PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
554 PM CST MON APR 3 2006

...PRELIMINARY MID SOUTH STORM DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS FROM THE MAJOR
TORNADO OUTBREAK OF APRIL 2 2006...

A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE MID SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. WARM MOIST AND HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THIS
COLD FRONT RESULTED IN THUNDERSTORMS WHICH RAPIDLY BECAME SEVERE
AND PRODUCED TORNADOES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE PERSONNEL IN MEMPHIS HAVE BEGUN STORM DAMAGE
ASSESSMENTS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH ADDITIONAL DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS
TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF THE DYER COUNTY TORNADO:

A STORM DAMAGE ASSESSMENT TEAM SURVEYED THE DAMAGE ACROSS DYER
COUNTY ON MONDAY. THIS TORNADO WAS A CONTINUATION FROM THE TORNADIC
THUNDERSTORM IN CARUTHERSVILLE MISSOURI AND TRAVELED FOR 18 MILES
BEFORE DISSIPATING IN NEWBERN TENNESSEE (DYER COUNTY). PRELIMINARY
F-SCALE ASSESSMENT RATES THIS TORNADO AT A STRONG F3 TORNADO WITH
ESTIMATED WINDS AROUND 200 MPH. NUMEROUS HOMES WERE DESTROYED WITH
ADDITIONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE NOTED. THERE WERE 15 FATALITIES WITH THIS
STORM AND ONE INDIVIDUAL STILL NOT ACCOUNTED FOR.

PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF THE GIBSON COUNTY TORNADO:

AFTER THIS TORNADO DISSIPATED...ANOTHER TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN GIBSON
COUNTY TENNESSEE JUST EAST OF YORKVILLE AND MOVED THROUGH DYER AND
THEN THROUGH BRADFORD. TORNADIC DAMAGE WAS RATED A F1 ON THE FUJITA
SCALE WITH UP TO F3 DAMAGE IN BRADFORD...ESPECIALLY ON TAYLOR ROAD
JUST EAST OF HIGHWAY 45. THE STORM CONTINUED EAST THROUGH WEAKLEY
AND CARROLL COUNTIES IN TENNESSEE WHICH WILL HAVE A STORM DAMAGE
ASSESSMENT CONDUCTED ON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND SUPERCELL
UNRELATED TO THE DYER COUNTY SUPERCELL. THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OBION COUNTY LINE AND JUST NORTH OF WEATHERFORD. THIS
TORNADO THEN MOVED SOUTHEAST TRACKING APPROXIMATELY 10 MILES AND
DISSIPATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF CHINA GROVE ROAD AND HIGHWAY
105. PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENTS RATE THIS TORNADO AS AN F3 ON THE
FUJITA SCALE WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 200 MPH AND A WIDTH OF UP TO
ONE HALF MILE. SEVERAL HOMES WERE DESTROYED WITH MANY AUTOMOBILES
TOSSED AND THROWN INTO FIELDS. EIGHT FATALITIES WERE REPORTED IN
BRADFORD WITH APPROXIMATELY 50 INJURIES.

PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF HAYWOOD COUNTY TORNADO:

ANOTHER TEAM SURVEYED DAMAGE FROM A TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM IN
BROWNSVILLE TENNESSEE. THIS TORNADO WAS ESTIMATED TO BE AN F2 ON THE
FUJITA SCALE WITH A WIDTH OF 30 YARDS AND LENGTH OF THREE QUARTERS
OF A MILE.


FUJITA TORNADIC DAMAGE SCALE

F0.....60-73 MPH...LIGHT DAMAGE
F1....73-112 MPH...MODERATE DAMAGE
F2...113-157 MPH...CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE
F3...158-206 MPH...SEVERE DAMAGE
F4...207-260 MPH...DEVASTATING DAMAGE
F5...261-318 MPH...INCREDIBLE DAMAGE
$$
CJC/RJO/DNV/JEB/JFB

From one of our readers in Hueytown... nickel to dime sized hail in a freezer bag (collected during the early morning storm today):

The Monday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Sorry for the lack of posts here today; I spoke to the kids at Bluff Park Elementary School (watch for them on the KIDCAM on ABC 33/40 News today at 5:00... then it was on to J.B. Elliott's place helping him to get back online. We are all back in operation now.... I wrote the seven day forecast package for the web for J.B. today.

I have not seen final storm surveys from the Dyer/Gibson County Tennessee tornado... will be interesting to see how that is rated. I understand a special "go team" from the NWS has to come into an area if a tornado is thought to be an F4 or F5... it is not done by local offices. Might be tomorow before we get the verdict. Very sad seeing all of the images on the news today from the hardest hit areas... we have seem images like that so often here in Alabama.

COOLER AIR: Beautiful weather for Alabama continues through mid-week, with sunny mild days and clear but chilly nights. Lows will mostly be in the low 40s, but some of the colder spots might reach the upper 30s tomorrow and Wednesday morning. Highs will be close to 70.

NEXT RAIN EVENT: The 12Z run of the GFS is a little faster with the system at the end of the week. For now, we are highlighting showers and storms late Friday and Friday night. The 12Z GFS suggests it might be an event during the day Friday. Also, the 12Z GFS shows a little better dynamic forcing down here... so some strong to severe storms might be possible if that happens.

The system that will bring us a chance of showers and storms on Friday will bring a threat of more severe weather to the nation's mid-section on Thursday and Thursday night. Could be a significant outbreak.

