This is a very historic week in weather forecasting history. It seems that each day in the week ahead is a red letter date in weather prognostication. Here is a brief summary:

May 1, 1868: Weather forecasting as a concept in the United States was conceived as the Director of the Cincinnati Astronomical Observatory unveiled a plan to his staff where they would establish an observation network like that of the Smithsonian that has fallen apart during the Civil War. They would use the observations to create public weather forecasts. That vision would become a reality on September 2, 1869 when the first forecasts were issued.

May 2, 1814: Surgeon General of the U.S. Army, Dr. James Tilton issued an order for Army surgeons in the field to keep diaries of the weather. This order established a loose network of meteorological observations.

May 3, 1999: A strange looking weather tool named a profiler helped meteorologists realize they were dealing with a more serious weather system than they thought. The profiler measures wind in the upper atmosphere using sound waves. Data during the morning indicated that upper winds were stronger than expected, allowing them to issue a high risk outlook. The additional awareness undoubtedly saved lives.

May 4, 1961: Neal Ward of the National Severe Storms Laboratory became the first person to use radar to direct him to a tornado intercept. While in communication with the lab by radio telephone, Ward captured a tornado near Geary, Oklahoma.

May 5, 1982: The Weather Channel began broadcasting. The most popular feature of The Weather Channel? Your local forecast…

May 7, 1857: The Washington Evening Star began publishing reports from the Joseph Henry’s far flung observation network.

I was doing a live update on WTDR-FM in Anniston about 20 minutes ago when NASCAR made the decision to postpone the Aaron's 499 due to rain.

Just too much on radar... I think the decision was a good one. For the past five days all weather parameters pointed to wet weather today, and rain and NASCAR racing doesn't make a good mix.

Tomorrow should offer a dry and mild day for the big race.

WINDS: Been watching weather data from our SKYCAM network site atop Mount Cheaha:

http://www.abc3340.com/static/skycams/skycamscheaha.html

Winds have been approaching 45 mph at times this afternoon...

ARE YOU KIDDING ME: I turned on the TV to take a look at network coverage of the NASCAR event at Talladega today and just saw a commercial on that station about their weather operation. The spot was laughable. In my old age, I really don't pay attention to the competition as much as I did years ago... we run our operation on our vision; what the others do in the market makes no difference.

That commercial featured one untruth, and one statement that was pretty misleading.

The commercial said they have the "largest weather team" in the market. HMMM.. at ABC 33/40 we have four meteorologists on staff, and with two contract meteorologists from The Weather Company (J.B. Elliott and Bill Murray) our grand total is six. We have the largest staff by far.

And, the commercial said that their station was "YOUR CHOICE". The implication is that they are the ratings leader during severe weather coverage. Once again, that is far from the truth. During most long form tornado coverage periods, ABC 33/40 has more audience that the other local stations combined. It is not even close.

Never let facts get in the way of a good TV promo... I have many friends at that station, and I worked there for many years. And, I need good competition. I am simply disturbed by the the words in this commercial. I am sure my friends over there would be just as disturbed if we ran some kind of spot like that.

Enough venting... back to a peaceful Sunday afternoon. I will have a full discussion and a new map discussion video available by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow...

NOON UPDATE: It's windy out there! A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for southeasterly winds that are frequently gusting over 30 mph.

A wave of showers is moving across Northwest Alabama across Marion, Walker and Winston Counties.

Showers are breaking out across much of East Central Alabama fromthe Birmingham Metro area north and eastward across the eastern half of the time. The activity is quickly becoming more numerous and increasing in intensity. This activity will affect the Talladega Superspeedway during the next couple of hours.

To the southwest...showers are increasing from southern Tuscaloosa County back through Hale, Green and Sumter Counties. Lightning is increaing with this activity. A thunderstorm was reported at Meridian MS. This activity is forming in an area of richer moisture. It will overspread areas west of a Bibb to Shelby to St. Clair County line later, including the Birmingham Metro area.

An area of showers is increasing over eastern Mississippi and western Alabama this morning...

A thunderstorm complex is firing over Noxubee... Kemper... Newton and Lauderdale Counties around Meridian...lightning strikes are beginning to increase. It appears to be associated with an upper level disturbance. It is moving north northeast.

This activity appears that it will move mainly over areas northwest of a line from Sumter through Hale... Tuscaloosa... Jefferson... Blount and Marshall Counties... It remains to be seen whether it will edge eastward as we go through time.

It likley will, and could bring a more extensive round of showers and perhaps a storm to the track later.

