Voters trekked to the polls in great numbers to vote in the mayor’s race in Birmingham, despite a steady rain on this date in 1963. The heated mayoral race pitted attorney Albert Boutwell, Tom King, J.T. Waggoner and Commissioner Bull Conner. Cuba dominated the headlines, along with stories about Castro, reconnaissance flights over the island nation and the ill-fated Bay of Pigs invasion. I-59 was still proposed northeast of Roebuck to Argo. The Argo to Springville section was already complete. The winter had been a chilly one in the Magic City. So much so that the Weather Bureau reported that the winter of 1962-63 had been the coldest on record in Birmingham.

The afternoon edition of The Birmingham News warned that the city was under a storm alert until 8 p.m. The front page article reported that the U.S. Weather Bureau expected thunderstorms that were entering West Alabama to intensify and become severe. The piece went on to say that there was a risk of one or two tornadoes between 2 p.m. and 8 p.m. The AP Wirephoto on the weather page showed the culprit: a low pressure system over western Tennessee. From the low, a cold front trailed southward into eastern Texas. A warm front was moving northward over Alabama. It was a classic setup for severe weather. Headlines on the weather page told of a major snowstorm over the Rockies and the Midwest. Temperatures were in the muggy 70s.

About 3:35 p.m., a tornado sizzled down from a thundercloud near Bessemer. It moved northeast, remaining on the ground for fifteen miles, tearing through Homewood and into Mountain Brook. Bessemer was the hardest hit, with the worst damage along second and third avenues between 19th and 21st streets. Fortunately, the F3 tornado killed no one, but thirty five people were injured along its path.

Final notes from the campus of Mississippi State...

Alabama is playing MSU in basketball over at Humphrey Coliseum... but we are still talking weather here at the Southeast Severe Storms Symposium...

Jim Belles of the NWS Memphis is sharing a severe weather campaign they are using up there called "Timothy The Twister"... it is designed to reach kids with the severe weather message. Interesting stuff...

We will also have a program on SKYWARN, amateur radio, and the Automatic Position Reporting System (APRS)... being an amateur radio operator myself I am looking forward to that.

We will be at the Little Dooey this evening for the annual BBQ bash... then back home. I hope we get to Dooey before the basketball game is over.

I will post pictures from tonight's BBQ bash tomorow or early Monday as I have time. You can scroll down and see pictures from last night's eat-a-thon at Pap's Place.

Thanks to everyone here at MSU for the hospitality.... as always this weekend has been a treat!

Short notes on the afternoon session:

Dr. Harold Brooks of NSSL is speaking this afternoon on global severe thunderstorm activity...

Global reports are inadquate to see long term changes
Trends: U.S. severe weather environment is up

Brad Bryant from Jackson NWS is speaking... subject is the April 6, 2005 Mississippi tornado outbreak. Lasted longer than expected; fairly small impact area (basically Jackson CWA). Quite a tornado outbreak that day, but those severe storms didn't make it over into the I-65 corridor.

Jeff Craven presented a research project on various severe weather parameters here in the southern U.S... bottom line is that two great indicators of severe weather are Craven-Brooks significant severe weather parameters in excess of 20,000 (it shows up as 20 on the SPC meso page), and STP (strong tornado parameter) of over .25. Good parameters to check on severe weather threat days.

Jon Davis is speaking now...

Doing some case studies on tornadoes in the Great Plains and his associated chases in the region. Jon is one of the best severe weather metorologists in the nation. Great pictures and great presentation as always...

ON ANOTHER SUBJECT

The 12Z GFS is in and sure looks like a significant severe weather setup for Mississippi and western Tennessee. MAYBE Alabama as well... on Thursday of this coming week (Jan 9). Jeff Craven, who is sitting on the row in front of us, whispered back to us and told us to check out the GFS. He seems pretty pumped over the thing. Sure looks like an interesting week ahead.

More to come...

Justyn Jackson (MSU grad student going into operational meteorology) is presenting a paper now on thermodynamics associated with Southeast U.S. tornado events....

Coming up after the lunch break is Dr. Harold Brooks of NSSL (National Severe Storms Lab) with a "global view of severe thundderstorms" and "possible future changes". We will also be hearing from people like our friend Jeff Craven and Jon Davies.

