Time to talk summer weather forecasting in Alabama. Lets look at some important points:

*There will be a chance of afternoon showers or storms on about 9 out of 10 days from now through the end of August.

*The storms will be widely scattered, and at 7:00 in the morning it is almost impossible to tell you when and where it will rain during the afternoon. This drives us crazy, and some of you too.

*The words “hot, hazy, and humid” will be used more than any other in summer weather forecasts in Alabama.

*Day to day weather changes are usually very subtle, and many times not noticeable.

*About the only weather feature that can bring a widespread, soaking, “all day” kind of rain is a tropical storm or hurricane.

*We hate to use “probability of precipitation”, especially this time of the year. Nobody understands…

See this post for more on that subject:

http://www.jamesspann.com/bmachine/post/wxtalk/4511/

Yesterday was a great example of a typical summer day in Alabama. Highs were in the low 90s, there was a decent amount of hazy sunshine, and a handful of communities saw rain during the afternoon. Some spots dealt with strong storms with gusty winds and some hail, but a large percentage of the territory was dry and hot.

Here are some of the descriptive words we use when it comes to afternoon storms, in increasing order of expected coverage: isolated, widely scattered, scattered, and numerous. Isolated suggests most spots will be dry, while numerous suggests most places will get wet.

The placement and timing of showers and storms on a summer day all depends on small scale features, like: the strength of the cap (a warm layer of air aloft), any low level convergence from mesoscale boundaries, enhanced moisture convergence, and pockets of colder air aloft. This stuff is not always easy to identify.

It is my hope that the next generation of meteorologists will be able to tell you when and where it will rain on a summer afternoon several hours BEFORE the showers form. No way it happens on my watch. But, we will sure keep trying. If you read this blog, you are ahead of the curve. On summer days you have to go beyond the little pictures we show on the seven day graphic and read these discussions. You can find great clues about your actual chance of getting wet on a summer day!

There were still a few strong storms over West Alabama early this evening. One was near Vance in East Tuscaloosa County and another west of Marion in Perry County.

Moving slowly toward the northwest.

Most of the strongest thunderstorms were over in East Mississippi.

Damage in Alabama today was minor. Late this afternoon, shopping carts were blown into some automobiles at a Demopolis shopping center and small signs torn down.

Earlier, around 1:35 pm, hail the size of quarters damaged several automobiles in the parking lot of Talladega Walmart. About 10 trees were uprooted in the city.

Latest Severe Thunderstorm Warning is for Marengo County in West Alabama. Severe thunderstorm was 7 miles southeast of Linden near the Octagon community. Moving southeast slowly at only 5 mph. May have quarter size hail and gusts to 60 mph.

Other stong storms:

* Along the Tuscaloosa-Bibb County line along U.S. 82 about midway between Centreville and Tuscaloosa
* Marion County around Hamilton
* Far Southwest Alabama
* Along Marshall-Dekalb County line in northeast Alabama

3340 Skycam from Hamilton shows considerable rain and temperature drom to 69

Temperature in Demopolis a relatively cool 75 from earlier thunderstorms

Widely spaced but locally strong storms continue mainly over West Alabama at this houir. Some of the strongest:

* South Marion County
* Northwest Fayette County
* East Lamar County
* East St. Clair County
* Near Demopolis in North Marengo County

Movement is toward the northwest.

At 1:35 this afternoon, the Talladega County EMA reported 10 trees uprooted within the city of Talladega. The same storm produced quarter-size hail which damaged several cars in the Walmart parking lot.

In Far Southwest Alabama, the National Weather Service, Mobile, has issued a Flash Flood Warning for Baldwin County due to a stationary thunderstorm about 15 miles southeast of Mobile.

Here is where some of the main ones were at 3:15 pm:

* North St. Clair County
* South Fayette County
* Northeast Hale County
* South Greene County
* Jackson County

The NWS, Huntsville issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for jackson County in Extreme Northeast Alabama until 3:30.

A thunderstorms is just now breaking loose over Northeast Trussville with severe lighting.

The Monday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

I realize most folks today are on the lake, at the beach, or in the backyard grilling up something good. But, I am glad you are here if you happen to be checking weather on the ole computer.

RIGHT NOW: Isolated storms have fired in the hot airmass over Alabama. Tuscaloosa has reached 93, while Birmingham is at 91 this hour. Hot air at the surface means the low lebel air is buoyant, and that rising air has penetrated the capping inversion, allowing for what you see on radar.

A few of the storms this afternoon or early tonight might require a severe thunderstorm warning, but once again most neighborhoods will stay dry. Birmingham has gone 11 consecutive days with no measurable rain; we sure could use a good shower.

TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: The upper air high remains on top of us, so look for highs in the 90 to 93 degree range, lots of hazy sun, and only isolated afternoon storms.

LATE WEEK FRONT: The GFS continues to advertise a surface front (we don't like to call them cold fronts in summer slowly moving through here on Friday, in response to an upper air trough forming over the eastern U.S. This could mean an increase in the number of scattered afternoon storms on Thursday and Friday. The best coverage of the storms could come on Friday as the actual front moves through.

While cold fronts rarely pass through here in summer, early June is the best time for one to slip by. So, we will continue to bite on the GFS solution and forecast less humid conditions by Saturday and Sunday. Any showers over the coming weekend will be confined to the southern half of the state. Highs should be in the mid to upper 80s over the weekend.

We will have to watch the old front; if it drifts into the northern Gulf of Mexico that can sometimes lead to tropical depression formation this time of the year. I am not saying that will happen, but it is surely possible.

We will get back to the regular schedule tomorrow, with the morning video posted by 7:00 a.m. I will be working tomorrow, but then taking a few days off Wednesday through Friday. Brian Peters will be handling the web map discussion videos and podcasts while I am gone; John Oldshue, Bill Murray, and J.B. Elliott will pitch in to help with TV and radio work....

Not many thunderstorms in progress this afternoon, but the few have formed are lazy as can be when it comes to moving.

Just got a call from Bill Murray who is visiting Vulcan. He reports considerable lightning off to the SW from a thunderstorm that was approaching the Birmingham area.

Thunderstorms also north of Tuscaloosa dumping locally heavy rain.

And over in East-Central Alabama, a thunderstorm developed along the Clay County-Talladega County line an hour or so ago. This storm has moved ever so slowly toward the north and is now near Talladega. Some parts of Talladega County, especially south of the city of Talladega, have probably received more than one inch of rain.

However, you could lump all of the storms in progress together and they would cover only a small percentage of Central Alabama.

With literally thousands of people involved in outdoor activities today on the rivers and lakes, it is more important than ever to be especially careful (and frightened) by lightning.

It formed quickly early this afternoon directly over the Clay County-Talladega County line in East Central Alabama...some 10 miles east of Winterboro. This is in the Talladega National Forest.

It is a small storm but producing heavy rain. It is not moving much.

Another even smaller one has formed just NE of Tuscaloosa and in Hale County between Greensboro and Marion.

Others will be forming this afternoon.

Happy Memorial Day!

We are working a holiday schedule today; there will be one map discussion video, and that will be posted this afternoon. No real change in the weather through Wednesday; hot, humid, and only isolated storms. See Bill Murray's package here:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/7day.html

I will have a discussion and video by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!