Got an e-mail last night with this question from a viewer: “Are the winters warmer now? Because when I was a child around December it was cold. Then in January it always came some kind of snow. What happened? I think the bible says something about this or are we in some kind of crazy weather pattern?”

I actually hear this kind of question fairly often. My quick response is this: since 1979, when I started doing the weather on Birmingham television, every single year I have had at least one person tell me that they can “never remember the weather being this strange”. The simple truth is that our weather is “crazy” every year in some way.

And, for those who think winters are warmer now, the main problem is a short memory. For example, two of the warmest Januarys on record in Alabama were in 1949 and 1950, way before the “global warming” crowd was on the scene. Birmingham’s warmest January temperature is 81 degrees, recorded on January 10, 1949. Daily record highs have been recorded during the month of January in these years (among others): 1916, 1929, 1932, 1937, 1943, 1944, 1949, and 1950.

The question from the viewer had the assumption that the weather was always cold in December when that person was a child. Again, a quick scan of December records shows many very warm temperatures decades ago. Our warmest December temperature on record is 80 set in 1951. Birmingham is a low latitude city, and cold snaps are rarely severe, and rarely last long.

For cold weather fans, the season is just beginning. We will have plenty of cold snaps ahead, but if you like continuous cold and a big snow cover, you better head north!

The Wednesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Not much change in forecast thinking for the next five days...

A COLD CHANGE: A quick shot of cold air moves into the state tomorrow and Friday. Friday will be the coldest day with temperatures having a hard time reaching the low 40s. Lots of clouds, maybe a few sprinkles or flurries. A good chance we stay in the 30s much of the day.

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I have to interrupt this regular blog post for this thought.

Here is an excerpt from a post I made on this blog this past Saturday, December 31:

"I am sure this will generate some nasty e-mail, but I just can't see how we have highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s at the end of the week. Even my old nemesis, the GFS MOS, has a high of 39 degrees in Birmingham on Friday. I can't disagree with that. The cold will be especially stinging after the recent mild snap. For the 50s/30s lovers, hold off on the hate mail until a week from now... we will see who is right then!"

Funny how nobody in their right mind would now forecast highs in the 50s on Friday. I still don't understand the school of thought that you should always skew toward normal values in the day 4 to 7 segment of a public forecast. We rarely have "normal" weather around here!

Enough of a rant for now. Now, back to the regularly scheduled blog discussion for today

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Mid 20s by Saturday morning as the sky becomes clear.

A WARM CHANGE: The cold air leaves about as quickly as it arrives. We rise to near 50 on Saturday, and 60 on Sunday. No rain over the weekend as the air stays dry.

NEXT WEEK: The serious wave action remains to the north, but a weakening front could bring a few showers Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Another weak front could do the same Thursday of next week. We don't expect a big rain event here from either system with the main dynamics holding to the north.

LONG TERM: I don't trust the GFS at all in this difficult pattern in the longer range. You have to figure we will have a few quick shots of cold air at times over the next couple of weeks, but nothing lasting very long. And, nice periods of mild weather as well. Lots of fast changes. And, probably a surprise or two along the way.

Another late night ahead with the Rose Bowl. I don't think I have gotten 8 hours of sleep in the last four days combined. But once again, if the lack of sleep is all I have to gripe about, then I have no gripes!

The next map discussion video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow...

Ringgold is a small town on US-82 in North Texas east of Wichita Falls. When the town was laid out way back in 1892, lots were selling for $50 to $75. The population peaked at over 400 in its heyday, but it dropped off to 100 in the early 90s.

Ringgold fell victim to the recent vicious grass fires in North Texas and Oklahoma. Essentially, most of the town is gone. It is a sad story. Even some of the livestock was burned to death.

I feel connected to Ringgold and a lot of other towns on US-82 in North Texas. Such as Henrietta, Nocona, Bonham and Honey Grove. We traveled that way almost every year in the 60s and early 70s visiting family and relatives in Colorado, Arizona and Utah.

