ABC 33/40's annual severe weather awareness tour begins tomorrow (Thursday) night in Hamilton!
Storm Alert 2006 is the original Alabama weather tour, which features some amazing Alabama weather stories, prizes, and your change to meet the ABC 33/40 team of meteorologists in person! This is our ninth year to bring the tour to Alabama. Here are some of the stories we are featuring this year:
*Alabama's greatest tornado disaster: March 21, 1932. Meet a man who survived the disater in Chilton County at the age of four, but he lost his parents and five brothers and sisters. This is an amazing story of survival. Alabama weather historian J.B. Elliott will share details of the event.
*Global warming. Fact, or myth? What does it mean for Alabama? Brian Peters will explore the controversial subject.
*The amazing 2005 hurricane season. What is ahead for 2006? Jason Simpson talks with Alabama's top hurricane expert, Dr. Keith Blackwell from the University of South Alabama. He has some fascinating things to say, as always.
*The all new ABC 33/40 Sky Cam network. What is it? And, why is it a big deal? It is also interesting that this exciting new weather technology was developed by an Alabama company.
As always, we will feature some very useful information you can use as we approach the 2006 spring tornado season. Pick up a free copy of our new Storm Alert brochure, which contains great safety information for your family. And, you can meet James Spann, John Oldshue, Jason Simpson, and Brian Peters.
The show tomorrow night in Hamilton will begin at 7:00 at the Bevill State auditorium;’ be sure and get there early to get a seat!
Storm Alert 2006 Begins Thursday Night
January 31, 2006, 10:57 pm
by James Spann
in General Thoughts
A Cold Change By The Weekend
January 31, 2006, 1:16 pm
The Tuesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Wow... 589 people have died due to exposure from the cold in the Ukraine in the past two weeks. Amazing to see the record cold over much of the Northern Hemisphere. I know everyone here is talking about the mild January across the "lower 48", but our little corner of the world seems to be an exception. We are really blessed.
Dry weather continues through tomorrow. Another light freeze is likely tonight, but we warm into the low 60s tomorrow afternoon.
THURSDAY: A rather strong vort max rolls into the state on Thursday, and a few showers and thunderstorms are likely. No severe weather; rain amounts of 1/2 inch look likely at this point. The 12Z GFS is a little slower, so a shower or storm is possible at almost any time on Thursday statewide.
FRIDAY: The 12Z run of the GFS follows the lead of the 06Z run, and does not develop a rapidly deepening surface cyclone like we saw on the 00Z last night. I am pretty suspicious of this, but if the new run is correct we won't have any severe weather problems Friday night. Lets hope that is correct, but with such a strong jet max punching overhead I don't believe it just yet.
We will maintain the risk of showers and storms late Friday and Friday night. We need to note it still looks like much of the day Friday should be dry before those storms arrive.
A strong Polar front will roll through late Friday night, sometime in the midnight to 3:00 a.m. time frame....
A WEEKEND CHILL: The one thing all models are screaming is a big change to cold weather for the weekend. Our high of 43 still looks good for Saturday with an icy northwest wind. If we do not have a deep surface low to the north of us, we might have a chance of getting some sunshine on Saturday. But, a rather strong vort max will rotate through the base of the trough, and I still think we will have clouds much of the day. Might not be enough moisture for flurries, but I am not ready to take that out just yet.
The forecast low of 25 Sunday morning also looks good as a middle point... colder valleys might reach the upper teens if the wind can go calm. Sunday will be a dry but chilly day.
EARLY NEXT WEEK: An interesting impulse rolls through on Monday. Looks like this might bring snow to Tennessee north of I-40, with some light rain down this way.
LONG TERM: COLD is the word for the eastern half of the U.S. through much mid-February. No change in our thinking... and a wavy Arctic front just south of here could bring one or two winter storm threats. You can see that is almost every run of the GFS... we just can be specific so far out. There is no skill in a specific forecast beyond seven days.
