May is here, which means hurricane season is just around the corner. The season “officially” runs from June 1 through the November 30, but early systems have formed in May before. The core of the season is August, September, and early October, when sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic basin peak.

Dr. William Gray at Colorado State University, who likes to forecast tropical activity (and has been doing it for 22 years), expects 13 named tropical storms in 2005, of which seven become hurricanes. Of those seven, three are forecast to be intense hurricanes. He notes he might raise these numbers up a tad if he can be sure El Nino conditions will not develop. His probabilities of at least one major hurricane landfall look like this: The entire U.S. coastline: 73%; the U.S. east coast including the Florida peninsula: 53%; the Gulf coast from Brownsville, Texas to the Florida panhandle: 41%.

We received a note from the National Hurricane Center that they will not be changing the format of their track graphics this season. There was some concern that the public was focusing too much on the center line of the forecast tracks, and not looking at the “margin of error” fans coming from those center lines. Several options were discussed, based on input from the public and EMA officials there will be no change this year.

Names for tropical storms in 2005: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Dennis, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irene, Jose, Katrina, Lee, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rita, Stan, Tammy, Vince, and Wilma. Hurricane names repeat every six years; this was the exact list used in 1999 (no hurricanes were strong enough in 1999 for the name to be retired).

The Tuesday afternoon web video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

I am seeing a few light echoes on radar over central Alabama this afternoon in a band from near Linden to Montgomery to Auburn, but I doubt if any of that is reaching the ground. The air remains very dry, and our chance of rain stays very low for the next seven days or so.

We might see a few sprinkles on Thursday with a passing short wave, but once again the lack of moisture will prevent most places from seeing any measurable rain. If we do get rain on Thursday, it probably won't be enough to settle the dust.

A warming trend begins Friday which will continue through the weekend; we should be close to 80 degrees by Sunday.

The 12z run of the GFS is hinting the next decent rain event will be at mid-month, in the May 15-17 time frame, as a long wave trough tries to become established over the central U.S. This is the first time I have seen this; lets see if we get some model consistency in future runs.

I enjoyed speaking over at Pleasant Grove school in Cleburne county today at Hollis Crossroads... the kids were great. Hard to believe we are close to wrapping up this year; this will be the 26th year of school programs and KIDCAM videos for me. I am well into the second generation now!

A new chief arrives tomorrow (May 4) to head the Birmingham Forecast Office of the National Weather Service located at Shelby County Airport.

Well...they are not called chiefs...instead they are known as an MIC which means Meteorologist In Charge. In Havana Junction, we would have said simply "The Boss."

Jim Stefkovich is the new guy. He comes to Birmingham from Chicago where he was the MIC there, but as you can see from the attached press release, Jim has a lot of experience with the weather here in the Southeast.

We will surely miss Ken Graham who was promoted to the NWS Regional Office, Fort Worth...but we welcome Jim.

I was on the staff of the NWS for 32 years--all in the Birmingham Office. I started in 1957 when weather satellites had not been invented, we had no radar at that time either, no weather radio, no computers. So today's NWS is many light years ahead of 1957. I saw a lot of the technology evolve. I was especially glad that I got to see the development of weather radio. I spent countless hours on that. When I visit the office at Shelby County Airport, it still seems almost like home.

Here is the complete text of this morning's press release from the NWS:
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Veteran meteorologist Jim Stefkovich has been appointed Meteorologist in Charge (MIC) of the NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Office in Birmingham, Ala. Stefkovich replaces former MIC Ken Graham who was promoted to Systems Operations Division Chief at Southern Region Headquarters (SRH). The Birmingham office is one of 122 National Weather Service Forecast Offices in the nation and one of 32 serving in the Southern Region.

“A Meteorologist-in-Charge is the front line officer carrying out the National Weather Service mission of serving the American public by helping protect lives and property,” said retired Air Force Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, director of the NOAA National Weather Service. “We are proud to have Jim Stefkovich serving in this important role.”

Stefkovich launched his NWS career in 1982 as a Student Trainee/Computer Programmer at NWS Techniques Development Laboratory in Silver Spring, Md. He served as a Meteorological Observer at the Weather Service Meteorological Observation site in Waycross, Ga. (1984) and became a Forecaster Intern at the Weather Service Office in Lake Charles, La. in 1985. Three years later, he moved to the Atlanta, Ga. office as a Forecaster. In 1991, he joined the SRH staff as the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) regional focal point responsible for coordinating WSR-88D implementation. He served as the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the Weather Forecast Office (WFO) in Fort Worth, Texas (1993 – 2000) before being promoted to Meteorologist-in-Charge (MIC) of the WFO in Jackson, Miss. He spent the last three years serving as MIC for the WFO in Chicago.

AJim Stefkovich offers a wealth of meteorological expertise and experience in severe weather forecasting as well as considerable skill in building vital service delivery relationships with local communities and our partners,” said Bill Proenza, director, National Weather Service Southern Region. “His leadership abilities will also serve to continue and enhance the fine record established by the outstanding staff in the Birmingham office.”

His hands on experience in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Georgia provides Stefkovich with an excellent perspective on the volatile nature of the weather in the southeast region of the country. That experience will be a considerable asset in providing the citizens in Birmingham’s warning area with the best possible forecast and warning services.

Stefkovich is the recipient of numerous local and regional awards including Office Unit Citations and a Bronze Medal for superior service during hurricane and tornado outbreaks. He has also assisted in national leadership courses for multiple government agencies.

He holds a bachelor's degree in Meteorology from Pennsylvania State University (1983). He is a member of the American Meteorological Society and National Weather Association and has authored and presented several papers at national conferences. Stefkovich has also served on several national NWS teams, including the Service Assessment Team for the deadly April 1998 tornado outbreak in Alabama and Georgia.

He lives with his wife Barbara and two daughters.

The National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. The NWS operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and providing environmental stewardship of our nation’s coastal and marine resources.

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On the Web:
NOAA: http://www.noaa.gov
NOAA National Weather Service: http://weather.gov
NOAA National Weather Service Southern Region: http://www.srh.noaa.gov

The Tuesday morning web video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

I also posted some of the storm damage pictures from our viewers over on the cool pictures page:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/coolpics.hrb

I really love these cool days. Soon we will be in the middle of the long hot summer, featuring that oppressive Alabama heat and humidity. We would do anything for weather like this in July and August.

Sure looks like we stay dry through the weekend. A few sprinkles are possible on Thursday, mainly over the southeast part of Alabama, as an inverted trough sets up over the Gulf coast states. But, with little moisture you will have a hard time getting any significant rain, even down south.

We begin to warm up late this week, and by the weekend we will be in the upper 70s on Saturday and low 80s on Sunday. The weekend will be rain-free.

Some hint the next opportunity for wet weather will come around Tuesday of next week (one week from today) with a weakening cold front, but it sure looks like the ain short wave action will stay west and north of Alabama through mid-month.

Check out the video... looks like the southern plains guys might see their first severe weather action of the season around May 11-13.

AND, at end of the forecast cycle (384 hours), check out that system east of Daytone Beach. Our first tropical disturbance of the 2005 hurricane seaason? Guess it is almost that time of the year...

Headed over to east Alabama to speak to the kids at Pleasant Grove Elementary School in Cleburne county today... I will be awfully close to Mt. Cheaha (the school is at Hollis Crossroads at the intersection of U.S. 431 and Alabama 9)... it will be very tempting to drive up the mountain but time won't allow it today!