The 2001 North Atlantic Hurricane Season wasted no time in getting started as Tropical Storm Allison formed quickly in an area of disturbed weather over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on just the fifth day of the season. Allison would make landfall near Houston with top winds near sixty mph, but the main impact from the storm would be heavy rains. The storm circulation would remain intact over land for nearly two weeks, dumping nearly thirty six inches of rain in parts of the Houston area and up to twenty five inches over parts of Southeast Louisiana. The 35.94 inches of rain that fell at Greens Bayou, near Houston, is the third highest rainfall total in U.S. history, behind the forty five inches that fell from 1979’s Tropical Storm Claudette and the forty inches that fell at Thrall, Texas in 1921. The 29.86 inches of rain that fell at Thibodeaux LA ranks as one of the top five storm total rainfalls in Louisiana history. Baton Rouge LA picked up 21.36 inches rain for the month, nearing breaking their all time June record.

Catastrophic flooding occurred in the Houston area. More flooding would occur from Georgia to Pennsylvania as the remnants of Allison slowly spun into the Mid Atlantic states. Twenty two people would die from the floods and some tornadoes in Texas and Louisiana and another nine in Florida with four storm-related deaths in Philadelphia. Allison would become the costliest Tropical Storm in United States history, with damages totalling near $2.5 billion.

Check out live television coverage from KFOR Oklahoma City of a tornado forming near Marlow OK:

www.kfor.com

Bill

A large multiple vortex tornado is on the ground in Oklahoma this evening east of Lawton, near Pumpkin Center. This storm will move northeast passing near Purcell or just south of Norman. This is a very dangerous storm.

My fantasy chase is taking me westward in Kansas toward the town of Eureka to intercept a TOR warned storm there. ETA to target 6:45 p.m.

Would have had no luck so far today. The first storm in Brown County KS produced a large tornado. The current storm in Oklahoma is producing a tornado. There have been several reports of tornadoes in Wisconsin and Nebraska. There is severe flooding reported at Junction City in Geary County KS.

Bill

Fantasy Storm Chase update 4:45 pm...from my arm chair in Birmingham...

Positioned near Delavan KS waiting on a storm coming up from the SW. This area features highest CAPEs, a dryline that is mixing east very rapidly and a 50 mph wind max at 500 mb. This storm has been organizing slowly.

Storm just to the NW of this one in Dickinson County KS has had a tornado warning on it, but has weakened a bit...

The first storm of the day in Brown County KS north of Topeka has been producing a large tornado for several minutes. It is east of Hiawatha KS at 445 pm. A large amount of debris was observed. I predict we will hear more about this tornado. It is about to move into Missouri...well north of Kansas City.

New tornado warning for Cotton County in SW OK. This is SE of Lawton. It will head toward Oklahoma City later.

Bill

4 pm update...

At 3:45 p.m., my fantasy storm chase would have taken me into Emporia, KS. A strong storm has developed rapidly in McPherson County KS, about 70 miles west of Emporia. This storm is already Tornado warned. It will move NE toward Salina and Abilene KS.

New development is occurring at 3:54 p.m. to the SW of Emporia. Those might become my target cells in my fantasy chase...

These southern storms will have a better chance of being low precipitation supercells, I think, making any tornadoes more visible. Over East Central Kansas, the level of free convection is 800-1000 meters, which is excellent for tornado development. The LFC is the level at which an updraft can rise unimpeded.

The latest ob from Emporia is 83/71 with a slightly backed SSE wind. This also indicates a little more low level shear. Still think more southerly storms will have good chance of producing tornadoes.

The initial storms north of Topeka is very organized, but does not have a Tornado Warning yet. All of the storms along the line are beginning to show signs of rotation.

Watching the weather from my armchair in Birmingham...

Plains Storm Chasing Update - 2:45 pm

As has been mentioned on the Blog this afternoon, an outbreak of severe thnderstorms and tornadoes is likely this afternoon and evening in the Central Plains, especially over eastern Kansas, where a high risk severe weather outlook is posted.

A new PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Tornado Watch has been issued for NW Missouri... extreme southern Iowa... SE Nebraska and much of NE Kansas. Another Tornado Watch is in effect for western Nebraska and watches will be coming soon for more of Kansas, much of Oklahoma and parts of Texas. Northern Oklahoma might be upgraded to a High Risk later.

