The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the server at:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Today is an excellent example of how the forecast can go belly up if the clouds don't clear. Temperatures across the state were in the 50s with some 60s across southern Alabama. The exception, however, was an area from Muscle Shoals to Cullman to Gadsden across north central and northeast Alabama where clouds hung in through much of the afternoon keeping temperatures in the lower 40s. I've seen cold fronts that did not have the thermal contrast between the clear areas and the cloudy areas. In fact, Fort Payne was at 39 around 3 pm under solid overcast for the coldest spot in the state while Birmingham was at 53 in the bright sunshine.

A nice warm-up is forecast for tomorrow for the whole state as we see afternoon highs climb into the 60s for much of the state - upper 50s northern sections.

Moisture and some clouds return Friday evening with a chance of showers Friday night and early Saturday. QPF forecasts suggest rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch with somewhat limited moisture. And temperatures are not expected to change much with the system early Saturday.

By Monday as the next system approaches we could see the mercury threaten th 70-degree mark along with the possibility of severe weather. Models remain consistent in bringing a reasonably strong system through Alabama on Monday and Mississippi and Alabama are in the 4-to-8 day outlook for severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center. Of course, this is not a sure bet, but something to keep an eye on.

The GFS is introducing a change to a higher amplitude pattern with this model run, so the forecast could turn much colder around January 5th instead of the 10th as it was suggesting this morning. My confidence in this change is not very high at the moment but we'll watch the trends.

Wednesday another system moves through the state but look mighty dry but with much colder air following. We'll see.

And in the long range - out 312 hours - the pattern becomes very confusing with one trough almost oriented east-to-west, so I won't even try to get much out of that!! Voodoo land as James describes it.

Have a great day. Friday morning discussion should be available around 8.

-Brian-

The Thursday morning map discussion video is on the server at:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

The map discussion video starts today with a brief recap of some of the events from yesterday including several pictures sent to me by Brett Adair. Mr. Adair experienced one of the risks of going after storms when he encountered golf ball size hail cracking the windshield of his vehicle. But he got a couple of nice shots, one of an excellent updraft of an isolated storm and a nice photo of hail. Thanks Brett.

Nice day on tap today but cool as we see the upper level trough shift east of us taking the clouds with it. I expect to see highs in the lower 50s. Morning lows stayed up a bit with the cloud cover as most locations were in the lower 40s - some spots probably dropped into the upper 30s.

The rapid progression of weather systems continues with the GFS forecasting our next cold front just a tad faster - clouds should increase in the day Friday with rain chances Friday night and early Saturday. Skies should clear fairly quickly on Saturday as that system zips by.

The big news for us is another strong system on Monday that could bring another round of severe weather. The potential seems to be there with a strong upper level system, good moisture return, reasonably good looking jet dynamics, and overall good instability. Remember, we are talking four days out, and like the system we had yesterday, everything might not come together in the precise fashion needed, but it's nice to be able to watch it evolve as the event gets closer. SPC's 4-to-8 day severe thunderstorm outlook suggests conditions favorable for an organized severe weather event. Perhaps 2006 will begin with a real bang!

The pattern across the southern US is forecast to remain progressive with yet another cold front/weather system in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame.

And in the longer range, the progressive nature of these systems continues but the amplitude of the troughs and ridges gets larger suggesting a change to colder conditions. But that's really a long way out there.

The next map discussion video should be on the server around 4 pm. Have a great day.

-Brian-