NOAA USES NEW POST-STORM RATING SYSTEM FOR BIG NORTHEAST SNOWSTORMS
Winter Storms Ranked Like Tornado F-Scale

NOAA announced today that for the remainder of the winter season, its scientists will give the public a new, easy-to-understand scale to categorize major snowstorms after they effect the Northeast. The Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale, or NESIS, will quickly calculate the impact of a powerful snowstorm soon after it strikes, and give it a rank, similar to methods used to categorize the strength of tornadoes.

Until now, NOAA scientists had no way of sizing up a snowstorm's intensity with an index as understandable as the Saffir-Simpson scale for hurricanes, or the Fujita scale for tornadoes. While winds are used to measure hurricane intensity, NESIS will rank the severity of an East Coast snowstorm based on snowfall amount and the population of the affected areas. With NESIS, scientists can quickly assess a snowstorm's impact today, compare it with a storm of the past and assign it one of five categories: Notable, Significant, Major, Crippling or Extreme.

NESIS was jointly developed by Paul Kocin, a winter storm expert at The Weather Channel and Louis Uccellini, director of NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction in Camp Springs, Md. Thomas R. Karl, director of NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in Asheville, N.C., is leading the effort to put NESIS into action, starting with this year's snowstorms.

"The snowfall impact scale is designed to look retrospectively at a recent snowstorm - not to forecast one," said Uccellini, also a noted winter weather expert. "With its rankings, the scale will also give a better perspective on how these major storms affected populations in the Northeast." The snowstorm that moved through Northeast on December 8-9 was a NESIS category 2 (Significant) storm.

NCDC combined a mathematical model that Kocin and Uccellini developed into an automated Geographical Information System that determines the magnitude of each major snowstorm soon after it strikes. NOAA's NCDC, the official archive of U.S. weather and climate records, will be expanding the analysis to review all major storms that have hit the Northeast since the late 1800s.

"NOAA's ability to quickly collect and quality control snowfall observations - as these events unfold - combined with the new NESIS system will help us provide preliminary snowstorm assessments in days instead of weeks," Karl said. He added that NESIS will offer a way to better assess the impact of major snowstorms on the population.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and providing environmental stewardship of our nation's coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners and nearly 60 countries to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it observes.

On the Web:
NOAA: http://www.noaa.gov
NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction: http://www.ncep.noaa.gov
National Climatic Data Center: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov

The Monday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Colder and drier air will move into Alabama tonight and tomorrow following a band of showers and storms late this morning. Those storms are now moving into the southeast part of the state where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect.

Tomorrow will be a sunny but cool day with lots of sunshine and highs in the 50s.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY: Looks like Wednesday will be dry, but showers and storms are possible after midnight Wednesday night into the day Thursday with an upper impulse moving through. Severe weather is not likely, and rain probably won't be all that heavy on Thursday.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT: A much stronger system will bring another round of showers and storms in here by Friday afternoon or Friday night. This one will be very robust, and the dynamics will certainly support a threat of severe weather. As always in January, there is some question concerning the amount of mT (maritime tropical) air available and the associated instability, but with the Gulf of Mexico being open for a couple of days, I am concerned severe storms will be a very real possibility. The 12Z GFS suggests the best chance of severe weather will come from about 3:00 p.m. Friday through midnight Friday night, but that will probably change as we get closer to the event.

SATURDAY: A rapidly deepening surface low will move north of Alabama, and will pull down sharply colder air into the state with brisk north winds. Wrap around clouds look likely much of the state, and there could even be a few snow flurries over the Tennessee Valley of extreme North Alabama. Places like Huntsville and Scottsboro might remain in the 30s much of the day, while we stuggle to get into the low 40s down here.

LONG RANGE: The weather still looks very cold for the eastern half of the U.S. through much of February. I do think the weather will be considably colder down this way as well, and some mischief is very possible in the southern branch of the storm track along the way. Stay tuned...

We are working on getting for Storm Alert 2006 production all finished up and ready to go... I will have the next map discussion video on the server by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues for Extreme South and Southeast Alabama until 7 pm.

No part of North and Central Alabama included. Places like Mobile, Opp, Ozard, Dothan, just to name a few are included.

NWS Mobile has issued some Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for Extreme South Alabama. A cluster of strong to severe storms was located over South central Alabama at 2 pm moving NE.

Elsewhere not much going on. A few lighter showers in the central part of the state.

Much, much drier air spreading in from the west.

It is in effect until 7 pm, Alabama time.

No part of North or central Alabama included.

Here are the specific counties:

From ABC 33/40 E-Warn :

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 23
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM EST MON JAN 30 2006

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 23 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST
(7PM Alabama time)
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BALDWIN BARBOUR BULLOCK
BUTLER COFFEE CONECUH
COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE
ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY
HOUSTON MOBILE MONROE
PIKE RUSSELL

17 of 67 counties included...everything is south of Montgomery.

