We had a very positive response from our one hour special on ABC 33/40 this past Sunday night. The ratings were far above our expectation, and lots of viewers have thanked us for airing our Storm Alert 2005 show on television. One of our highlighted stories was on our own Bill Murray, who is our weekend forecaster and resident storm chaser. Bill actually went on his first Great Plains storm chase last year, and was very successful. He saw a tornado on his first outing, and seven tornadoes on the second trip in late May. Many viewers have asked about how to get involved in storm chasing.

Here are some important points I made in the Storm Alert road show, but didn’t have time to share on the TV special:

*You don’t “chase” tornadoes in Alabama. Hills and trees here block your view, and most of our supercell storms are of the “HP” variety where rain wraps around the tornado. Visibility is simply too limited in most cases. People chase severe storms in Kansas and Oklahoma simply because they don’t have many hills and trees, and “LP” storms are more common. It is all about visibility. Bill saw his tornadoes in Texas, near the Red River, and in Kansas.

*If you go on a chase in the plains states, get some training. Bill went to workshops and training events for two years before finally making the big plunge.

*Go with someone who knows that they are doing. Hopping in your car with a cell phone and driving to Kansas won’t cut it. This is dangerous business and someone could get hurt. You need weather equipment, amateur radio gear, and experience. Bill went that route (he went with Karen and Gene Rhoden), and it paid off nicely with memories of a lifetime!

Lots of folks have requested a site with model output, SPC products, etc...

Same stuff we use to put forecasts together.

I have had this page up and running for a while, it contains just about everything you want to see:

http://www.jamesspann.com/toolbox.html

Enjoy!

The Tuesday afternoon web video update is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Thanks to the kids over at Deer Valley Elementary in Hoover.... I had a great time sharing the science of meteorology this afternoon.

On to upcoming weather attractions...

We will focus on the Thursday/Friday thunderstorm event this afternoon. Tomorrow will be a nice day, with a partly sunny sky along with temperatures into the low 80s in most places.

Looks like two main rounds of storms ahead... one will come Thursday morning as moisture surges northward, and a cold front associated with the lead short wave (which passes well to the north of us) approaches from the north. We really don't expect any severe weather with this first batch of storms, and most of that rain should be over by early afternoon Thursday.

The main threat of severe storms will come later, and the models continue to slow down the big system. At midday it looked like the greatest severe weather threat for Alabama would be sometime between midnight tomorrow night and 12:00 noon on Friday. And, as I type this, watching the new 18Z model data roll in I have to wonder if almost all of the strong storms will now hold off until during the day Friday.

And, the 18Z NAM is giving us a different surface look, moving the main surface low from Mobile to near Atlanta. This would produce little in the way of severe weather here, but it would set up a really good soaking on Friday. On this track, we also have to wonder if there might even be a few snow flurries on the back side of the low over far northeast Alabama Friday night as temperatures fall into the 30s. Gotta love these wild spring storm systems.

SO... after all of this, I am beginning to believe the greatest risk of heavy rain and strong storms will now come on Friday, between 3:00 a.m. and 3:00 p.m. And, if the latest NAM is correct, the severe weather threat will not be especially serious. BUT, that is just one model run, and the original surface low track would suggest a more significant threat.

As always, stay tuned for updates...

The Tuesday morning web video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

What a beautiful day today; blue sky and sunshine with temperatures warming up into the upper 70s. Doesn't get much better than this.

COMING ATTRACTIONS

*TOMORROW should be dry and warm with temperatures into the low 80s. Then, moist air returns quickly tomorrow night and some rain could break out after midnight.

*MORE SEVERE STORMS? Another major spring storm system forms to the west of the state on Thursday, and we could very well have another significant severe weather threat on our hands. Rain and storms are likely on Thursday, perhaps during the morning, and then we expect a lull during the midday hours. The main round of active weather should arrive Thursday night into the pre-dawn hours Friday morning. If you had to pin me down now, the greatest risk of severe weather could come from 6:00 Thursday night to about 6:00 Friday morning. This, of course, could change.

With the new system, the surface low will pass from northwest Louisiana to north Mississippi and on into Tennessee, a little to the west of the track of the Easter Sunday storm. The upper trough will be deep, and the lapse rates will be steep. The low level jet (a few thousand feet off the surface) should be in the 40 to 50 knot range. That low level jet was really lacking in the Easter weekend system, it should be a little more robust this time.

Instability values rise to over 2000 j/kg over Alabama Thursday evening. The 0-1 km helicity values look a little on the low side now as the instability peaks. Way too early to nit-pick now; we will have a much better idea of how these parameters will play out by tomorrow evening as this system begins get its act together.

No doubt all of the players are on the field; just a matter of where they come together. SPC has defined a slight risk on day 3 (Thursday) from east Texas into Alabama, and they indicate an upgrade to a moderate risk for Thursday will take place on their forecast package tomorrow (they won't forecast anything past a slight risk on day 3).

Those of us in the weather office will have to be careful; after a severe weather threat that was somewhat of a "bust" a few days ago, human nature would tell us to back way off and not even mention severe weather this time. After all, you put your hand on a hot stove and get burned, you don't want to go back there again.

But, like in sports, you have to put the last game behind you and move on. Sure, learn from mistakes, but our job is to tell you what we think will happen, and that is what we will do on this event as we get closer to it.

*SATURDAY MORNING: The GFS MOS product has raised the low temperature forecast for Birmingham to 40 for Saturday morning. We had left the low forecast for now at 35, and we have mentioned some light frost for the valleys. I think most places will stay above freezing, however. Keep in mind this morning places like Anniston, Gadsden, and Talladega were in the mid 30s, so there is no doubt it could be that cold Saturday morning.

*THE LONG RANGE: After the system late this week, looks like the next severe weather threat will come sometime in the April 4-7 range.