STORM ALERT 2006: We are looking forward to being in Hamilton Thursday night to kick off our ninth annual severe weather awareness tour across the state. We will be dealing with subjects like the 1932 Alabama tornado outbreak (our deadliest on record), "global warming", and thoughts on the coming hurricane season from Dr. Keith Blackwell, one of the smartest tropical guys in the world (he is down at the University of South Alabama in Mobile). And, we will show some cool new weather technology we are installing now. And yep, t-shirts for the first 500 people and a chance to win more prizes. Hope to see you along the way... get details here:
http://beta.abc3340.com/external.hrb?p=stormalert&w=1
I knocked out the afternoon update a little early today since my program at Meadow View Elementary in Alabaster is at 1:30. be sure and look for those kids on the KIDCAM at 5:00 today on ABC 33/40 News.
I love J.B.'s "by the numbers" post every morning... I have always been a big "numbers" guy. Great stuff!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Wow... 589 people have died due to exposure from the cold in the Ukraine in the past two weeks. Amazing to see the record cold over much of the Northern Hemisphere. I know everyone here is talking about the mild January across the "lower 48", but our little corner of the world seems to be an exception. We are really blessed.
Dry weather continues through tomorrow. Another light freeze is likely tonight, but we warm into the low 60s tomorrow afternoon.
THURSDAY: A rather strong vort max rolls into the state on Thursday, and a few showers and thunderstorms are likely. No severe weather; rain amounts of 1/2 inch look likely at this point. The 12Z GFS is a little slower, so a shower or storm is possible at almost any time on Thursday statewide.
FRIDAY: The 12Z run of the GFS follows the lead of the 06Z run, and does not develop a rapidly deepening surface cyclone like we saw on the 00Z last night. I am pretty suspicious of this, but if the new run is correct we won't have any severe weather problems Friday night. Lets hope that is correct, but with such a strong jet max punching overhead I don't believe it just yet.
We will maintain the risk of showers and storms late Friday and Friday night. We need to note it still looks like much of the day Friday should be dry before those storms arrive.
A strong Polar front will roll through late Friday night, sometime in the midnight to 3:00 a.m. time frame....
A WEEKEND CHILL: The one thing all models are screaming is a big change to cold weather for the weekend. Our high of 43 still looks good for Saturday with an icy northwest wind. If we do not have a deep surface low to the north of us, we might have a chance of getting some sunshine on Saturday. But, a rather strong vort max will rotate through the base of the trough, and I still think we will have clouds much of the day. Might not be enough moisture for flurries, but I am not ready to take that out just yet.
The forecast low of 25 Sunday morning also looks good as a middle point... colder valleys might reach the upper teens if the wind can go calm. Sunday will be a dry but chilly day.
EARLY NEXT WEEK: An interesting impulse rolls through on Monday. Looks like this might bring snow to Tennessee north of I-40, with some light rain down this way.
LONG TERM: COLD is the word for the eastern half of the U.S. through much mid-February. No change in our thinking... and a wavy Arctic front just south of here could bring one or two winter storm threats. You can see that is almost every run of the GFS... we just can be specific so far out. There is no skill in a specific forecast beyond seven days.
STORM ALERT 2006: We are looking forward to being in Hamilton Thursday night to kick off our ninth annual severe weather awareness tour across the state. We will be dealing with subjects like the 1932 Alabama tornado outbreak (our deadliest on record), "global warming", and thoughts on the coming hurricane season from Dr. Keith Blackwell, one of the smartest tropical guys in the world (he is down at the University of South Alabama in Mobile). And, we will show some cool new weather technology we are installing now. And yep, t-shirts for the first 500 people and a chance to win more prizes. Hope to see you along the way... get details here:
http://beta.abc3340.com/external.hrb?p=stormalert&w=1
I knocked out the afternoon update a little early today since my program at Meadow View Elementary in Alabaster is at 1:30. be sure and look for those kids on the KIDCAM at 5:00 today on ABC 33/40 News.
