The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the server at:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Seems rather hot out there today even though the airport had only reached 92. My thermometer topped out around 96 this afternoon and it sure felt like it to me. I'm ready to head back to Chicago where temperatures were around 80 for much of my stay over last weekend.

The trough over the eastern third of the country is going to dampen out as does the ridge over the western half of the country. The net result is a rather zonal pattern with the main storm track along the northern tier of the US.

The latest GFS model run, the 12Z run, now hints at the possibility of a front reaching the northern portion of Alabama around mid-week next week. I'm somewhat dubious of that since fronts really have a hard time of making their way very far south during the summer. One factor which might favor the front getting into Alabama is the history of troughs over the eastern half of the country for the last couple of months. If the trough should sharpen up enough, then we could see the front stall out in North Alabama giving us a focus for some increase in shower chances. But that is at least four or five days out, so we'll just watch to see if the GFS keeps that trend.

In the long term, ridging is expected to be with us out through 300 hours so we can only hope for a scattered shower over our yard.

Tropics are still quiet. An area of disturbed weather over the Lesser Antilles continues to bring wet weather to that area. Upper level wind is not favorable for any development in the near term. An area of cloudiness has shown up this afternoon in the southwest Gulf of Mexico, but pressures are rather high in that area, so no signs for any development at this time.

I'll be back tomorrow morning with another web video map discussion. I'll try to have it posted no later than 8 am. Hope you have a graet evening. Stay cool.

-Brian-

The Thursday morning map discussion video is on the server at:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Back in the saddle after a wonderful visit with my daughter in Chicago. I sure could get used to playing the tourist especially if the weather remained as good as it did for the five days of my stay. Oh, well, as the old saying goes, all good things must come to an end, so here I am back at it. I hope to have a couple of images from my trip this afternoon.

Weather is expected to remain dry for the next several days as the pattern changes to something much more typical for this time of year. Today we are still enjoying the effects of a northwesterly flow pattern thanks to the trough over the eastern third of the Nation. That trough along with the ridge over the western US will be flattening as we become strongly influenced by the Bermuda High.

While the main storm track will be well north of Alabama - along the US-Canada border - moisture will gradually increase so that by Sunday and into the July 4th week we'll see scattered hit-or-miss showers and thundershowers.

Unfortunately as the pattern changes, we'll see temperatures creep back up into the lower and mid 90s.

Tropics remain relatively quiet. A couple of cloudy areas are being watched, however, upper wind flow is not conducive for any development at this time.

Back this afternoon with another web video map discussion. Look for it between 4 and 5 pm.

-Brian-

Wow...some very interesting material already on the blog this morning. Be sure and scroll down to see:

* Some pix from Western North Carolina, around Asheville, where the James Spann family is on vacation this week for some well deserved R+R. The pix are great, but, clearly, my favorite is the second one in the sequence.

* Drew McCombs installment no. 12 of his recent Great Plains tornado chase.

* Bill Murray has another in his series about Hurricane Audrey

* Be sure and read a post in the comment section of the Audrey story from a gentleman named Tim. It is a first person account from New Orleans and very interesting.

Now back to my rambles:

ANOTHER COOL ALABAMA MORNING
Out in the cool just before sunrise, I could not help wishing I was driving up the beautiful Paint Rock Valley which runs along the Paint Rock RiveR in Extreme North Alabama...or driving up the switchbacks to Mt. Cheaha State Park headed for the breakfast buffet. Here we go with some more delightful low temperatures in Alabama this morning:

54 at Cullman Airport (Vinemont)
56 in Desoto State Park
57 in Pinson
58 in Crossville
59 in Decatur, Fort payne, Anniston
60 in Muscle Shoals, Tuscaloosa
61 at Huntsville, Troy, Concord-Hueytown
62 at Birmingham Airport and Shelby County Airport (NWS)
63 in Montgomery
64 in Evergreen
67 in Selma
69 in Mobile

GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK
A chilly 43 this morning atop Mt. Leconte. This would mean a light coat for most folks but not for me. It was 57 at the park headquarters in Gatlinburg.

JUMPING AHEAD TO INDEPENDENCE DAY
Highs across Central Alabama in the 90-94 range with widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms. This means most communities should remain dry. Latest models show moisture spreading into South Alabama from the SE and ESE. Therefore, the better chance of rain will be over about the south-third of the state.

THE NORTHEAST CRITICAL FLOODING
We could almost write a book about that but we will mention just one stat that shows how critical it is. In Pennsylvania, a state ofemergency has been declared in 46 of their 67 counties.

WILD FIRES
Great to hear that the Oak Creek Canyon fire in Arizona is finally fully contained. It was --- years ago this month that we were spending our honeymoon in the lower part of Oak Creek Canyon south of Sedona.

What a nice getaway this week... I am spending some time in the mountains of North Carolina (the far western part of the state). Beautiful weather, great scenery. We are staying at the Inn at Biltmore; on the grounds of the Biltmore Estate, near Asheville.

See some photos below. I will return here on Monday July 3!

Day 12 . . .

We took our time getting out of Wichita the morning of day 12 because everyone (including the trip's leaders) had given up on chasing. We didn't leave the hotel till around 11, and we stopped at IHOP on the way out for a nice, big lunch/breakfast. We had plans to head to Elk City, Oklahoma, which was not a very long drive compared to some of the other drives we had had during the trip. The group was excited about getting to this particular stop because of the famous Holidome at the Holiday Inn there. The Holidome had an indoor pool, hot tub, and a restaurant, but the main attraction was the putt-putt golf course.

So, we got done with IHOP and hit the road with dreams of a nice leisurely afternoon at the Elk City Holidome. We had been traveling for a couple of hours when we stopped at a gas station somewhere in rural Oklahoma. The stop was very similar to the all the many gas station stops we had made before. Everyone used the restroom, most bought drinks, and everyone stretched their legs. One thing was different though. We noticed a little storm trying to build near us. We didn't think much of it because the setup was not supposed to be great for good storms. Plus we had no plans of chasing at all. I decided to name the storm "Last Chance."

We got back on the road and continued to head south towards the interstate where we would then head west towards Elk City. As we drove, we all noticed that "Last Chance" was beginning to grow a little bit and was beginning to display some structure. We kept going, though, and even stopped for a second to help a lady change her tire (aren't we great. "Last Chance" was beginning to gain some friends as several other storms were beginning to form in the area.

As we got on the interstate, "Last Chance" was really beginning to look good, and we had a great view of it. Soon, it had formed into a classic anvil structure with an impressive overshooting top. We had gotten too far away from it though, and we had to admire it from afar. Some of the other storms to our west were within range, though, and so we had a decision to make as we approached Elk City: do we forget about the storms and head to the Holidome or do we pass Elk City and give it one more shot?

More next time . . .

Drew McCombs
ABC 33/40 Weather Intern
abc3340wx2@gmail.com