Another big forecast ahead for a big sports weekend in Alabama. Last week we had race weekend at Talladega; now our attention turns to golf. The Bruno's Memorial Classic, which was played many years at the Greystone Golf Club, was named in memory of Angelo and Lee Bruno who were tragically killed in a plane crash just days after the tournament's official announcement. Angelo and Lee Bruno have been Honorary Chairmen in Memoriam since the inaugural event in 1992.

Last year, Regions Financial Corporation signed on as the title sponsor thus the tournament is now called the Regions Charity Classic presented by Bruno’s Supermarkets. The tournament will also have a change of venue. The Renaissance Ross Bridge Golf Resort and Spa will be the home for this number one stop on the Champions Tour in 2006. The golf course, part of the Robert Trent Jones Golf Trail, is the third longest course in the world. Ross Bridge is in the far western part of Hoover, in the Oxmoor Valley below Shades Mountain. It is a beautiful place; I had the pleasure of attending a retreat there last year.

Like last weekend, we have a difficult forecast. We do expect rain to increase around here by Friday afternoon, but there is a decent chance the tournament can get off to a dry start Friday morning. The most recent computer model runs have backed off on the amount of rain expected here on Saturday, but with the pattern we have you can’t rule out a few periods of rain Saturday. And, unfortunately, it looks like rain will be possible at times on Sunday as well. Early in the week, Sunday looked like a very nice day, but that has changed. The good news is that the chance of severe weather Saturday and Sunday at this time looks small, and it won’t rain all day. But, we do suggest you take the rain gear on all three days of the tournament!

Thanks to Steven, Brandi, and Christine Gortney for sharing this nice shot of a rainbow in Munford... the picture was taken around 6:30 p.m. looking toward Mt. Cheaha:

Thunderstorms from this afternoon and evening over North and NE Alabama have mostly faded away.

A strong storm just over the border in Tennessee.

This should be our last update unless there is significant redevelopment.

At 5:20 pm:

A group of thunderstorms along Interstate 20 east from near Cook Springs eastward to near Anniston-Oxford and into South Cleburne County. Locally heavy rain.

To the north, thunderstorms over Central St. Clair County to near Gadsden not as strong.

Still other thunderstorms along the Cullman-Morgan County line and still others in the general vicinity of Athens and Huntsville.

General movement toward the ESE and they should start going downhill in intensity.

The thunderstorm that prompted the Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Cullman County is now part of a group of storms that extends southeastward across Blount and Central St. Clair County to a point along the Calhoun-Talladega County line west of the Anniston-Oxford area.

Movement generally toward the southeast.

Lots of lightning in those storms.

Further north, other thunderstorms were over Lawrence and Morgan County.

Around 2:50 pm, dime size hail covered the ground at Trimble, SW of Cullman and near the NE edge of Smith Lake.

Over in Blount County, the EMA Office reported pea-size hail at Cleveland.

Jim McCravey, official NWS observer for Hanceville (Cullman County) reported that the thunderstorm passed south of his area. He did not get any hail and received only 0.07 of an inch of rain.

(Scroll down to see/hear the afternoon video update and discussion from James)

The Wednesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Don't forget, all of our video and audio products are now available on iTunes... just search for ABC 33/40 in the podcast section.

I am not totally sure what treacherous means, but J.B. used it in his headline today over on the seven day forecast page,and I will use it here. Confidence in the weekend forecast is not really high now. Lets break it down one day at a time:

THIS EVENING: Scattered strong storms will continue this evening, mainly north of Birmingham. The stonger storms as I write this are lined up from the eastern part of Smith Lake to Good Hope to Oneonta. And, those storms are hardly moving. Some spots in Cullman and Blount counties will wind up with one one inch of rain, but most of Alabama won't see a drop tonight.

TOMORROW: No big change from today; partly sunny, warm, and humid with widely scattered afternoon and nighttime showers and storms. We should reach the low 80s again.

