New Tornado Watch in effect for parts of North and West Alabama which will be valid until 5 am. It is generally north and west of a line from Aliceville-Jasper-Cullman and Huntsville. (Scan to the bottom of this update to get the actual counties.

Thunderstorms now very intense over West and NW Mississippi. Some may be producing baseball size hail.

Also over NE Louisiana.

First lightning strikes now near NW corner of Alabama.

Tornado reported SE of Shaw, Miss., Sunflower County. Debris reported on U. S. 82. A storm chaser from Mississippi State University is in the vicinity and checking on the storm.

Alabama counties in the new Tornado Watch:
ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COLBERT CULLMAN DEKALB
FAYETTE FRANKLIN JACKSON
LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LIMESTONE MADISON MARION
MARSHALL MORGAN PICKENS
TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON

A new watch will be issued soon that will cover much of Northern Alabama.

Indications are that it will be a Tornado Watch.

Thunderstorm line filling in somewhat. Explosive development over North Louisiana.

First Tornado Warning with this event.

It is for Panola County in NW Mississippi. Several Severe Thunderstorm Warnings also in effect for NW Mississippi. Line of thunderstorms firing across that area.

Still nothing going on in Alabama but it was not expected to be going on this early in the night. Still looks like an after midnight event for all of Central Alabama. NW Alabama could be under the gun earlier.

The SPC has backed off on the "moderate risk" area. It is now a "slight risk" for the entire area.

Tornado Watch continues till 11 tonight all the way from NE Texas to the Alabama border. Includes such cities as Texarkana, El Dorado, Shreveport, Monroe, Greenville, Greenwood, Tupelo, Columbus, Starkville.

Two lines of thunderstorms in progress at 6 pm. The leading line extends from East Central Arkansas, near the NW edge of Mississippi, SW to east of Shreveport.

The second shorter line is from SW Arkansas into NE Texas.

Not much lightning in these storms yet as they are just getting cranked up. They will be moving east.

No showers at all in Alabama at 6 pm, as the atmosphere remains capped.

Headed to the big bed for a power nap so I can stay awake all night.

Still not a single shower in Alabama at 5 pm--not a drip.

In the Tornado Watch that extends from NE Texas to the Alabama border, still no thunderstrorms within the box. However, a line of mostly light showers has developed across NW Louisiana. This could be the beginning.

Some of the ingredients in the pie to make severe weather not as impressive as earlier. Still looks dangerous for North and NW Alabama...less so for the eastern and southern counties.

500 millibar chart looks a bit wimpish.

LLJ (Low Level Jet) not projected to be as strong as earlier models.

But way too early to lessen the watch. Will be interesting to see the 00Z (7 pm CDT) models.

Atmosphere has been pretty well capped much of the day...warm layer aloft. Forcing could change that.

Bottom line...let's all watch and wait.

A new long Tornado Watch has been issued that goes all the way from the NE corner of Texas eastward to the Alabama border. The watch, which is in effect until 11 pm, CDT, covers:

Several counties in Extreme NE Texas
Extreme Northern Louisiana
Southern Arkansas
North Mississippi (nearly the north half)

It is interesting that not a single thunderstorm was in progress in the whole watch area at 4 PM. In fact, only a few light showers near Shreveport and in NE Texas. But that will change for sure.

Also, not a single shower in Alabama at 4 pm

Still on track for most of the rough stuff in Alabama to be very late tonight into Saturday morning.

Little or no sleep for the weather people for a long time...

Life goes on...sleep or no sleep.

The Friday afternoon web video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Still a rather complex forecast, but the general idea remains the same for the next 24 hours.

Severe thunderstorms with the possibility of tornadoes should form to the west over the next few hours, in the general area between Shreveport and Tupelo. A few rotating storms could enter northwest Alabama late tonight, and SPC has a moderate risk out for that part of Alabama generally north of a line from Cullman to Jasper and to Reform. The moderate risk also includes parts of north Mississippi, north Louisiana, and southeast Arkansas.

***New tornado watch being issued now for much of north and central Mississippi through 11:00 p.m.**

The storms to the west should evolve into a long squall line after midnight, which will move through Alabama during the pre-dawn hours tomorrow. The main threat from the line will be damaging straight line winds.

The 12Z model set is not quite as impressive with the various severe weather parameters; with limited instability and wind fields that are not as strong. However, there is no doubt we have the potential for a fairly nasty squall line between 2:00 and 9:00 a.m.

The sky should become partly sunny tomorrow afternoon, and Sunday will be rain-free.

Way behind the power curve here this afternoon... will turn the blogging over to J.B. Elliott and the rest of the gang for a while...

Enjoyed the kids at Chalkville Elementary today... a great Friday afternoon crowd!

The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of northwest Alabama under a *Moderate Risk* of severe weather for tonight. That includes cities like Muscle Shoals, Hamilton, Fayette, Jasper, Cullman, and Vernon.

Some of the latest model guidance suggests that there could be some isolated supercell thunderstorms in the northwestern corner of state late this evening and into the wee hours of Saturday morning. We still think, however, that the storms form into a squall line after 1:00 AM, and then they move through the rest of the state through the early morning hours.

In just the last few moments, a brand-new severe thunderstorm watch was issued for northern Mississippi, and that's where our eyes will be trained for the next few hours as we see exactly what develops!

The Friday morning web video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

This is becoming a difficult forecast with some model differences showing up.

SPC maintains a moderate risk of severe storms later today across southeast Arkansas, north Mississippi, southwest Tennessee, and the northwest corner of Alabama. A slight risk surrounds the moderate risk and covers much of Alabama.

Here are some points to consider:

*Models are weaker with the 500 mb short wave.

*Models have moved the surface low more to the south in the latest runs. A blend of model output puts the surface low closer to Nashville during the pre-dawn hours.

*NAM wants to slow down the overall system a bit.

With the surface low position closer to us, that might mean some rotating storms over northwest Alabama late tonight. We still believe the storms will merge into a long squall line, passing through the state sometime during the pre-dawn hours tomorrow. Very strong wind fields mean the possibility of damaging winds along the line.

With some respect for the slower NAM model, we will now project the greatest risk of severe weather between 2:00 and 9:00 a.m. The overall threat will come from about midnight to noon. The model differences have made for a lower confidence on the specific timing.

It is interesting to note the NAM runs the surface dewpoint up to 69 at midday tomorrow with a surface based CAPE of over 3000! But, the dynamics will be mostly gone by then. The GFS has a drier airmass in place by then, however.

If the NAM is correct, there could be a few showers or storms into early tomorrow afternoon over east Alabama. For now we still think the rain will be over for the race tomorrow at the Talladega Superspeedway.

Sunday will be a beautiful day with ample sunshine and afternoon temperatures in the 70s.

Will be very interested to watch the 12Z models come in a little later this morning. I will be speaking at Chalkville Elementary today and back in the office after that for the afternoon update...