Other showers will form throughout the day across the area in advance of a cold front as Alabama is swuezed between a wedge from the east and the front to the west.

Some sun has broken out through thinning clouds over parts of Central Alabama. A little more sun could yield slightly higher afternoon temperatures. They could be closer to 70 before all is said and done than the 66 I forecast on average...

Be careful of thw wind...it is gusting to over 30 mph at timesA Lake Wind Advisory is in effect until 4 p.m. this afternoon...

The Sunday map discussion video is on the server at:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

There are times when it is really fun being a meteorologist, but there are also times when it is really tough being a meteorologist. Today is one of the tough times, and I suspect it's going to be a nail-biting day for race officials at Talladega with one eye on the sky, one eye on the radar, and one eye on the race!! Oops, perhaps they won't be watching the race since we have just two eyes. I know if I was there offering weather support, I would be watching the radar intently!!

Today will be a cloudy, cool day with some passing showers. A couple of bands of showers were passing through Central Alabama at this writing, and I expect to see a similar pattern for the rest of the day. This does not look like it will be a wash out day, however, depending on the timing of some of those showers, race delays could happen in the Aaron's 499 this afternoon.

And don't forget the sunscreen. Even with the cloud cover, ultraviolet radiation still makes it through the clouds, so protect the skin. With temperatures expected to reach only the mid and upper 60s, the strong south-southeast wind will make it feel cooler, so a light jacket may be needed.

The surface high is forecast to split on Monday with a center located over Apalachicola, FL. This will cut off the northward flow of Gulf moisture at least for the eastern half of the Southeast US. A small possibility still exists for showers because of moisture still in place. But it really looks like the first couple of days of the week will be dry.

The Gulf is still open into the mid-Mississippi River Valley, so the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a slight risk of severe weather outlooked across a sizable portion of the middle portion of the country for day 2 and 3.

Toward the end of the week, the GFS is showing a long wave trough becoming established over the eastern half of the US. This will put Alabama under northwesterly flow and keep temperatures at or below normal. In fact, the GFS is indicating the 5400 thickness values to reach Nashville on Saturday, May 6. With the long wave trough comes a cold front on Friday which should be our next substantial chance for rain.

Looking well ahead over week 2, the long wave trough weakens and then re-establishes itself keeping the Southeast US in a northwest flow regime. This would mean a period of normal and below normal temperatures for much of the next week. After a rather warm April, I could go for a cool May!

Thanks for checking in with the Blog. Hope that your Sunday will be a good one. I'm really looking forward to next weekend - that's the weekend of the Birmingham hamfest. A hamfest is a gathering of amateur radio operators with commercial vendors and other amateurs selling new and used equipment. There are also meetings of various amateur groups like storm spotters. It's a really great opportunity to see fellow hams that you probably haven't seen face-to-face since the last hamfest. It will be at the Zamora Temple located near the intersection of I-459 and I-20. If you are interested in ham radio, this is a great time to see a lot in one location. Hope to see you there.

-Brian-

WD4EPR

Many race fans already heading out to Talladega this morning...

Sorry we forgot to put in the order for good weather early enough. The folks who make the weather promise they will get us something a little nicer tomorrow. But for today, we have to take what we have.

Will it rain out the race? I still don't think so. Radars show quite a bit in the way of showers over Central Alabama. This activity is being enhanced by an upper level disturbance back over Mississippi. There is a break behind this first wave, which will move across the are between now and 9 a.m. Rainfall amounts will be light, generally less than a tenth of an inch.

Then it looks like there is a break. Activity is intensifying over South Mississippi. A tornado watch has been issued for Southeast Louisiana and extreme southern Mississippi, where a couple of strong storms continue. A tornado warning was in progress as I wrote for St. Bernard Parish and for Hancock County Mississippi.

I think this activity weakens as the upper low causing this weather moves on out well to our north. Hopefully, that will be the case and we will just endure a few scattered showers through the afternoon hours.

If something does happen and running the race is a problem today, tomorrow looks like a good weather day with at least partial sunshine and milder temperatures in the 70s.

I received an email from someone asking why The Weather Channel local forecast states that some storms could be severe for us today. Hmmmm... Can't quite see it. All of the upper level support is moving out to the north. The SPC has a Slight Risk well to our northwest. The activity to our south will weaken through the late morning hours. They do have us included in a thunder area, although we don't have thunder in our forecast. Bottom line: I don't think we will be worrying about severe weather.

Brian Peters will be weighing in with his valuable opinions shortly in the morning map discussion. Stay tuned for that...