I love J.B.'s "by the numbers" post every morning... I have always been a big "numbers" guy. Great stuff!
by James Spann
in General Thoughts
Tuesday Morning Numbers
January 31, 2006, 10:54 am
* 10 is the percentage of Earth's surface normally covered by glaciers and ice sheets
* 16 is the number of inches of snow in Salt Lake so far this season
* 21 inches is the shortfall in snow for Salt Lake this season
* 110 is the number of inches of snow at Alta, Utah this morning. (The high country has fared much better than the valleys.) Alta is a ski area.
* 298 is the number of inches of snow on the ground at Lightning Ridge, Utah
* 218 inches is the snowpack at Harts Pass, Wyoming
* 90 was hot hot it was yesterday at McAllen, Texas
* 2 below zero was the Lower 48 low this morning at Crane Lake and Orr, Minnesota
* 51 below was the coldest in Alaska in the last 24 hours at Fort Yukon
* 27 was one of the lowest temperatures in Alabama this morning at Florence and Anderson
OTHER ALABAMA LOWS
28 in Pinson and Madison
29 in Moulton, Athens and Alabaster*
30 in Fort Payne, Mentone, Gadsden, Leeds
31 at Anniston Airport
32 in Huntsville, Tuscaloosa, Cullman
33 in Birmingham and at Little River Canyon
34 in Montgomery and atop Mt. Cheaha
36 in Mobile and at Shelby County Airport
* Michael Mills, 3340 Weather Watcher for Alabaster, reports his 29 low ties the lowest so far which has now occurred 8 times
* 3 is the number of cups of coffee I have had this morning, way behind the curve. All decaf
* 16 is the number of inches of snow in Salt Lake so far this season
* 21 inches is the shortfall in snow for Salt Lake this season
* 110 is the number of inches of snow at Alta, Utah this morning. (The high country has fared much better than the valleys.) Alta is a ski area.
* 298 is the number of inches of snow on the ground at Lightning Ridge, Utah
* 218 inches is the snowpack at Harts Pass, Wyoming
* 90 was hot hot it was yesterday at McAllen, Texas
* 2 below zero was the Lower 48 low this morning at Crane Lake and Orr, Minnesota
* 51 below was the coldest in Alaska in the last 24 hours at Fort Yukon
* 27 was one of the lowest temperatures in Alabama this morning at Florence and Anderson
OTHER ALABAMA LOWS
28 in Pinson and Madison
29 in Moulton, Athens and Alabaster*
30 in Fort Payne, Mentone, Gadsden, Leeds
31 at Anniston Airport
32 in Huntsville, Tuscaloosa, Cullman
33 in Birmingham and at Little River Canyon
34 in Montgomery and atop Mt. Cheaha
36 in Mobile and at Shelby County Airport
* Michael Mills, 3340 Weather Watcher for Alabaster, reports his 29 low ties the lowest so far which has now occurred 8 times
* 3 is the number of cups of coffee I have had this morning, way behind the curve. All decaf
Interesting Setup At The End Of The Week
January 31, 2006, 6:59 am
The Tuesday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
On this last day of January 2006 we will enjoy a bright mid-winter day with ample sunshine and highs in the mid to upper 50s. Tomorrow stays dry, and a warming trend begins. We should be in the 60s tomorrow afternoon. But, be warned much colder air is poised to move in here over the coming weekend.
THURSDAY: A vort max coming out of Texas should bring a round of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. They might begin after midnight Wednesday night... for the moment it looks like the main window for rain will come from about 4:00 a.m. through 1:00 p.m. Thursday. Severe weather is not likely, and rainfall amounts around 1/2 inch seem like a good bet.
FRIDAY: The model run consistency is horrible on the development of this next feature. I think the stronger solution is correct you see on the 00Z GFS. A deep surface low moves from the piney woods of East Texas, to a point near Muscle Shoals, and on to Louisville. This would bring a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the Deep South, including Alabama, and SPC maintains a severe weather risk on their graphics as well.
The best time for thunderstorms seems to be from about 4:00 p.m. Friday through midnight Friday night. If we can get those high CAPE values in here, wind profiles would suggest a tornado threat will be possible.
