The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch effective until 5 a.m. CST for the following counties in Northwest Alabama...
COLBERT... CULLMAN... FAYETTE... FRANKLIN... LAMAR... LAUDERDALE... LAWRENCE... LIMEESTONE.... MADISON... MARION... MORGAN... PICKENS... WALKER... WINSTON

The airmass over Northwest Alabama is becoming more unstable late tonight. Low pressure is located over western Tennessee tonight. Thunderstorms began forming earlier this evening over Tennessee in advance of warm front that has been pushing northward all day ahead of the low. Back to the west, strong thunderstorms are erupting over northern Mississippi ahead of a cold front.

Thunderstorms will continue to develop ahead of the front overnight. Any individual storms that form ahead of the line could produce tornadoes.

Residents of Northwest Alabama should make sure they have a way to receive warnings overnight tonight, even while they are sleeping. Please stay weather aware overnight tonight.

The 2005 North Atlantic Hurricane Season started early, just eight days into June. Tropical Storm Arlene formed in the western Caribbean, crossed Cuba and made landfall near Pensacola. Arlene reached a maximum intensity of 70 mph, but weakened to 60 mph before landfall. Tropical Storm Bret was one of five storms in the Bay of Campeche during the year. Did I say there were thirteen hurricanes this year? Well, actually there may have been fourteen. Tropical Storm/Hurricane Cindy passed over the Yucatan and emerged into the southern Gulf on July 4th. It moved northward, but did not become a major hurricane despite warm waters. It made landfall near Grand Isle, Louisiana. Cindy brought heavy rains to Alabama.

Hurricane Dennis was the first major hurricane of the year. It formed in the Caribbean and became a Category Four hurricane before striking Cuba. It intensified again over the southeastern Gulf and struck the Northwest Florida coast near Navarre Beach on the 10th of July. Fortunately, it had weakened slightly to a Category Three storm before striking the coast. The small storm caused heavy damage across parts of Southwest Alabama. Hurricane Emily moved across the Caribbean, becoming a Category Four south of Hispaniola, before striking Cozumel on July 18. A review of the data indicates that Emilymay have actually been a Category Five hurricane. If this turns out to be true, then there will have been four Cat Five storms. There have never been more than two.

Tropical Storm Franklin formed in late July. It briefly threatened Bermuda. Tropical Storm Gert followed the same path as Hurricane Emily, making landfall in eastern Mexico. The storm brought heavy rains to those areas that had been affected by Emily. Tropical Storm Harvey formed on August2 and briefly threatened Bermuda. The island picked up a wind gust of 51 mph. Hurricane Irene was a long lived Cape Verde storm that never made landfall. Tropical Storm Jose was another storm that formed over the Bay of Campeche. The tropical storm made landfall just north of Verzcruz on August 22.

Then there was Katrina. What else can be written about this storm. It is the most devastating hurricane in the history of the United States, producing over $80 billion in damage and dorwning the City of New Orleans. Katrina formed in the southeastern Bahamas on August 23. It crossed the Florida Peninsula and passed into the Gulf. It became the sixth most powerful hurricane ever observed in the Atlantic with a pressure of 902 millibars on the morning of August 28th. It struck land early on the morning of the 29th. 1,200 people died.

How about this for a big temperature contrast across Alabama at 2 o'clock on this Saturday afternoon:

Fort Payne 37
Gadsden 41
Birmingham 61
Tuscaloosa 69
Montgomery 71
Mobile 76

Warm air is streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico.

Some colder air still trapped in the deep valleys of Northeast Alabama.

Just a quick update. Dewpoints continue to climb as the atmosphere gets more moist. The warm front has surged northward in Arkansas and runs roughly from Little Rock to Meridian to near Crestview. A low pressure center was located in extreme northeastern Oklahoma.

Overrunning precipitation has not become widespread yet - only a few patches of light rain in places in an area from about Montgomery to Tuscaloosa to Hamilton to Huntsville to Fort Payne to Auburn and back to Montgomery. Not much coverage in that area so any rain right now will be pretty brief. Most concentrated area is from Gadsden to Oneonta.

Patches of sunshine in South Alabama and Northwest Florida according to satellite images.

Temperature was 75 at Mobile but central and north Alabama remained in the 50s just before noon.

-Brian-

The Saturday map discussion video is on the server at:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Computer up and rebooted on it's own this morning, so running a little behind in getting the video uploaded. Bear with me.

Three days beyond the end of hurricane season and Hurricane Epsilon is still going strong in the Atlantic. This just adds to the record-breaking nature of the 2005 hurricane season. Epsilon should become extratropical in the next couple of days.

Closer to home, we have a wet couple of days in store for us plus turning sharply colder. And there is a threat of severe weather. Bill Murray just posted below some thoughts on the severe weather threat so I won't duplicate that here. Main threat appears to be damaging wind though a small area from Northeast Mississippi into Northwest Alabama may see a tornado threat due to good low level shear.

Rain should be fairly generous with 1 to 2 inches for almost everyone. Sure can use it in light of the deficit we have. And it looks like the pattern of wet weather may be with us through the first half of December.

Cold front drops into Central Alabama tomorrow and a low forms in the northwest Gulf and rides up the front across Southeast Alabama and Central Georgia. Cold air pours in behind the system late Monday and Tuesday as the atmosphere dries out. Always possible with these systems to see flurries but all too often the moisture leaves just ahead of the cold air so flurries is all we can usually expect.

Model differences make it difficult to give a confident forecast for the end of the week. GFS is now forecasting a strong high pressure system that will suppress any Gulf low development too far south to affect us. But this is definitely one of those where you need to stay tuned as we get closer to the event.

So wet Sunday and Monday and much colder into the middle of the week. Hope you have a great weekend. Looking forward to driving the Storm Chaser in the Helena Christmas parade this afternoon.

-Brian-

SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE?
The Storm Prediction Center does have the northwestern quarter of Alabama included in their Day One Outlook (today) for a slight risk of severe weather. The outlook is generally along and west of I-59. Thinderstorms are expected to intensify later today well to the west of Alabama in an unstable airmass. This activity is expected to become severe this evening over parts of extreme eastern Louisiana/Arkansas and move into Mississippi and western Tennessee, and eventually into Alabama. The SPC feels that severe storms are possible this evening into Northwest Alabama. There seems to be an enhaced area for possible severe weather centered right on the Alabama/Mississppi border in Northwest Alabama and Northeast Mississippi this evening.

The main threat should be from damaging winds, although large hail is possible and the idea of a tornado cannot be ruled out.

That means everyone should pay close attention to later forecasts and be on the alert for severe weather this evening and overnight.

The activity should weaken late tonight as it move into Georgia.

The chance for severe weather looks like it will be pushed further southward on Sunday as the cold front we are talking about may be a little further south than earlier expected. So for tomorrow, Central and South Central Alabama will have the chance for severe weather.

After falling quickly after sunset into the 20s and 30s overnight, temperature have bounced back early this morning. At 6 am:

Muscle Shoals 38 with light rain
Huntsville 39 with rain
Fort Payne 39 cloudy
Birmingham 48 cloudy
Tuscaloosa 50 cloudy

So far, have not heard any reports of a little sleet mixed in with the rain and temperatures are rising.

The weather will get more active over the weekend, so stay tuned.