place due to the terrain variation here. I do think a few of the colder valleys will go into the upper 30s for the first time this year, and I bet someone will report a little light frost.

THE WEEKEND: Saturday and Sunday should be rain-free, and a warming trend begins Saturday afternoon as we rise into the upper 70s. We will go into the 80s on Sunday with a partly sunny sky.

WARM WEATHER RETURNS: October will begin with a series of warm days thanks to an upper air ridge building overhead. We will be well in the 80s next week, and a few spots in West Alabama might even touch 90. No rain for most of the week due to the warm air aloft, and the fact that the main storm track will be well to the north.

LONG RANGE: The upper ridge will break down and we will expect cooler temperatures in the October 7-15 time frame. For now we don't see any major storm systems on the board that would bring a risk of heavy rain or severe weather, that stuff usually holds off until November when our fall tornado season begins.

TROPICS: Tropical depression 9 is expected to become tropical storm Isaac today, but it will remain well east of the U.S. over the open water of the middle Atlantic. The rest of the Atlantic basin is relatively quiet.

Busy day ahead; I will be doing a weather program today at Bluff Park Elementary School, and this evening I will be doing the weather live from the Southern Women's Show at the BJCC at 5:00 and 6:00. I should be able to crank out an afternoon map discussion video between those two events; President Bush will be just down the street from us at the Hoover Municipal Complex, I hope I am able to get into the station without too many problems. But you never know...

Enjoy your Thursday and I will try to have the next video posted by 3:30 this afternoon!

We are getting into the golden days of fall. Now understand, we will have a few warm spells in October, but we are fast approaching the time of the year that features long periods of dry weather, cool crisp nights, comfortable days, and fall colors coming to life across the Alabama countryside. Looking ahead to the colder days ahead, the average date of the first freeze in Alabama is November 8, but freezing temperatures have been measured here as early as October 18 (that happened in 194.

The fall colors really come out by mid-October, and tend to peak during the last week of October and the first week of November. The mountains of northeast Alabama really offer some spectacular autumn scenes during those days; I always recommend Desoto State Park and Cheaha State Park for some fine fall color viewing. Desoto is atop Lookout Mountain, near Fort Payne in DeKalb County, and Cheaha is just south of Anniston (the park actually sits in the western tip of Cleburne County).

We installed one of our new SKYCAM units on top of Mt. Cheaha earlier in the year; I have been wanting a live camera up there for a long time. The camera itself is mounted on the roof of the restaurant, and offers a stunning view of East Alabama in all directions. If you have never been to the park, you really need to get up there this fall. One good opportunity is this weekend; the annual Cheaha Arts and Crafts Festival is this Saturday from 8:00 until 4:00; in addition to the arts and crafts show, you can enjoy music, native artifacts, and story telling. There is even a chili cook-off, and I have the pleasure of being one of the judges this year.

Of course, the best part of the park is the setting. You can take long hikes and enjoy spectacular views from a number of overlooks. I will caution you the cabins and chalets stay full this time of the year, so be sure and call for reservations if you plan to spend the night, or several nights. Hope to see you up there this Saturday!