The 8th version of the ABC 33/40 Storm Alert tour kicks off this Thursday night in Ashville. We will be at Ashville High School; and even though the show begins at 7:00 we suggest you get down there by 6:30 or so to get a good seat. The show is designed to get Alabamians ready for the spring tornado season, and has become quite a tradition.
This year you will meet the “new kid on the block”, Jason Simpson. I went up to Holly Pond, Jason’s hometown, to get the real scoop on this guy. As you probably know, Jason spent this past weekend up on Mt. Cheaha all iced down thanks to freezing rain, and he will share some of Bill Castle's beautiful video of the ice on Alabama’s highest mountain.
Our own Bill Murray, one of our web forecasters here at ABC 33/40, will share the story of seeing his first tornado on the Great Plains in the spring of 2004, and the day when he saw seven twisters in just a few hours. This will be complete with video; if you love good tornado footage you have to see it.
John Oldshue will look back at the severe weather days during late November 2004. Especially November 24, when 16 tornadoes touch down during the early morning hours, touching down in places like Bynum, Talladega, Lake Mitchell, and Autaugaville. It was the year for the early morning tornado in Alabama.
And, of course, Brian Peters will share the biggest weather story of the year, Hurricane Ivan. Brian flew into the storm when it peaked in intensity over the warm Gulf waters, and covered it on the ground at Gulf Shores. In addition to more weather stories, we will have some cool prizes to give away. See you Thursday night at Ashville High School at 7:00!
See more details and the complete schedule here:
http://beta.abc3340.com/external.hrb?p=sa2005&w=1
Storm Alert 2005 Begins This Week!
January 31, 2005, 9:49 pm
by James Spann
in General Thoughts
Never A Dull Moment
January 31, 2005, 3:08 pm
The afternoon video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Nice little mid-week storm in the always tricky split flow regime. We will mention the chance of some light rain at times tonight and tomorrow, with the best chance of getting wet coming for areas south of Birmingham. Rain is likely statewide Wednesday, and the 12Z NAM is spitting out almost 1.5 inches of rain here.
Late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning the critical thickness values drop southward, giving the snow fans a little hope for something on the tail end of the system. It is possible we could see a little light snow or flurries late Wednesday nignt or early Thursday morning, but the best chance would be north of a line from Vernon to Cullman to Scottsboro. Even up there it doesn't look like it will amount to much now. These southern branch systems in a split-flow are very hard to deal with... always great potential for forecast busts.
A pretty good chance the sun comes out in decent supply Friday and Saturday before clouds return Sunday. I expect a good rain early next week, with the potential for a major change to colder weather in the Febraury 9-12 time frame. I do not like the way the 12Z GFS handles this... see the video for details. Watch that NAO negative spike around February 10... that is very important.
Enjoyed seeing the second graders over at Bluff Park Elementary this afternoon... about to dig into this nice cake!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Nice little mid-week storm in the always tricky split flow regime. We will mention the chance of some light rain at times tonight and tomorrow, with the best chance of getting wet coming for areas south of Birmingham. Rain is likely statewide Wednesday, and the 12Z NAM is spitting out almost 1.5 inches of rain here.
Late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning the critical thickness values drop southward, giving the snow fans a little hope for something on the tail end of the system. It is possible we could see a little light snow or flurries late Wednesday nignt or early Thursday morning, but the best chance would be north of a line from Vernon to Cullman to Scottsboro. Even up there it doesn't look like it will amount to much now. These southern branch systems in a split-flow are very hard to deal with... always great potential for forecast busts.
A pretty good chance the sun comes out in decent supply Friday and Saturday before clouds return Sunday. I expect a good rain early next week, with the potential for a major change to colder weather in the Febraury 9-12 time frame. I do not like the way the 12Z GFS handles this... see the video for details. Watch that NAO negative spike around February 10... that is very important.
Enjoyed seeing the second graders over at Bluff Park Elementary this afternoon... about to dig into this nice cake!
Monday Morning QB
January 31, 2005, 6:34 am
The Monday morning video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Looking back at the Friday night/Saturday morning event for Alabama, I think the forecast worked out very nicely.
Here was the forecast discussion on the blog from last Thursday morning:
http://www.jamesspann.com/bmachine/wxtalk.php?id=278
No travel problems for 95 percent of our viewing area; you had to get over to the Georgia border counties (Cleburne, Randolph, and Chambers) to find significant bridge icing. No ice at all on road surfaces in those areas unless you were over 1,500 feet in elevation, like our pals Bill Castle and Jason Simpson on Mt. Cheaha. Enough ice on trees and lines for scattered power outages across those far eastern counties. Bad problems over the line in Georgia.
