The fourth tropical depression of the 2005 hurricane season has developed over the southeastern Caribbean Sea this evening. A Tropical Storm Watch may be required for portions of the south coast of Hispaniola by early Tuesday.

At 10 pm CDT, the center of TD 4 was located near latitude 12.5 N and longitude 63.1 W or about 100 miles west-northwest of Grenada. The depression was moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so.

Maximum sustained wind was near 30 mph with higher gusts. Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 24-hours, so TD 4 could become a tropical storm on Tuesday.

The latest computer models show a track that could bring this storm into the vicinity of the Florida Straits in 4 to 5 days, so this storm will bear watching for all interests along the Gulf of Mexico.

More information will be posted on this and the other tropical system so check back often.

As an interesting side note, should TD 3 become Cindy and should TD 4 become Dennis, this could be the earliest "D" storm ever. Bill Murray noted that the earliest "D" storm in his records was Danny, July 19, 1987. And since it is only July, those predictions of an active tropical season seem right on the money.

-Brian-

This evening Tropical Depression #3 was becoming better organized over the South-Central Gulf of Mexico. Here are some quick facts:

Location: Near latitude 23.3 N, longitude 89.5 W, 395 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Movement: It was moving NNW at 13 mph. Should continue that for the next 24 hours.
Maximum Wind: Sustained at 35 mph with higher gusts.
Lowest Pressure: 1009 MB or 29.80 inches

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
A Tropical Storm Watch continues for the Louisiana coast from the mouth of the Mississippi to Sabine Pass. This means that tropical storm conditions could occur there within 36 hours. That may be changed to a Tropical Storm Warning for part of the area by early Tuesday morning. Later tonight the depression could strengthen into a tropical storm. Reports from ships and floating data buoys located north and NE of the cneter show sustained winds between 33 and 38 mph, which is just below tropical storm strength.

Another advisory will be issued at 10:00 tonight and we will have an updated track forecast.

The weather sure has calmed down across Alabama early this evening. At 7:30, there were almost no thunderstorms in the state.

The strong storms that were over NE Alabama late this afternoon, causing some flash flooding and a bit of wind damage, have all migrated into Georgia.

Looks good for tonight's fireworks unless some storms form suddenly. We doubt that very much.

A few notes on what happened:

Late this afternoon in Etowah County four lanes of US-431 were closed in the Attalla for 45 minutes due to flooding. Well over 2 inches of rain fell in several parts of the Gadsden area.

Also in NE Alabama in Cherokee County, off US-411 5 miles west of the Georgia border, several trees were uprooted in a yard. One tree fell on a house, another one beside the house tearing down a power line. Still another falling tree drove a ladder through the windshield of a car. A shed was also torn down.

In extreme North Alabama earlier this afternoon, quarter-size hail was reported in the Anderson community in Lauderdale County. Quarter-size hail was also reported in the SE part of Huntsville in Madison County.

The ABC 33/40 WeatherNet site in downtown Gadsden reports 2.33 inches of rain in this afternoon's storm. We have another report of 2.41 inches across the street from Top Of the River Restaurant near Gadsden Mall.

NWS posted a Flash Flood Warning for Etowah County until 6:30.

NWS also reported some stalled cars in the area and a viaduct near Attalla flooded and impassable.

Lots of lightning in all of this.

At 5:45, the heaviest rain was shifting east of downtown Gadsden into East Etowah County and South DeKalb County.

The bad boys have shifted into NE Alabama.

Just before 5 o'clock, very heavy rain and storms continued from the Guntersville-Boaz area down to Gadsden and Rainbow City. Looks like Rainbow City getting more heavy rain after getting 2.20 inches earlier this afternoon.

Scattered thunderstorms further south over Central and South Alabama but thinning in number.

Looking encouraging for tonight's fireworks...most of which start around 9.

In the official 4:00 p.m. advisory, the National Hurricane Center did not upgrade TD #3 to a tropical storm status, so it is still not known as Cindy.

