Today is the first day of June, and also the first day of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. Seems like everyone in the “hurricane outlook” business is expecting another busy year. The guys at NOAA say there is a 70 percent chance of an above-normal hurricane season this year, and they are expecting 12 to 15 tropical storms, with 7 to 9 becoming hurricanes and 3 to 5 major hurricanes. Their reasoning involves continued warm SSTs (sea surface temperatures) in the Atlantic basin, and expected ENSO-neutral conditions (no El Nino or La Nina) during August through October, the normal peak of the season.

Dr. William Gray and his team at Colorado State University are forecasting 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. His package includes a 77 percent chance of at least one major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coast. Breaking that down further, here are more probabilities for at least one major hurricane making landfall: The east coast of the U.S., including the Florida peninsula: 59 percent, the Gulf coast from the Florida panhandle to Brownsville, TX: 44 percent. Those numbers are higher than Dr. Gray’s previous forecast since he is now confident there will be no El Nino conditions across the tropics.

Also, the ole “global warming” debate is heating up as the season begins. One guy out at NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) is blaming the increased hurricane activity last year on “global warming”, while the guys at TPC (the Tropical Prediction Center) are poo-pooing all of that, saying that the large number of hurricanes was simply due to natural variability in tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin.

Lots of talk going on right now, it is all interesting but only time will tell what goes on in the tropical waters this season. It should be very interesting one way or another.

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If you like clouds and rain, you will like our forecast through tomorrow. Same routine, cloudy with periods of rain, and maybe a little thunder. The most widespread rain will be along and south of I-20 through this evening, but the entire pattern will shift north, and those of you north of Birmingham who have been short changed on rain over the past couple of days will have your turn tomorrow (hopefully). No severe weather, but additional rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible statewide through tomorrow night.

Models diverge a bit on Thursday. The WRF takes the surface low northeast, to South Carolina, on Thursday and tries to dry us out, while the NAM and GFS leave broad low pressure on top of us with rain still likely. We will side with the NAM and GFS since they have done a fairly decent job with this current pattern, and we will maintain a good chance of rain and storms on Thursday.

Friday should feature a little sunshine with showers becoming fewer in number and more scattered.

THE WEEKEND: The GFS shows a very soupy airmass in place, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70. Won't take much to squeeze out rain in that kind of pattern, especially with relatively cool air aloft for June. So, look for scattered to numerous showers and storms over the weekend, mostly during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs should be in the 80s, closer to normal levels for this time of the year.

DOWN THE ROAD: The 12Z run of the GFS introduces a strong trough over the eastern U.S. around June 12-14, and tries to drive a strong surface cold front through here, followed by dry air. Not sure I believe that, especially on one model run. We will watch for future trends.

Will make some notes on the coming hurricane season on my post here tonight... it begins tomorrow!

Have you had enough yet? Rain is still coming down across much of the state this morning, but the heaviest rain showing up on radar is now drifting north across Greene, Hale, Bibb, Chilton, Shelby, and Tallapoosa Counties. Rainfall rates of around 1/2 inch per hour have been estimated by radar in those areas since 10 AM.

The slow, steady rain will continue at times this afternoon. An upper air low just southeast of the Louisiana Gulf Coast will continue to send waves of energy north into a very moist air mass. The precipitable water measurement from this morning's Shelby County Airport upper air sounding is 1.74" That means if you squeezed out all of the water in the atmosphere from the ground up to about 45,000 feet it would accumulate to 1.74" on the ground. That won't happen, but it does tell us that there is a good supply of moisture for these little waves coming from the main low to work with. The bite of good news here is that the atmosphere is not particularly unstable today, so thunderstorms will not be a big worry! Look for mainly rain for most of the day!

The wet weather is going to be with us for two more days, but by Friday and Saturday we should start drying out some!

The Tuesday morning web video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

This would be a nice day to stay home and sleep, but unfortunately that doesn't work for most of us...

Radar shows a large area of mostly light rain and drizzle across north-central Alabama this morning, with some heavier rain near the Mississippi border as I type this at 5:30 a.m. With a stalled surface boundary to the south, broad low pressure on the front to the west, we will forecast a cloudy and wet day with periods of rain and maybe a little thunder. No severe weather; the air is way too stable. Some spots will have a hard time reaching the low 70s, much like yesterday, with clouds, rain, and a cool easterly flow on the north side of the front.

The broad low on the front should be somewhere near the Alabama/Mississippi border tomorrow, so the unsettled weather will continue with numerous showers and maybe a thunderstorm. By Thursday, the showers should become more scattered as heights begin to rise and the old front washes out. The latest model data looks fairly dry on Friday, but you can't eliminate a few scattered afternoon showers with ample moisture in place.

THE WEEKEND: Warm and muggy weather for Saturday and Sunday with afternoon temperatures getting back in the 70s. Lots of low level moisture, but not a well defined trigger for rain. So... it is the ole "scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms" kind of deal on both days. The GFS suggests the coverage of the showers will be higher on Sunday.

BEYOND SEVEN DAYS: I guess the theme with the GFS in the longer periods is that we will have a copious amount of low level moisture in place here, so it will be hard to find a day without showers through mid-June. Of course, the best chance of those showers or storms will come during the peak of the daytime heating process, but surface boundaries or waves aloft could enhance the rain at any time. This should keep the heat in check; temperatures should remain below normal.

HURRICANE SEASON BEGINS: Tomorrow is the first day of the 2005 hurricane season. The GFS is famous for spitting out bogus tropical systems, so we won't focus on those, but the GFS does show fairly favorable conditions for early season tropical development in the Gulf and Caribbean with high pressure aloft in place. I would not be shocked to see some "backyard" systems spin up over the next 30 days. Those typically don't develop into hurricanes, but early season tropical storms can produce some big time rain totals. We will keep a close eye on the Gulf and the Atlantic basin in general through the tropical season, which runs through the end of November.

The "Cape Verde" season comes in August, September, and early October, when waves emerging off the African coast can develop in the eastern Atlantic, then having days to grow stronger as they move in this general direction.

The first named storm of the season will be Arlene, the last names are Vince and Wilma.