FRIDAY: Showers and storms should become more numerous by Friday afternoon as a surface front approaches from the north. Periods of rain and a few storms are likely Friday night as well. Strong storms will be possible, but a major severe weather problem doesn't look likely at this point since instability values won't get out of hand.

THE WEEKEND: Quite a problematic forecast. The 12Z models have backed off on rain for Saturday, and bring in more rain on Sunday. Not the picture we painted this morning.

While I am not totally convinced the dry solution is correct for Saturday, I do need to think we need to insert at least a chance of rain on Sunday as a wave of low pressure forms on the front over southwest Alabama.

I will not be shocked to see the models bring the rain back on Saturday on the 00Z runs later tonight. But, if you do have something planned outside on Saturday, there is a ray of hope.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS hangs on to enough moisture for a few showers on Monday, then dry air moves in here on Tuesday.

MID-MONTH: The 12Z GFS shows an omega block over North America around May 15... this would put Alabama in a dry northwest flow aloft on the back side of an eastern U.S. trough. I would not trust anything this far out, however, since we are having a hard time resolving weather details just three days in advance right now!

SKYCAMS: Don't forget you can see images and weather data from all of our SKYCAM network sites here:

http://www.abc3340.com/static/skycams/skycamsmain.html

We are adding high temp, low temp, daily rainfall, and daily peak wind gust to the data from all sites set tonight or tomorrow; that will be very helpful.

I will have the next map discussion video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

Storm spotters reported around 2:50 pm that dime size hail was covering the ground at Trimble in SW Cullman County.

Trimble is on the NE edge of Smith Lake SW of the city of Cullman.

The storm was continuing toward the ESE toward Good Hope and hanceville. The NWS extended the warning until 4 pm.

This storm may affect Blount County later.

A cluster of strong thunderstorms deveoped over North Alabama this afternoon. The NWS in Huntsville issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Cullman County until 3:15. The storm was moving east at 25.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is posted until 9 o'clock tonight for
Central and East Arkansas
Extreme North Mississippi
Part of West Tennessee

The Wednesday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Not much change in the weather here during the short term. Today and tomorrow will be warm and humid, and will feature a mix of sun and clouds. We will continue to mention isolated late afternoon and nighttime showers and storms, with the best chance over the Tennessee Valley of extreme North Alabama. You can't rule out one or two as far south as I-20, but the chance of any one spot getting wet remains small. Most of the organized storms will stay north and west of here.

FRIDAY: A surface front slips into far North Alabama on Friday, and should mean an increase in the number and coverage of showers and storms for the northern half of the state. Still looks fairly wet by Friday afternoon and Friday night. Instability values are not too impressive, and hopefully that will prevent any severe weather problems. A strong storm or two can't be ruled out, however.

SATURDAY: THe surface front creeps through, so periods of rain and a few thunderstorms look likely on Saturday. Won't rain all day, but the rain could come at any time. QPF guidance still suggest 1 to 2 inches of rain here in the Friday/Saturday time frame, with some 2 to 3 inch totals to the north, near the Tennessee border.

SUNDAY: I am getting a little uncomfortable with the "sunny" forecast I have going on Sunday. The upper trough really lifts out to New England, and bypasses Alabama. So, the southward progression of the front won't be fast. For now I will maintain the dry forecast on Sunday, but if the 12Z run continues to come in slower we might have to hang on to some rain Sunday morning, mainly for areas south of I-20. Some rain looks like for South Alabama on Sunday.

MONDAY: Looks dry and pleasant.

LONG RANGE: Still not much confidence in the mid-May outlook due to model madness. The 00Z GFS hints at good rain events here around May 12 and May 15, but take it with a grain of salt.

SKYCAM NETWORK: Thanks to our friends at Status Station the camera up at Hamilton is back in operation after taking a wicked lightning hit a few weeks ago. See all of the images and weather conditions here:

http://www.abc3340.com/static/skycams/skycamsmain.html

We are going to adjust the weather conditions on the web and add daily high, low, rainfall, and peak wind gust soon.

The next map discussion video will be on the server by 3:30 this afternoon!