A WEEKEND CHILL: Following the round of Friday night storms, much colder air rolls in here over the weekend. In our forecast package, I have a high of 43 on Saturday. It might be a setup where we begin in the upper 40s at daybreak Saturday, and drop to near 40 during the day. It all depends on the cold frontal passage timing; in the forecast I am assuming a frontal passage in the midnight to 3:00 a.m. time frame.
If we do have the deep surface low involved, clouds will be in place all day, and a few snow flurries will be possible over the northern third of Alabama.
By Sunday morning, with a clear sky, we should go well down in the 20s. I have 25 in our forecast package; colder spots should be closer to 20 degrees.
EARLY NEXT WEEK: An impulse will bring the risk of some light rain, mainly to the northern half of the state, on Monday. Doesn't look like a major system at all, and for the moment it looks warm enough for all liquid.
LONG RANGE: The maps still look very, very cold for the eastern one-half of the nation through much of February, generally speaking. Looks like the Arctic boundary might hover across the southern U.S., and if that thing gets wavy then look out for a winter storm threat or two. Stay tuned...
TODAY: I will be speaking to the kids at Meadow View Elementary school in Alabaster... and will be back in the office for the afternoon map discussion video which will be on the server by 3:30 p.m. It will be quite interesting to see how the 12Z model runs handle the Friday/Saturday system.
STORM ALERT 2006: We kick off the show Thursday night in Hamilton at Bevill State... we begin at 7:00 but you might want to show up at 6:00 to get a seat. The place will be packed. Hope to see you there!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
On this last day of January 2006 we will enjoy a bright mid-winter day with ample sunshine and highs in the mid to upper 50s. Tomorrow stays dry, and a warming trend begins. We should be in the 60s tomorrow afternoon. But, be warned much colder air is poised to move in here over the coming weekend.
THURSDAY: A vort max coming out of Texas should bring a round of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. They might begin after midnight Wednesday night... for the moment it looks like the main window for rain will come from about 4:00 a.m. through 1:00 p.m. Thursday. Severe weather is not likely, and rainfall amounts around 1/2 inch seem like a good bet.
FRIDAY: The model run consistency is horrible on the development of this next feature. I think the stronger solution is correct you see on the 00Z GFS. A deep surface low moves from the piney woods of East Texas, to a point near Muscle Shoals, and on to Louisville. This would bring a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the Deep South, including Alabama, and SPC maintains a severe weather risk on their graphics as well.
The best time for thunderstorms seems to be from about 4:00 p.m. Friday through midnight Friday night. If we can get those high CAPE values in here, wind profiles would suggest a tornado threat will be possible.
A WEEKEND CHILL: Following the round of Friday night storms, much colder air rolls in here over the weekend. In our forecast package, I have a high of 43 on Saturday. It might be a setup where we begin in the upper 40s at daybreak Saturday, and drop to near 40 during the day. It all depends on the cold frontal passage timing; in the forecast I am assuming a frontal passage in the midnight to 3:00 a.m. time frame.
If we do have the deep surface low involved, clouds will be in place all day, and a few snow flurries will be possible over the northern third of Alabama.
By Sunday morning, with a clear sky, we should go well down in the 20s. I have 25 in our forecast package; colder spots should be closer to 20 degrees.
EARLY NEXT WEEK: An impulse will bring the risk of some light rain, mainly to the northern half of the state, on Monday. Doesn't look like a major system at all, and for the moment it looks warm enough for all liquid.
LONG RANGE: The maps still look very, very cold for the eastern one-half of the nation through much of February, generally speaking. Looks like the Arctic boundary might hover across the southern U.S., and if that thing gets wavy then look out for a winter storm threat or two. Stay tuned...
TODAY: I will be speaking to the kids at Meadow View Elementary school in Alabaster... and will be back in the office for the afternoon map discussion video which will be on the server by 3:30 p.m. It will be quite interesting to see how the 12Z model runs handle the Friday/Saturday system.
STORM ALERT 2006: We kick off the show Thursday night in Hamilton at Bevill State... we begin at 7:00 but you might want to show up at 6:00 to get a seat. The place will be packed. Hope to see you there!
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