Seemed there were always gasoline wars underway on U.S 82. I remember filling our station wagon once with gasoline at 13.9 cents per gallon at an Esso Station. Lots of time you could buy it at 19.9 to 23.9. Those days are gone forever!

I well remember coming through Ringgold in the middle of the night once under a full moon. The little community seemed so peaceful. Later that same night, just before daybreak, we drove through Honey Grove. Not a soul was moving. A grain silo was backlighted by the full moon low in the western sky. Looked like a beautiful painting.

That scene has stuck in my memory forever.

Since December, those fires have burned about one-quarter million acres in New Mexico, Texas and Oklahoma destroying some 250 homes and killing 3 people.

Nothing compares to Small Town, USA, and it is so sad to see them suffer.

During football season, we usually post football weather for in state teams.

Seems that interest, hype and excitement is sky-high for the Texas vs. Southern California game tonight in the Rose Bowl. It starts at 5 pm, California time or 7 pm Alabama time and it is on ABC 33/40.

Here is the forecast for Pasadena:

Clear today and tonight. Breezy at times. High near 72. The temperatrure should be in the 60s for most of the game, possibly the upper 50s by the final whistle.

And, as James mentioned, hopefully it will not go into triple overtime. All of us are short on sleep.

The Wednesday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Anyone remember David Bowie?

"Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes
(turn and face the strain)
Ch-ch-changes
Don’t want to be a richer man
Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes
(turn and face the strain)
Ch-ch-changes
Just gonna have to be a different man
Time may change me
But I can’t trace time"

Change is the word for Alabama weather during the next two weeks.

TODAY: We reach the upper 60s today. Some high clouds, but lots of sunshine. Very nice spring-like day.

COLD SHOT: A major trough forms over the eastern U.S. by Friday. Cool air begins to arrive tomorrow as we struggle to reach the low to mid 50s. Then, even colder air rolls in here on Friday. We will be in the 30s much of the day, and there will be enough moisture for a few sprinkles or flurries. But, they they happen it won't be a big deal. The cold is the big story... we will go from highs near 80 on Monday to highs near 40 on Friday. With a clear sky, we should drop into the mid 20s by Saturday morning.

WEEKEND WARMUP: The cold air packs up and leaves in a hurry. We will be close to 50 Saturday afternoon, and the high will be near 60 on Sunday. The weekend will be dry.

NEXT WEEK: The main wave action will be up north for much of the week, but the GFS does hint at a surface front trying to move through here on Tuesday. Not sure the front will bring any rain at this point with the upper support up north.

LONGER RANGE: Still no sign of the NAO going negative, so cold air intrusions will continue to be temporary through at least the middle of the month. The 06Z run shows another cold air pop around January 13-14. In this very changeable pattern there is no real way you can trust model output out there in the longer ranges. Quick changes will be the story.

QUAKE: A 6.7 shaker this morning in the Gulf of California... no tsumani warnings or news of damage at this point. I would imagine this one might have been felt in far southern parts of Arizona or California. A 6.7 quake is considered "strong"... events over 7 are "major".

Well... I got home at 1:45 a.m. and the news on the miners up in West Virginia was great. I get a couple hours of sleep, and how things have changed. We still to be thankful for the one man who survived. That in itself is a miracle. But I cannot imagine the heartache.

Tonight will be our last sleepless night... the Rose Bowl will on ABC 33/40. Hopefully no triple overtime this time!

The afternoon map discussion will be on the server by 3:30....

The Orange Bowl has just ended after the third overtime... we are now past midnight. Anyone else awake?

How about those miners being found alive in West Virginia. God does indeed answer prayers. What a great story.

The 00Z model data has been in the house for quite a while... after a review I see no reason to change our ongoing forecast for the rest of the week and the weekend.

I will have the morning discussion and video ready within the next six hours.

Hey, if the lack of sleep is all I have to gripe about, then I have no problems at all. As J.B. Elliott says, life goes on, sleep or no sleep...