Winter Scenes From The Great Smoky Mountains

The long, hot summer isn't too far away, so I thought you might enjoy these pictures sent in by Terry Wallace of Helena:

"We hiked to Mt Leconte last weekend and got to experience the 15 inches of snow on Sunday. It was 22 degrees when we got to the top on Sunday afternoon and 10 degrees Monday morning. The 7 mile hike up the Rainbow Falls Trail in 12 inches of snow took 7 hours.I am attaching pictures from the hike up and Mt LeConte Lodge."


















The Warm-Up Continues

The Wednesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

What a beautiful day. Lots of sun and temperatures well up in the 70s. If you like these warmer temperatures, you will like this forecast package. The GFS MOS is showing 80 degrees tomorrow; while the NAM is suggesting 77. One way or another it will be warm tomorrow with a partly sunny sky.

While we enjoy the nice weather, a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes is possible across the nation's mid-section tomorrow, in the broad area from San Angelo, TX to Chicago, IL.

FRIDAY: The big storm will lift north to the Great Lakes, and the trailing front will slip in here Friday night. With the upper support well to the north and with weakening wind fields, severe weather should not be an issue. Quite frankly, I am not sure we will even get much thunder and lightning. Rainfall totals between one-quarter and one-half inch look likely.

THE WEEKEND: The models are getting slower on the surface boundary pushing through Saturday morning. Guess we might hang on to a small risk of a stray shower Saturday, but they should be few and far between as the sky becomes partly sunny. Temperatures will easily soar into the 70s. On Sunday, the GFS goes nuts and spits out 84 for Birmingham. Not so sure it will be that warm, but I can assure you this weekend won't be cold. I still think Sunday should be mostly dry, although you could argue to include a small risk of a brief shower as the old boundary begins to lift northward.

NEXT WEEK: Another weather system will pass north of Alabama early next week; the trailing front might being a few scattered showers Monday, but rainfall amounts should be light and spotty. Looks like another chance of showers toward the end of the week, but it is the same story. The main system passes well to the north of the state, so the rain shouldn't be all that heavy.

Bottom line is that we don't expect any serious problems with severe storms, flooding, or any kind of late season freeze in the next two weeks. But, don't get lulled to sleep; it won't stay that way all spring.

Sure enjoyed seeing the kids today at Gardendale's First Baptist Church... look for them on the KIDCAM today on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00!

The next map discussion video will be on the server by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow...


WEATHER BY THE NUMBERS--Wednesday 3/29/06

* 87 was the USA high yesterday at Harlingen, Laredo and McAllen, Tex.

* 9 was the Lower 48 USA low this morning at Truckee, Calif.

* 40 below was the low in Alaska at Chandalar Lake

* 36 below zero was the low in good ole Deadhorse

* 4.14 inches is how much rain fell yesterday at Lake Jackson, in SE Tex.

* 0 was how much snow was left on the ground atop Mt. Leconte in the Smoky Mountains this morning.

* 8 inches is how much they still had yesterday morning

* 15 inches was their Monday morning totals. It melts away quickly this time of year

* 2 o'clock Sunday morning is when Daylight Saving Time (DST) starts. It does not end until the last Sunday in October. Woe is me. Speaking only for myself, I do not like DST but I definately respect your opinion if you do. All of the world weather data flows based on GMT (Greenwich Mean Time) and sometimes referred as Z time. This means we have one hour less when preparing our forecast and other public releases because they will be issued on DST. I will be cheated even more next year when DST will go into effect earlier than ever and end later than ever. It starts next year on the 2nd Sunday in March and goes until the 1st Sunday in November. Guess I will have to move to Arizona where they observe standard time all year

* 1 was how many tornadoes touched down ion the entire USA yesterday. It struck 2 miles SE of Merced, Calif., in the central part of the state. Power lines down and a barn unroofed

* 27 degrees has never been recorded in Birmingham after April 19

* 36 is the lowest ever recorded in the month of May

* 32.7 was the low at Black Creek, in NE Etowah County, this morning with widespread light frost

* 2 was how many bowls of cereal I had for breakfast. It was almost tasteless. The empty cereal box tastes better than the cereal.

I hope Weather By The Numbers Has not become boresome. It may have run it's course for interest




Here Come The 70s

The Wednesday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

We will rise into the 70s today, and mild weather will headline our forecast for the foreseeable future. The NAM is trying to hint we might even flirt with 80 degrees tomorrow afternoon. As stated here yesterday, it sure looks like our next widespread freeze will be sometime in late October or November. Bye bye cold weather.

TODAY/TOMORROW: A partly sunny sky for both days, and the chance of a shower is so small it really isn't worth a mention right now. A major severe weather event is possible tomorrow for much of mid-America, in the general area from Texas to the western Great Lakes. SPC has a slight risk defined for that region now; I imagine they will need an upgrade to moderate on future convective outlooks.

FRIDAY: The big storm heads for the Great Lakes, bypassing Alabama to the north. We will catch the trailing band of showers and storms Friday night, which should be weakening as they arrive. Severe weather looks unlikely here, and rainfall probably won't be heavy at all.

THE WEEKEND: We won't see a clean frontal passage with a big surge of dry air, but for now I still don't see any reason to mention a big chance of showers on Saturday and Sunday. I think most north/central Alabama communities will be dry this weekend with highs in the 70s. Partly sunny both days with potential for a low status deck during the early morning hours.

NEXT WEEK: A weak system will pass north of Alabama early in the week, and for now we do not have any showers in the forecast in the Monday/Tuesday time frame. We might have to stick at least a chance of a shower back into the forecast at some point for one of those two days, but it won't be a big event.

Another major storm will move from the Rockies to the northern Plains/Great Lakes region during the middle of next week, but a ridge holds here keeping us mostly dry. The trend for the next two weeks will be for above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall.

TODAY: I am headed up to Gardendale to speak to the kids at Gardendale's FBC pre-school... I will be back in the office for the next map discussion video, which will be on the server by 3:30!


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