The warm soil temperatures were a big help (in the 44 to 47 degree range), and rain falling through the warm layer offset the evaporative cooling process right on time for Gadsden, Anniston, and Birmingham. All of this was exactly in line with our forecast package.
I will admit I was a little spooked Friday night when we saw that temperature drop from 40 to 33 in about one hour at our weather office in Riverchase, but it was steady as a rock at 33 degrees.
I still stand by the opinion that winter storm watches and warnings should be reserved for major events that call for real action, like preparing for extended power outages, airport shutdowns, and icy roads for multiple days. For most people, the Friday night/Saturday morning event was simply a cold wet period with some ice on exposed surfaces. I would indeed call it a winter storm for people in Cleburne, Randolph, and Chambers counties, but even in those areas it was a short term event. Far too many people hit the milk and bread lines Friday when it was not necessary. You call events like that a winter storm, and people won't listen when we have a real big time winter weather threat on our hands.
Much like the problem with severe thunderstorm warnings... for years I wanted to "raise the bar" on the severe thunderstorm criteria... we simply have too many severe thunderstorm warnings and people don't pay much attention to them.
Enough preaching and on to the future... split flow pattern means tough forecast. I had to introduce rain into the forecast for today simply because we have lots of rain on radar this morning! Some rain at times possible through mid-week, with the best coverage of rain on Wednesday.
You take some of the model data, and you can even see some wintry precipitation possibilities for Wednesday night for extreme north Alabama, but I don't like going wild with a forecast on Monday morning since I am coming in here without having looked at weather data too much over the weekend. Let me get settled in and we can discuss any idea on that later today.
A decent chance we finally see the sun on Friday and Saturday. Then, a significant storm moves through the southern stream in about one week with lots of rain here. The GFS does not show any phasing with the northern stream right now, but I don't trust it at all. And, I probably won't trust it this week.
Everything still looks on target for a big shot of cold air here in the February 10-12 time frame as the NAO spikes negative and a long wave trough forms over the eastern U.S. The details involving how we get there remain up in the air!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Looking back at the Friday night/Saturday morning event for Alabama, I think the forecast worked out very nicely.
Here was the forecast discussion on the blog from last Thursday morning:
http://www.jamesspann.com/bmachine/wxtalk.php?id=278
No travel problems for 95 percent of our viewing area; you had to get over to the Georgia border counties (Cleburne, Randolph, and Chambers) to find significant bridge icing. No ice at all on road surfaces in those areas unless you were over 1,500 feet in elevation, like our pals Bill Castle and Jason Simpson on Mt. Cheaha. Enough ice on trees and lines for scattered power outages across those far eastern counties. Bad problems over the line in Georgia.
The warm soil temperatures were a big help (in the 44 to 47 degree range), and rain falling through the warm layer offset the evaporative cooling process right on time for Gadsden, Anniston, and Birmingham. All of this was exactly in line with our forecast package.
I will admit I was a little spooked Friday night when we saw that temperature drop from 40 to 33 in about one hour at our weather office in Riverchase, but it was steady as a rock at 33 degrees.
I still stand by the opinion that winter storm watches and warnings should be reserved for major events that call for real action, like preparing for extended power outages, airport shutdowns, and icy roads for multiple days. For most people, the Friday night/Saturday morning event was simply a cold wet period with some ice on exposed surfaces. I would indeed call it a winter storm for people in Cleburne, Randolph, and Chambers counties, but even in those areas it was a short term event. Far too many people hit the milk and bread lines Friday when it was not necessary. You call events like that a winter storm, and people won't listen when we have a real big time winter weather threat on our hands.
Much like the problem with severe thunderstorm warnings... for years I wanted to "raise the bar" on the severe thunderstorm criteria... we simply have too many severe thunderstorm warnings and people don't pay much attention to them.
Enough preaching and on to the future... split flow pattern means tough forecast. I had to introduce rain into the forecast for today simply because we have lots of rain on radar this morning! Some rain at times possible through mid-week, with the best coverage of rain on Wednesday.
You take some of the model data, and you can even see some wintry precipitation possibilities for Wednesday night for extreme north Alabama, but I don't like going wild with a forecast on Monday morning since I am coming in here without having looked at weather data too much over the weekend. Let me get settled in and we can discuss any idea on that later today.
A decent chance we finally see the sun on Friday and Saturday. Then, a significant storm moves through the southern stream in about one week with lots of rain here. The GFS does not show any phasing with the northern stream right now, but I don't trust it at all. And, I probably won't trust it this week.
Everything still looks on target for a big shot of cold air here in the February 10-12 time frame as the NAO spikes negative and a long wave trough forms over the eastern U.S. The details involving how we get there remain up in the air!
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