We had a big decision on our hands. This could be the chance we had been looking for to see an impressive supercell thunderstorm. Then again, it could turn out like the other days we had chased. The opinions varied across the group. Some were ready to give it one last shot and give up a relaxing afternoon. Others were sick of all the disappointment and were ready to just take it to the Holidome. I was sort of on the fence. I knew it would be terrible if we didn't chase the storm and it produced a tornado while we were playing putt-putt. I also knew that no one would be happy if we drove an hour past Elk City and didn't see anything special.

Those who wanted to give it one last shot won out. The leaders of the trip genuinely felt bad about how uneventful the storm chase had been, so they wanted to try one more time to try to see what we came to see. So instead of stopping in Elk City, we continued west towards the panhandle of Texas. The storms we were after were fairly close to where we had spent 3 previous days of the trip. We crossed over the Oklahoma-Texas border and kept going. We had gotten 20 or so miles into Texas when we exited the interstate. We pulled off the road and stopped, and I thought that those in charge of navigation were stopping to decide which way to best intercept the storms.

No such luck. We were stopping because the last several radar updates had shown that the storms were weakening significantly. We were still a decent drive away from getting into good position to chase, so the decision was made to turn around. Needless to say, that did not go over too well with everyone. Those who had wanted to chase were disappointed for sure, but those who had wanted to relax were not happy at all. I could understand both sides, and even though I was a bit annoyed that we had wasted a good chunk of our afternoon, I understood where the leaders were coming from.

So we headed back towards Elk City. I'll have to say that it felt like a long drive even though it was only an hour or so. Once we got to the hotel, everyone's mood lightened. The Holidome was cool, we ate some good Mexican food down the road, and home was in sight. Only two more days to go.

Drew McCombs
ABC 33/40 Weather Intern
abc3340wx2@gmail.com

Only thunderstorms over the west part of Franklin and Colbert County in Extreme NW Alabama are hanging in there at 7 pm.

Further south, the storms that moved north through East Walker County and then across Smith Lake were mainly clustered over West Cullman County at 7 and decreasing. But still producing locally heavy rain. Most of them west of Interstate 65.

A few were as far east as SW Blount County headed NE in the general direction of Oneonta.

In Tuscaloosa County, a small thunderstorm has grown stronger on the east side of Tuscaloosa. It was mostly north of Interstate 20/59 in the general vicinity of Holt. Producing heavy rain as it also moves north.

No Severe Thunderstorm Warnings this afternoon. The stronger storms produced some brief strong winds at Winfield, but mostly localized downpours.

0.30 in Sumiton is one rainfall report we have already.

Some communities getting very welcome rain late this afternoon.

Only thing, overall, only a small precentage of the countryside getting the benefit.

At 5:15, some of the heavier showers and storms:

* East Walker County in the Empire, Dora, Cordova areas
* I-65 south near Hoover (a small one)
* Marion County near Hamilton

Earlier, one of those storms moved through Winfield. Kim Langston, 3340 Skywatcher reported that about 4:10 pm, a strong wind, possible a downburst, lifted a portable building about 12x15 feet in size, possibly larger, at the Foodland Shopping Center. It was raining so hard that the visibility at one time was only a few feet.

These are some of the main storms...not all inclusive. Movement is mostly toward the NW and north.

Remember, on a day like this, each post may be outdated quickly because storms are forming, dissipating and moving. Thunderstorms were widely spaced just before 4 o'clock but some of the main ones were:

* Over Lamar and Fayette County in West Alabama
* NW Winston County
* NE Jackson County, as far into the NE corner of Alabama as you can go
* East Tuscaloosa County and a few over into West Jefferson

Movement is slow but generally toward the NW and north.

The Monday afternoon map discussion video is on the web, and available on iTunes:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

Here are some highs around our SKYCAM network as of 3:00 this afternoon:

Demopolis 98
Inverness 97
Hamilton 96
Tuscaloosa 96
Downtown Birmingham 95
Gadsden 94
Cheaha State Park 90

Interesting to note that Cheaha is down to 79 degrees as I write this thanks to a passing rain shower... the total up on the mountain is 0.05".

You can see the picture and observation from Cheaha here:

http://www.abc3340.com/static/skycams/skycamscheaha.html

FOR THE FOURTH: I don't think the weather will really change much tomorrow. Highs mostly in the mid 90s; a few isolated afternoon and evening showers and storms. The chance of any one spot getting wet tomorrow is about one in eight.

WETTER AND COOLER? Sure sounds good... but of course weather changes this time of the year are not exactly drastic. However, as the upper ridge breaks down and a weak front approaches from the north, we should see an increase in the number of scattered showers and storms on Wednesday and Thursday. And, the heat should back down a bit. The new MOS guidance from the 12z GFS suggests a high of 89 on Wednesday, and only 83 on Thursday. That sounds a little too cool... but there is no doubt days will be "cooler". Rainfall distribution will be very uneven, but some spots could get over one inch of rain in the heavier storms.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Drier air slips into the northern half of the state, and these three days look mostly sunny with lower humidity. Highs around 90, early morning lows in the low to mid 60s. We might even see some of the cooler spots reach the upper 50s by Saturday morning. Scattered showers and storms should be confined to the far southern part of the state over the weekend.