I am fantasy chasing this afternoon since I am here in Alabama. My morning target was Topeka, Kansas. Chaser Martin Kuchera reports cells going up north of Topeka arond 1:30 p.m. You can see those on the KTWX (Topeka) radar. Those cells extend SW to south of Salina KS. This shoud be the focus area for development the next couple of hours.

Visible satellite photos are showing towering cumulus building along this line also. Surface based CAPEs are above 3000 j/kg over all of eastern Kansas, with an area over 4500 j/kg near Emporia. Lapse rates are increasing with the approach of an upper trough to the west. The cap is just about gone, which allow thunderstorms to explode shortly. There is still just a bit of cap over southern Kansas, that may lead to explosive development later. Same for SE Nebraska.

Chasers are all over the area, including Topeka, Emporia, in Wichita in Kansas and Ponca City OK.

Emporia looks good, but the Turnpike NE of there is not good for chasing because of a lack of exits. But because of the extreme instability in that area, my fantasy target would be Emporia, which I would be at by 3:45 p.m. My lair today would be bounded by I-45, I-70 and I-135, or Topeka, Wichita and Salina..

Let's see what happens.

Bill

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No, no, not for us. Alabama is not even under a "slight risk." In fact any showers and storms should be few and far between here today.

The "high risk" area includes:

SW Iowa
NW Missouri
East Central and NE Kansas
Extreme SE Nebraska

This includes the major cities of Omaha, Des Moines, Kansas City and Topeka.

A "moderate risk" area surrounds the "high risk" and that extends most of the reast of Iowa and north to Extreme South Minnesota and southward to include Wichita, Tulsa and Oklahoma City.

In these two areas there is the danger of a few powerful tornadoes that cause major damage and ones that hug the ground for many miles.

A "high risk" is rare...usually only a very few times each year. But it is another indication of the change in seasons. In a normal year, the greatest risk of severe weather by June shifts into the Northern Plains and Midwest, places like Nebraska, Iowa, the Dakotas and Minnesota.

So far in 2005, the number of tornadoes in the USA is down greatly and much lower than the average.

Video map discussion should be posted shortly. Morning clouds should give way to a warm and humid day today very much like yesterday. Most people in Alabama will be dry but there is still the outside possibility of an isolated shower or thundershower as we saw yesterday afternoon.

Rain chances will remain slight on Sunday but a short wave moving through the flow should help to enhance chances of showers on Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday into Friday we settle back into the summertime pattern of mainly afternoon and evening showers.

The GFS is forecasting a weak low in the Gulf by the end of the week. My confidence in that feature is not very high because the GFS has been advertising features resembling this for some time. Eventually the GFS will hit one correctly. Temperatures in the tropics are indeed warm but so far the upper level winds over the Caribbean have not been favorable. It will be interesting to watch this feature in future model runs.

After that feature goes by, we return to a summer-like pattern of afternoon showers. Average highs for central Alabama are now around 87/88 and I don't see much outside of cloud cover to give us any cool temperatures or especially hot temperatures.

Have a great weekend.

-Brian-

My favorite place in the world to vacation is the beach. With the days growing hotter here in Birmingham, I miss the sand, waves, and breezes even more! Since my mind is on the beach, I have chosen sea breezes and land breezes for today’s BLOG topic. Most people have felt these throughout their vacations or, perhaps, residence at the beach. In the summertime, they provide just enough speed to break the heat or cover you with sand. Although people experience these, the interesting science behind them is often overlooked.
The daytime, when beaches are more occupied, is when sea breezes occur. The rule that land heats up and cools down more quickly than water is an important meteorological idea. During the day, the land will heat up very quickly, while the water takes significantly longer. The warm land heats the air above it as does the water. The warmer air over the land creates a lower pressure (warm air rises) than the cooler air over the ocean. Therefore, wind is nature’s way of balancing the pressure by moving from higher pressure (the ocean) to lower pressure (the beach). This uneven heating creates the winds we feel on the shore.
A land breeze is the exact opposite of a sea breeze. After the sun goes down, the land cools off rapidly. However, the water slowly releases the heat from the day. This creates warmer air over the ocean and cooler over the land. This generates higher pressure over the land, compared with the ocean. In this situation, the wind compensates by blowing from the land to the ocean. This type of breeze might be less common to the public because fewer people are out on beaches at night.
Sea breezes and land breezes are two simple, yet interesting, meteorological concepts. They are examples of just one of the many ways unequal heating can effect weather. So, the next time you are tanning on the beach remember what causes the breeze you feel. I hope you have a safe and great weekend! -The Intern