From Justyn's paper:

Some parameters and how they relate to tornado types across the Deep South:

Mean surface based CAPE for certain tornado types in Dixie Alley

Non-tornadic supercells: 1078
F0-F1 tornadoes 1468
F2-F5 tornadoes 1593

Mean 0-3 km CAPE for tornado types in Dixie Alley

Non-tornadic supercaclls 64
F0-F1 tornadoes 61
F2-F5 tornadoes 70

(seems like 0-3 KM cape might not be a big help in forecasting tornado types)


Mean 0-1 km SRH for tornado types in Dixie Alley

Non-tornadic supercells: 70
F0-F1 142
F2-F5 240

(very helpful in forecasting tornado types)

Mean EHI for tornado types in Dixie Alley

Non-tornadic 0.53
F1-F2 1.24
F3-F5 2.16

(very helpful again in forecasting tornado types... might be the best parameter)

LCL heights were not really helpful in determining tornado type (despite perception it is)

LFC heights were also not helpful in determining tornado type

Bottom line here is that we need to pay more attention to the Energy-Helicity Index (EHI) on tornado days... EHI values over 2.00 could mean a real risk of strong/violent tornadoes. Good research!

Lunch break time... more posts this afternoon as we get rolling again.

Very interesting paper now being presented by Alan Gerard from NWS Jackson. I am not sure it is a good thing to brag on your tornado statistics, but this will be an eye opener for the national media that thinks the big tornadoes are exclusive to Oklahoma and Kansas.

These notes are being typed live as Alan speaks... will be in shotgun form.

Tornado Alley in this paper is defined from North Texas north through Kansas and Nebraska. Dixie Alley is Louisiana, Arkansas, Alabama, western two-thirds of Tennessee, and parts of Georgia. The "tornado alley" is larger in terms of geography, but the "Dixie alley" has more population density.

The perception is that just about all tornadoes happen in this area. Hard to find the origins of "Tornado Alley".

Research shows there are MANY different tornado alleys around the nation.

The term "Dixie Alley" has origins in outbreaks in 1952 (AR/TN - 204 deaths) and 1971 (Mississippi Delta - 121 deaths). Alan Pearson (director of SELS) did a paper using the term "Dixie Alley" after the 1971 MS Delta outbreak.

Which alley is under the gretest threat of tornadoes for the entire year?

DIXIE ALLEY> Tornados are spread out through the the entire year.

Data for this study is from 1950 to 2003 and is from the SPC "onetor" database, and focused on strong/violent tornadoes.

Tornado Alley has many more F0/F1 tornadoes, but the number of F3, F4, and F5 tornadoes is almost dead even.

Dixie Alley has far more tornadoes during the fall season of November and December.

Dixie Alley has far more killer tornadoes than tornado alley. This might have to with the higher population density. Many more people also live in mobile homes in Dixie Alley.

There are far more strong/violent tornadoes at all hours of the day across Dixie Alley, including the overnight and early morning hours. Most tornado alley tornadoes are in the late afternoon and evening hours.

Not much difference in path length between the two "alleys".

Total tornado fatalies during research term... 1900 in Dixie Alley, 1200 in Tornado Alley. Much higher number of deaths here. Once again, population density plays a factor. Funny how the nation media seems to ignore this.

Dixie Alley has not had a big March tornado outbreak in a long time. You have to consider we are overdue.

Survey of More Recent Stats

From 1998 through 2004 (post NWS modernization)

Dixie Alley ahd 1.5 times as many strong/violent tornadoes as Tornado Alley (338 vs 206). Tornado Alley had more tornadoes overall (2278 vs 1703)

Killer tornadoes much more prevalent in Dixie Alley.

The highest percentage over a three month period in Dixie Alley is March, April, and May. The highest percentage in Tornado Alley is April, May, and June.

Eight out of 12 months have at least five percent of the annual strong tornado days. Only five months in tornado alley.

Very interesting stuff and a great report by Alan.

MORE TO COME...

*12 is how many beautiful MSU coeds that have eyed Jason Simpson

*10 is the number of pounds of food that James Spann ingested at Pap's Place last night

*14 is how many pounds of weight we all gained last night

*5 is how many people that have tempted me with doughnuts, including one person, Jason Simpson, who threatened me.

*4 is the number of times I have yielded to the doughnut temptation.

*2 is the number of days delay in my schedule to lose 36 pounds in 2006.

*8 is the number of times that James Spann has photographed me in a compromising position (involving food

*0 is how much I know about the weather today (out of touch)

-J.B. Elliott

A paper is now being presented by Michael Scotten of the Birmingham NWS office on the November 28, 2005 tornado outbreak across Alabama. Six tornadoes were reported across Central Alabama with only minor damage.