TROPICS: If the surface front makes it into the northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, we will be watching for the potential for a tropical depression to form, which sometimes happens under those circumstances this time of the year. And, tropical depressions can bring beneficial rain. We will be watching...

Elsewhere today the Atlantic basin is pretty quiet...

LONG RANGE: Still looks like the most intense heat during mid-July will be over the southwest part of the nation; the GFS is suggesting "normal heat" here with at least a daily chance of scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms.

I will crank out one map discussion video tomorrow... and go back to the regular "two a day" schedule on Wednesday when most folks are back at work. Have a wonderful holiday!

Showers and storms are still widely spaced around Alabama. At 2:00 p.m., here is where some of them are located.

* NE DeKalb County NE of Ft. Payne

* Northern Calhoun County north of Jacksonville

* Near Bankston in the SE bootheel of Fayette County

* Over west and SW of Clay County in East-Central Alabama

Some of the strongest storms were NE of Ft. Payne and the ones in Clay County. They were moving very little.

ABC 33/40 BLOG readers report an impressive 30-minute shower within the last hour at Jacksonville in NE Calhoun County.

A few widely spaced showers and thunderstorms developed over Northeast and East Alabama early this afternoon.

Around 1:15 pm, they were located:

* NW of Gadsden
* West of Guntersville
* South Clay County

If you could bunch all of the showers in the state together at this time, the area getting rain would be far less than one percent.

Best showers were over South Clay County south of Ashland.

They are like humans in this July heat--they don't want to move--just drifting.

Others will be forming and dying in this afternoon heat. We believe your chance of getting rain is very, very low.

Another hot afternoon. A one o'clock look:

90 in Mobile
92 in Montgomery
93 in Gadsden, Demopolis, Muscle Shoals
94 in Birmingham, Tuscaloosa Huntsville
95 in Anniston

Anniston still has not reached the 100-degree mark so far this year.

The Monday morning map discussion video is on the web, and available via iTunes:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

Thanks to John Oldshue for covering the TV shift, and to J.B. Elliott and Bill Murray for handling Internet and radio duties while I was away on vacation. We had a great getaway to the Biltmore Estate in North Carolina. Everyone needs a little down time; I know many folks won't be around the office this week thanks to the July 4th holiday.

THE ALABAMA STORY: Looks like an interesting week ahead. Of course, the heat will remain the big story today as afternoon temperatures climb into the 95 to 99 degree range again. And, like recent days, a few showers and storms will probably show up during the peak of the heat, but they will be widely spaced. The chance of your lawn getting wet today is only about one in eight.

FOURTH OF JULY: The upper ridge begins to break down, but I am not sure the weather will change all that much tomorrow. The heat might back off slightly, and there could be a small increase in the coverage of afternoon showers and storms. But, we are still talking highs in the mid 90s, and most fireworks shows will not be bothered by rain tomorrow night.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: The models continue to develop a significant upper trough over the eastern half of the nation, driving a rare summer "cold front" down this way. Yeah, you know what we always say, "this is July in Alabama and fronts rarely make it south of I-20". There is great truth in that, and there is a chance the front will indeed hang up somewhere over North Alabama. But, our pal the GFS drives the boundary all the way into South Alabama by Thursday night, and into the northern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend.

We will bring in a pretty decent chance of scattered showers and storms on both days. But, remember this is summer and rainfall distribution will be very uneven. If you are lucky you might get over one inch of rain, but some neighborhoods will be short-changed. At least we have a decent chance of seeing soil moisture levels increasing.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY: For now we won't mention any showers on these three days. We might have to bring back a chance of isolated afternoon storms, but the models sure look dry. The dry air should mean a pretty big temperature range; low 60s early in the day with low 90s by mid to late afternoon.

LONG RANGE: The most intense heat around the nation in the July 10-18 time frame shows up in the southwest states, where the dreaded "594 circle" shows up (where the 500 mb height is 5940 meters). The GFS suggests a fairly moist airmass covering the Deep South suggesting a decent chance of afternoon showers and storms on a daily basis during that time frame.

TROPICS: Parts of East and South Texas will be soaked today thanks to an unorganized tropical disturbance moving from the western Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, the Atlantic basin is pretty quiet.

If the GFS is correct and the surface front makes it down to the northern Gulf of Mexico this weekend, we will watch that region since it is a preferred setup for early season tropical development.

JOIN THE PARTY: A reminder we just activated our latest web project, WeatherParty.com. This is a site where you determine what gets published to the front page. If you see an interesting weather product, image, or story, submit the link. The users vote on all submitted links, and the most popular ones make it to the main page. There is always some interesting reading over there:

http://www.weatherparty.com/

Be sure and register and submit links (and vote on other links

I will have the next map discussion video available by 3:30 this afternoon!