LONG RANGE: The GFS continues to suggest the main "severe weather alley" through the middle of the month will be from the southern plains to the Great Lakes.... this means we will catch only the trailing fronts, and the best chance of the "red letter day" type outbreaks will stay north and west of here. We will be watching for signs of a pattern change.

AM WONDERING: Which national media outlet will be the first to report "global warming" was responsible for yesterday's tornado outbreak? Surely it will happen sooner than later.

The next map discussion video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow....

Reports from various media sources now indicated that at least 30 people have died in Illinois, Arkansas, Missouri and Tennessee from the big tornado outbreak yesterday and last night. One of those who died in Dyer County, TN was an 11 month old infant.

Hardest hit areas:
Newbern, TN
Rutherford, TN
Caruthersville, MO
Circle City, MO
Fairview Heights, IL
Hopkinsville, KY

Here is an image I captured last night of the tornadic storm that moved through Dyer and Gibson counties, Tennessee last night:

This was when the tornado was moving through Rutherford.

Storm surveys will be ongoing today... I will report findings as they come in...

The Monday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

RED LETTER DAY: What a severe weather outbreak yesterday and last night over Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Indiana. SPC web site has a total of 63 tornadoes, 321 wind reports, 314 hail reports, for a total of 698 severe weather reports. Various news reports suggest the death toll is 18; 16 in Tennessee and two in Missouri. Many injuries in parts of northeast Arkansas. I am afraid those numbers could go higher with the first light of day and additional information.

AROUND HERE: I will be the first to admit I was really surprised to see storms intensify during the pre-dawn hours around here this morning. I expected a few showers early this morning, not these kind of storms (WRONG. The stronger storms produced some hail in scattered spots.

SPC issued a tornado watch early this morning, but there have been no reports of tornadoes in our state, and I don't expect any this morning in our state. The NWS is in the process of cancelling the tornado watch as I write this. I don't think a tornado watch was needed here, but after the kind of night SPC had last night, I don't blame them for having a quick trigger finger. At my place in northern Shelby County, my rain total from a passing pre-dawn storm was 0.31".

HERE COMES THE SUN: Drier and cooler air rolls into the state today as the morning storms end. All of the rain should be gone by mid-morning, and the afternoon should feature lots of sunshine with highs in the mid 70s, about ten degrees cooler than yesterday. We do note Birmingham set a new record high yesterday with a balmy 85 degrees.

Pleasant weather is our story through mid-week with sunny mild days and clear cool nights.

NEXT STORM: Another major storm will roll out of the Rockies later in the week, setting up a severe weather threat for the nation's mid-section on Wednesday and Thursday. This system, like the one over the weekend, heads to the Great Lakes, and we catch the trailing front. A band of showers and storms will move through here Friday night, and once again a major severe weather problem isn't very likely with weakening wind fields, and the main dynamic support well to the north.

WEEKEND PEEK: Any showers should end early Saturday, and the weekend ahead looks nice with ample sunshine and temperatures near normal for early April.

Will be headed to Bluff Park Elementary this morning... will be back in the office for the afternoon map discussion video, which will be posted by 3:30. Thanks to J.B. Elliott for the pre-dawn blog updates!

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CLAY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA
NORTHEASTERN COOSA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA
NORTHWESTERN TALLAPOOSA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA

* UNTIL 730 AM CDT

* AT 648 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF ASHLAND TO 11 MILES NORTH OF GOODWATER TO 11 MILES WEST OF GOODWATER...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LINEVILLE AND NEW SITE

Most of the thunderstorms have moved east of the Gadsden-Birmingham-Tuscaloosa line.

NWS Birmingham, as James mentioned, has cancelled the tornado watch.

Strong storms still over Chilton County.

NWS issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Central Chilton County until 7:15. The storm was near Maplesville, or about 17 miles west of Clanton.

Moving east very rapidly at 55 mph.

This will likely be my last update. Still working crippled with only a slow dialup connection on our second computer. My main operating syatem has been dead in the water since late Saturday.

I am unable to send or receive email on both computers. If you have emailed me in the last few days, please be patient. Will acknowledge as soon as I am back up and running.

Hope to change internet providers soon...

Thanks in advance to James Spann for doing the Monday afternoon edition of the weather fax, 7 day discussion and E-Forecast.

Also scan down to see his morning discussion and video update...

At 6 am, a line of thunderstorms extended from east of Tuscaloosa, across North Bibb County, the Birmingham area, North Shelby and Talladega County.

Moving east rapidly.

Overall, diminishing in intensity.

Most of the storms are over for places like Fayette, Winston, Cullman, Walker and West Tuscaloosa County.

Most of the thunderstorms should be out of the Greater Birmingham area for at least the last half of the morning rush hour.

TRAGIC DAY AND NIGHT SUNDAY
Early reports indicate that as many as 19 people were killed in Sunday's severe weather outbreak. Our neighbors to the north were hardest hit when 11 persons were killed in Dyer County in West Tennessee.

Look for the morning discussion from James Spann here shortly.

It is a Severe Thunderstorm Warning until 6 am, CDT, for...

Southeast Jefferson County
North Shelby County

Line of possibly severe thunderstorms extended from Homewood to Bessemer moving east very rapidly at 50 mph.

May contain nickle size hail.

Includes places like Homewood, Vestavia, Mountain Brook and down into North Shelby.

Tornado Watch continues in effect for the area until 7.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for South Central Walker County and Centeral Jefferson County until 5:30 am.

Line of strong to severe storms approaching from the west.

May contain hail the size of quarters.

Tornado Watch continues till 7 am.

Scann down for much more info.

James Spann will have a complete discussion and video update here by around 6.