The tropical depression is trying to reform over the south Gulf of Mexico north of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical Storm Watch now posted for the Louisiana coast from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Sabine Pass. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in about 36 hours.

QUICK BASIC DATA:
4:00 p.m. Position: Latitude 22.8 N, Longitude 89.2 W, about 435 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Movement: Toward the NNW at 12 mph. That should continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 mph
Central Pressure: 10.10 MB or 29.83 inches
Next Advisory at 7:00 p.m.

We will have other notes on the blog before then.

Great variation between models on the future track. Will discuss that later.

Also, please scan down to an earlier discussion by James Spann.

And this link:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.hrb

It has complete information including a track forecast map.

The Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Shelby County was cancelled about 3:35 pm, some 10 minutes before expiration. Storms weakened.

Thunderstorms still fairly numerous.

A Severe Thunderstorm Warning now for Cherokee County in NE Alabama until 4:15 pm.

It is pouring over parts of Franklin and Lawrence County in NW Alabama.

Blount County also getting a lot of rain.

Earlier, thunderstorms dumped 2.20 inches of rain at Rainbow City south of Gadsden in a relatively short time.

Lightning is prominent in all the storms. It is a special concern on a holiday like today when so many people are outside and on lakes and rivers, etc.

Please be careful.

The Monday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Lots happening in the office here this afternoon... J.B. Elliott will handle the short term thunderstorm issues here on the blog... I will be going updates on ABC 33/40 (just finished one at 3:00).

TROPICAL ISSUES: Still no vortex message from the Hurricane Hunter headed to TD3 in the southern Gulf... sure looks good on the satellite presentation and I expect this to be tropical storm Cindy sooner than later. A new center seemingly has rerformed to the north of the original center.

The NHC track from late this morning is now an outlier; the models are more to the east, with landfall anywhere from Morgan City to Pensacola. The GFDL puts Cindy into the central Louisiana coast as a minimal hurricane. But, other models are not nearly as agressive on strengthening.

I am sure NHC will pull their track to the east on the next advisory package, due in an hour or so.

Models are in better agreement about landfall, but still lack consistency in what happens after landfall. The GFDL puts the center of Cindy over Lamar county Alabama Friday... if that is the case Friday here will be windy and wet. But, the GFS and the NAM still really don't develop the system. The GFS does feed very deep moisture in here from the system over the next two days, and I do expect scattered to numerous showers and storms both tomorrow and Wednesday.

Quite frankly the forecast for Thursday and Friday is a guessing game now; I think the best moisture will be east of here by Friday, and Friday and much of the coming weekend could be relatively dry.

DENNIS?: The other system over the Caribbean should become tropical storm Dennis soon. All of the models point this one toward the southern tip of Florida this weekend. The GFS takes it into the eastern Gulf, with another landfall near Panama City early next week, with copious amounts of tropical moisture over far east Alabama and Georgia. Most of the models want to develop this into a significant tropical system, perhaps a hurricane.

Please watch the video today for details on all of this... have to get back to radar duty. Will plan another live update on ABC 33/40 around 4:00 if these storms maintain their intensity...

The potential severe thunderstorms moving eastward from Bibb County into Shelby County.

NWS now has a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Shelby County until 3:45. Storms may produce winds over 60 mph.

Communities affected include:

Pelham
Montevallo
Helena
Columbiana
Alabaster
Wilsonville
Chelsea
Oak Mountain State Park

Much, much lightning with these storms

The Severe Thunderstorm Warning is for Bibb County in Central Alabama until 3:15 pm.

Among other communities, this warning also affects Brent, Centreville and West Blocton.

The storms were moving NE at 25 mph and are strong enough to produce gusts in excess of 60 mph.

Lightning is not a criteria for Severe Thunderstorm Warnings but it can be the most dangerous element. Plenty of that out there this afternoon.