Well, not yet.

At 10 tonight, it is still officially Tropical Depression No. 3 but it was getting better organized as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula. The depression will spend Monday crossing the Yucatan emerging into the Southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday where it should grow into a Tropical Storm named Cindy.

The official NHC track forecast brings Cindy northward through the West Gulf and approaching the Upper Texas or West Louisiana Coast late Wednesday.

After making landfall, it is expected to curve rather sharply toward the NE. This means the remains COULD move across Alabama increasing our chances of a good rain event.

However, none of this is certain yet.

And we are sorta running ahead of the story because it is not Cindy yet.

10 PM FAST FACTS ON TD NO. THREE:

Location...Latitude 18.9N, Longitude 87.5W, about 115 miles SSW of Cozumel, Mexico
Maximum sustained winds...35 mph.
Movement...toward the NW at 9 mph
Lowest central pressure...1006 millibars or 29.71 inches

Will move onshore on the east side of the Yucatan early Monday morning
Could be tropical storm strength before landfall

Please log on to the 3340 Tropical Weather page for all the latest including the official NHC track forecast map. Here is the link:

http://www.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.html

The third tropical depression of the 2005 season has formed.

It has formed just east of the Yucatan Peninsula. At 4 pm, CDT, the center of TD No. 3 was located near Latitude 18.4N, Longitude 87.1W. This is about 80 miles east of Chetumal, Mexico and about 145 miles south of Cozumel, Mexico.

In a special 7 pm, CDT, statement, the National Hurricane Center advises that the depression has been nearly stationary for the last three hours and was becoming better organized. The central pressure has dropped to 1007 millibars. It could reach tropical storm strength before making landfall late tonight or early Monday. It would be named Cindy.

A Tropical Storm Warning has now been issued for portions of the Yucatan Peinsula,

Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches are possible over the northern Yucatan and extreme West Cuba. Another advisory at 10 tonight, CDT.

The center will emerge over the Southern Gulf of Mexico later Monday.

The official NHC track forecast brings the center into the NW Gulf of Mexico east of the south coast of Texas by mid-day Wednesday.

It has been taking it's time this afternoon over South-Central Kansas. It has produced huge hail and damaging winds and several tornadoes.

Storm spotters report hail stones as large as four inches in diamater NW of Inman, Kansas. That is larger than my coffee mug and larger than softballs! Hail was covering the ground in parts of that area.

The NWS, Wichita, has been warning of winds as high as 80-90 mph in their Severe Thunderstorm Warnings!

That's scary...

A quick note... we have created a seperate blog and RSS feed for our audio podcasts...

To listen to them on your computer anytime, get the podcasts here:

http://www.jamesspann.com/bmachine/podcast.php

To have the podcasts downloaded automatically via a podcast receiver, use this RSS feed:

http://feeds.feedburner.com/Abc3340podcast

As of this afternoon we will not be posting our podcast files in the regular blog.

I know lots of folks are at the lake or away today; I will post this again Tuesday when everyone gets back in the saddle...

Thunderstorms had begun to fire just before noon time across the northern two-thirds of Alabama. Thunderstorms at 12:45 pm were aligned generally along the I-59 corridor.

The Storm Prediction Center issued a mesoscale discussion for our area which can be found at:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1615.html

It appears from the BMX sounding that the stronger thunderstorms will be capable of producing wet microbursts today. These are tough to warn for because of their rapid development and onset. Showers were still fairly spotty at this writing.

Additionally, a broad area of low pressure has formed in the western Caribbean Sea, so a tropical depression may be forming there. Hurricane Hunter aircraft are slated to investigate the area this afternoon. Overnight convection seemed to intensify and become more concentrated, but the intensity has diminished somewhat this morning. That could well be the typical diurnal changes we often see. Something for us to watch as the future track is likely to bring anything that forms into the western Gulf of Mexico.

More later, I'm sure.

-Brian-

Video map discussion for Sunday, July 3rd, is on the server at: http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Lots of storms over the upper midwest yesterday with that area projected under a moderate risk of severe weather today by the Storm Prediction Center. Two clusters of storms yesterday according to storm reports - one over the upper midwest and one primarily over Louisiana with a complex of thunderstorms. A scattering of severe weather reports across a portion of the Carolinas, too.

For Alabama it looks like today will be a close copy of yesterday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected with showers being more numerous in the south and southeast sections of Alabama.

Our attention is also drawn to the tropics where that disturbed area of weather in the western Carribbean Sea has become more concentrated according to the latest satellite images. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate that area today. Winds aloft have become more favorable, and there is a possibility of seeing a depression form in that area in the next 18 to 36 hours. If this area strengthens and a depression forms into a tropical storm, it would be the third named storm of the 2005 hurricane season. It would be called Cindy.

Some differences in the models on the future course of the disturbed area in the tropics, so it is something we'll want to watch over the next few days. GFS seems to build the ridge further to the west keeping any storm that forms in the western Gulf and threatening central Texas coast. NAM a little less strong on the ridge allowing the system to come toward the Louisiana coast. We'll be watching with keen interest to see how later model runs handle the system.

Have a safe Fourth of July - Happy Independence Day!

-Brian-