This was a day with a moderate risk, and a day many believed would feature some long track tornadoes over much of Alabama (especially the northern half).

Why no long track tornadoes?

Weak instability and the lack of deep lift. No significant short wave or vorticity max nearby most likely prevented a widespread outbreak.

The cold front and the old outflow boundary served as the only boundaries to initiate tornadoes. Once each tornadic supercell moved off the boundaries, they weakened rapidly.

The best lift and strongest winds moved northeast and away from Alabama through the day.

More to come...

A big group from the Southeast Severe Storms Symposium drove down to Ackerman for a big feed last night at Pap's Place...


J.B. Elliott working the buffet line.


Jason Simpson digging in. Keep your arms and legs away from his mouth.


Our friend Josh Johnson from WTOK-TV in Meridian. No explanation needed.


Derek Kinkade from WMGT-TV in Macon, GA eats with a local catfish.


John Oldshue drinks a bottle of ketchup in only about 10 seconds. Strange, but true.


J.B. Elliott loves the ladies.


This was the crowd watching Oldshue suck down the bottle of ketchup. We are easily amused.


After three trips through the line, J.B. stopped. I am sure he could have gone through at least one or two more times.

Jason Beaman from NWS Memphis is speaking on mid-south (Memphis area) impact from Rita and Katrina...

Katrina tracked across the far SE part of the Memphis NWS CWA (county warning area)

7 hours of tropical storm force winds at Tupelo
Lowest pressure.... 980 mb at Tupelo
Rainfall 4 to 8 inches
Damage was mostly from trees falling on structures
100,000 plus customers without power
Flash flooding issues
Lowest pressure at Memphis was 989 mb

Rita tracked west of Memphis. Initial forecast ideas of Rita stalling did not happen.

Wind gusts were higher in Memphis from Rita. Gusts produced by convective bands with 50 to 55 dbz cores.
Upper circulation was strong; convection brought down the higher winds to the surface

Best heading of a tropical system for tornadoes is 010 to 040 degrees. This was the case with Rita

Most of the tornadoes from Rita were just west of the Memphis CWA (we all know where they were... 10 tornadoes in Tuscaloosa County September 25

A group from the University of Louisiana at Monroe is now doing a presentation on a project involving making remote measurements from the field during Katrina and Rita. Two meter towers were set up across South Louisiana for both storms.

More to come...

Up and running this morning from the Southeast Severe Storms Symposium on the campus of Mississippi State University.

I have some great pictures to post from last night's eat-a-thon at Pap's Place in Ackerman. Will try to have those up by midday today. Best home cooking buffet in the universe.

Enjoyed the broadcasters workshop yesterday; I spoke on how to survive as a broadcast meteorologist in a "new-media, post-broadcast world". J.B. Elliott also was on the docket with a great program on some retro-meteorology from the 1970s.

I will do a little "live blogging" today. Some great speakers are on the schedule with some very good information.

***Dan Byrd from the Jackson NWS office is up first this morning, doing a report on the "Hurricane Rita tornado outbreak" in September of last year. Interesing to note that tornado event was the largest in their CWA since good record keeping started in the 1950s.

The tornadoes developed in spiral bands around Rita in a low CAPE high shear environment. Most of the shear was from 0 to 1 km in the far lower part of the atmosphere.

Tornado warnings were in place for most of the significant tornadoes in the outbreak.

Jason Simpson brought in some doughnuts (there are none at the symposium this year)... J.B. Elliott just ate his first of the day. I expect him to eat many more.

***Alan Gerard, the meteorologist in charge of the NWS in Jackson is now speaking on Hurricane Katrina:

-26 to 28 foot surges along the MS coast... greater than Camille
-12 foot surge in Mobile Bay, near the record surge there
-Kartrina remained a category two hurricane with winds of 100 mph at Hattiesburg
-Hurricane force winds were measured well north of I-20
-Georgia had 17 tornadoes in an 8 hour period due to Kartrina.
-Misississipi experienced two F2 tornadoes from Katrina
-It was the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history, and costliest tropical cyclone ever
-Over 5 million people were without water
-97 percent of the Jackson, MS metro area had no power

Alan is sharing some amazing photos of damage from Katrina on the Mississippi Gulf coast.

Katrina is now the benchmark for central Gulf coast storms. Camille was NOT as bad as it could get.

Katrina was a wake up call that even with advance warning and prepareations massive fatalities can still occur with wewather events. Proabably NOT limited to hurricanes!

Next up is group from the NWS in Memphis on inland impact from Rita and Katrina... stay tuned...