* 16% of the land area in the USA Lower 48 had freezing or lower at mid-day

* 5.4% of the USA population was feeling freezing or lower. Amazing for January!

* 0% of the country (not counting Alaska) had zero weather

* 0 at Big Piney, Wyo., was the USA low this morning (excluding Alaska)

* 88 at Laredo and McAllen, Tex., Sunday's highest (James does radio wx for a McAllen station)

* -56 at Fort Yukon was coldest in Alaska this morning. Some parts of Alaska have "warmed" considerably

* 1.32 inches is how much rain Portland got in the last 24 hours as wet, wet weather continues

* 12.03 is how much rain Salem, Ore., has had this month about twice normal

* 32 inches in Salem in last 4 months--way, way too much

* 18 days is how many times the Birmingham temperature reached or exceeded 60 so far this month Extremely unusual.

* 5 is how many days the old themometer was at or above 70

* 61.38 degrees is the average high this month, 9 to 10 degrees too warm.

* 0.79 is the Birmingham surplus in rain this month/year

* 33 is how many times Jason Simpson and Josh Johnson had uncontrollable laughing spells when we all met for lunch in Trussville Saturday. They must have been laughing at Bill Murray.

* 27 below zero was the low temperature at New Market, north of Huntsville 40 years ago today. It is the lowest official temperature ever recorded in Alabama.

* 24 below was the low that same morning in Russellville

* 20 below was the low in Jasper

* 70 Sunday afternoon was the high in a number of Alabama locales, including Tuscaloosa and Pinson as the month of January remains exceptionally warm.

* 0 was the number of coffee filters that Dave had this morning when he tried to make coffee. He had to use a paper towel, Dave is a regular reader of the 3340 weather blog.

Everything was way over on the east side of Alabama at noon....and moving away. The showers extended from Dekalb County in the NE corner of the state down along the counties near the Georgia border into South Central Alabama.

Lightning detection equipment shows that the amount of lightning has decreased.

Strongest storm seems to be in Lee County, near Opelika.

This does not mean that all the showers and storms are gone for good. A cold front has worked its way into West Alabama. As it moves east, it could trigger a few more showers.

Those showers and thunderstorms, that is.

Here is another look-see at 10:45 am good ole CST:

No longer a distinct line.

Instead, a broad band with the leaading eastern edge from Dekalb County in NE Alabama southward through Calhoun, Talladega, East Shelby, Coosa and North Montgomery County.

Strongest storms and the most lightning approaching Rockford and Montgomery.

Fairly strong storms also from west of Talladega to the SE corner of Chilton County.

Everything moving steadily east and ENE.

All of this is well to the east of places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Demopolis.

Doppler radar estimates the most rain so far around 0.70 of an inch.

Actual measurement of 0.12 at Greystone Cove, North Shelby.

Estimated 0.03 in NE Trussville

Here is how it looks at 15 minutes past 10:

ABC 33/40 doppler radar shows that most of the showers and thunderstorms extended from St. Clair County down through Central and East Shelby County to Chilton County. The strongest storms were near or south of Clanton. There are some lingering showers with lightning over Bibb and Perry Counties.

Almost all of the storms are now east of the Birmingham area and moving away. In fact, they are east of Jefferson County.

No thunder heard in Trussville, but we do have reports of thunder and lightning as close by as Huffman in the NE edge of Birmingham and we had earlier reports of some vivid lightning in Shelby County and some small hail in Marengo County.

Scan down for earlier posts that still have some useful information.

That line (or band) of showers and thunderstorms continues eastward at a good clip across Central and Southwest Alabama.

At 10 am, some showers and even some lightning was occurring as far north as East Cullman and Blount County. Theyextended southward from there to along the Jefferson-Shelby County line to near Centreville and along the Hale Perry County line between Greensboro and Moundville. Then all the way into Washington County north of the Mobile area.

Strongest storms seemed to be between Greensboro and Marion.

Small hail reported earlier in Marengo County.

The Storm Prediction Center believes the atmosphere will become more unstable with time. They are watching South Alabama closely. It may be that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch my be required by mid-day.

Early indications are that it should be from about Montgomery southward if issued.

We had reports of thunder and lightning at UAB in the last few minutes and reports of occasional bright lightning in Shelby County.

So far, no reports of high winds in the Greater Birmingham area.

A band os showers and thunderstorms continues moving steadily toward the ENE through parts of West Central and Southwest Alabama this morning.

At 9:30 am, they extended from West Jefferson County and East Tuscaloosa County down through Bibb, Perry, Hale and Greene County and into Southwest Alabama.

The strongest storms were from about Centreville southward. The part approaching the Birmingham area from the west does not appear to be strong.

Earlier, the NWS, Mobile, issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for several Southeast Mississippi Counties due to these storms.

Early this morning. nickle size hail was reported near Crystall Springs, Miss., and dime size hail at Star, Miss., in Rankin County.

The Storm Prediction Center has part of South Alabama under a slight risk of severe weather today. It is roughly south of a Livingston-Montgomery-Roanoke line.