We have often discussed our rain deficit for the year, which at one point was nearly six inches. Thanks to rain over the past couple of days, the rain deficit for the Birmingham metro is down to 3.48”, and should be reduced even more today and tomorrow as additional rain is expected. But, despite the relatively dry conditions this year, in the long term we are in pretty good shape.

Rainfall for the Birmingham metro area has been well above normal for the last four years. Our average annual rainfall here is 53.99 inches, and these are the totals for recent years: 2004: 61.26”, 2003: 65.45”, 2002: 64.43”, 2001: 67.26”. Some quick calculations show that we had a combined surplus of 42.44 inches for those four years!

But, back in 2000, we did suffer from dry weather conditions that led to a critical water shortage in parts of the state. The Birmingham rain total for 2000 was 50.05”, about ten inches below normal. The Birmingham Water Works and Sewer Board imposed a watering ban Sept. 29, 2000 because of critically low water levels at Lake Purdy, the main reservoir. Mountain Brook, Homewood, Hoover and Vestavia Hills also imposed bans, with penalties of up to $500 in fines and up to 180 days in jail. Three local companies and the city's Streets Department truck in nearly 3,000 gallons of water a day, plus 20,000 gallons more a week, from swimming pools, private lakes and even a rock quarry for the thirsty plants at the Birmingham Botanical Gardens. The dry conditions in 2000 also affected many other cities across the southeast, including Atlanta.

So, we can surely be thankful for the 42.44 inch surplus over the past four years, and thankful for additional rain that falls today and tomorrow that will really help knock out, or maybe even eliminate the deficit for 2005.

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A few thoughts from the office on this holiday afternoon...

*Models still look very wet for the next two days. Here is the latest extraction from the models (12Z runs):

GFS 2.35"
NAM 1.99"

Most all model output, including the WRF, suggest the heaviest rain during the next 36 hours will come along and south of I-20.

*The radar is very quiet right now... just a few patches of light rain. The big convective complex on the Gulf coast this morning cut off the good inflow today and accordingly rain had been light and spottty up this way since daybreak. We shouldn't have much rain for the rest of the day.

*This is a very cool Memorial Day. Birmingham's 1:00 temperature is only 65 degrees, almost 20 degrees below normal. Checked the thermometer atop Mt. Cheaha, and their temperature is a cool 59 degrees.

*That cool air means no severe weather problems for us; SPC maintains a slight risk of severe storms through tomorrow for the far southern part of the state.

J.B. Elliott is on the afternoon forecast shift; his package will be posted shortly over on the seven day discussion and forecast page:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb

I will be on the TV night shift... see you at 5:00 on ABC 33/40.

Hey! The intern is back!

After scattered showers this past weekend, Alabama's chances of rain are greater this Memorial Day.

Most of the rain will fall south of the Birmingham area. Alabamians from the coast up to Alexander City stand the best chance of rain.

Currently, there are three areas of significant rainfall in the viewing area: Cullman county-near Ragland, Talladega, and the Billingsley area in Autauga county.

These showers are only light rain right now, and I hope they do not hinder your holiday activities too much.

A check of the radar at 8:00 this morning gives credibility to the idea that Memorial Day plans north of I-20 will be rain-free for a good portion of the morning and midday hours. There are still light showers and sprinkles scattered around Walker, Tuscaloosa, Jefferson, and Shelby Counties, and there is more widespread light rain south of a line from Clanton to Wedowee to Ranburne in Cleburne County. The back edge of the more widespread rain is eroding away and moving slowly eastward; however, a new round of showers near Meridian, Mississippi right now will move east-northeast into areas mainly south of I-20 through the midday and early afternoon hours.

Storms along the Gulf Coast are interrupting the flow of warm, moist air northward this morning, and as long as the heaviest rain stays down there, we will escape with at the worst, periods of drizzle and light showers in the Birmingham metro area through the afternoon. The best news of all though is that no severe weather is expected today, so make the best of the day and keep an umbrella close by. Oh, and sandals probably aren't the best choice of footwear in weather like this!

Have a great Memorial Day!

**No video updates today; they will resume tomorrow**

A quick peek at weather on this Memorial Day reveals clouds and some light rain across Alabama. We will continue to highlight rain and a few storms through tomorrow. No severe weather, but the rain might be heavy at times. Latest model extraction looks like this:

NAM 3.72" (through 84 hours)
GFS 3.84" (through 60 hours)

The total yesterday at the Birmingham Airport was 2.62", which knocked our rain deficit for the year down to 3.49". SO... if the NAM and GFS are correct, then we will actually wind up with a rain surplus for the year by mid-week. That would be quite a turn around.

The rain will diminish greatly by Wednesday, as the pattern shifts to the more typical "scattered afternoon showers and storms" during the latter half of the week...

Down south a band of severe storms is moving along the Gulf coast; a severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for southeast Louisiana. Those storms will make for a wet day down at Gulf Shores today...