The 2002 North Atlantic Hurricane Season started off slow, prompting researchers like Dr. Bill Gray to downgrade his forecasts for the season.

September is usually the most active month, but no one expected what happened in September 2002.

As September rolled around, the counts suddenly exploded.

A record 8 named tropical cyclones formed in the Atlantic basis during the month. This is far greater than the average 3 to 4 that usually occur and nearly equal to the long term average for an entire season. It is one better than the previous record of 7 observed in September 1998.

After the slow start, things exploded in the month of September. As the month drew to a close, a record eight named tropical cyclones had occurred in the month, including Edouard. Faye, Gustav, Hanna, Isidore, Josephine, Kyle and Lili.

The reasons for the burst of activity are hard to pinpoint, but one reason is that systems formed in multiple reasons. Another reason is that 2002 was the first year that the National Hurricane Center started naming subtropical storms.

The Friday afternoon map discussion video is on the web, and available on iTunes:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

Get ready for the coolest night so far this season; most communities will drop into the mid 40s by daybreak tomorrow, but the colder valleys have a chance of reaching the upper 30s. The sky will be completely clear and the wind will be light, a perfect night for radiational cooling.

WARMER DAYS AHEAD: A warming trend begins over the weekend; we go into the upper 70s tomorrow, and low 80s are likely by Sunday afternoon. The tail end of an upper air short wave will move over North Alabama Sunday, so there will be some scattered clouds, but for the moment the chance of a shower looks pretty small. We might have to include some risk of isolated showers, but lets take a look at the 00Z model runs before we change anything.

NEXT WEEK: Warm and dry weather will be the story next week as an upper air ridge builds across Alabama and the Deep South. Afternoon temperatures will rise well into the 80s, and a few spots might even touch the 90 degree mark. At this point we see no significant chance of rain through the week.

LONG RANGE: The 12Z GFS develops a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico in the October 11-12 time frame, and then moves it east across the Florida peninsula and into the Atlantic. Needless to say, this is complete voodoo at this point, but it is possible considering the pattern. Then, the GFS continues to develop a major upper trough over the eastern half of the nation by October 15 with the coldest air so far this season following a cold frontal passage. That might bring the first widespread frost to North Alabama in the October 16-19 time frame if the model is correct.

TROPICS: Isaac remains far from land, and the rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet for the moment.

I hope you enjoy the weekend... I will be at Cheaha State Park serving as a judge for the annual chili cook-off; it is part of the annual Arts and Crafts Festival. Hope you can join us! I will have the next map discussion video on the web by early Monday morning at 7:00... Brian Peters will have you covered over the weekend....

John Oldshue checks in from Alaska...

We did have a low temperature in North Alabama this morning that was under 40! We think it is the first time this season. Here is a list of morning lows--updated at 10:30 am CDT:

37 in Belle Mina
40 in Valley Head, Cottondale and Black Creek
41 at Russellville Airport
42 in Pinson, Crossville, DeSoto State Park
43 at Hanceville, Collinsville, Fort Payne Airport and Scottsboro
44 at Huntsville, Courtland, Vinemont*
45 at Anniston Tuscaloosa, Decatur, Albertville, Meridianville, Cullman Airport, Alabaster(Navjo Pines)
46 in Evergreen, Muscle Shoals, Jemison
47 at Birmingham and Alabaster (Highlands section)
48 in Auburn, Troy and at the Shelby County Airport (NWS Office)
49 atop Mt. Cheaha (33/40 SkyCam
52 in Selma
54 in Mobile

* 33/40 Skywatcher, Mike Wilhelm reports the 44.4 degree low in Vinemont (North Cullman County) this morning was the coolest so far this season.

The Friday morning map discussion video is on the web, and also available on iTunes:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

What a great morning... most reporting stations around the northern half of the state are somewhere between 45 and 50 degrees as I wriite this. Today will feature maximum sunshine, a cool breeze, and temperatures about 10 degrees below normal for late September; most places will see a high in the low 70s.

Tomorrow morning will be the coolest with mid 40s likely; the cooler valleys have a shot at the 38 to 42 degree range. But, after tomorrow, we will flip into a warm pattern to begin the month of October.

THE WEEKEND: Lots of sunshine both Saturday and Sunday; we will reach the upper 70s on Saturday, and low 80s Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: An upper air ridge builds across the Deep South next week, and that will provide warm afternoon temperatures all week, mostly in the mid 80s. Nights and early mornings will remain fairly comfortable, however, with lows in the 55 to 62 degree range most mornings. The upper ridge also means a dry week. At this point we do not see any significant chance of rain for the next seven days.

LONG RANGE: The GFS brings back the eastern U.S. trough at mid-month; the 00Z run hints at a strong cold front with rain and storms around October 14-15, followed by much cooler air.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Isaac will stay out to sea, and the other features scattered across the Atlantic basin look really weak and disorganized at this time.

Our midday crew will be live down at the Southern Women's Show at the BJCC today from 11:00 until 12:00 (that is the new time for our midday newscast); I will be coming in to back up Jason Simpson, hanging out in the weather office. So, I will have the afternoon map discussion easily on time today by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy your Friday!