I was on vacation during the last 9 days of 2004, so I figure I would take this space today and look back at some final statistics for last year. Birmingham’s hottest temperature was 95 degrees, measured on July 14 and July 24. The coldest was 15 degrees back on the seventh of January. For the entire year, the average temperature was 64.5 degrees, 1.6 degrees above normal.
No doubt 2004 was a wet year. The wettest day was when Hurricane Ivan blew through on September 16. The Birmingham Airport measured a whopping 9.75” thanks to the tropical system with widespread flash flooding. But, the wettest month was November, when a total of 11.13” was measured. The total for the year was 61.25”, which is over seven inches above normal.
Concerning severe weather, tornadoes were seen on only five days in 2004. However, there were 34 days with thunderstorms that featured damaging winds and 14 days with flash floods. Most of the severe weather came during the fall season in November and early December; the spring was relatively quiet. The most active tornado day was on the day before Thanksgiving, November 24, when 16 tornadoes touched down across central Alabama during the early morning hours. One person was killed in Bynum when a tree fell onto a home.
The summer was seasonably warm with no extended of severe heat waves. Montgomery did reach 100 degrees on July 24 and August 4, but those observations have been questionable due to a warm bias on that Montgomery thermometer during the year. In Birmingham, the mercury reached or exceeded 90 degrees on 32 days during the summer.
On the other hand, the mercury dropped to 32 degrees or colder on 44 days in 2004.
2004 In Review
January 5, 2005, 9:42 pmWatching The Cold Air
January 5, 2005, 3:17 pm
The afternoon video is posted and ready for viewing:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Very difficult temperature forecast tomorrow. By midday Muscle Shoals could be in the 30s, the Birmingham metro in the 46 to 52 range, and Clanton closer to 60. Not a "one number" day.
Look at the contrast on the front today... at 2:00 Shreveport had 73, while Oklahoma City reported 21. A 52 degree swing on either side of the front over a relatively small distance!
Models also strongly showing a wave on the front which will enhance the rain by Friday afternoon. You have to wonder if this might mean some icing up in Arkansas or Tennessee. Just not cold enough down here, however.
We warm up again this weekend, and could see low 70s by the first part of next week.
BUT.... the 12Z is back on the "Polar Express" kick for Alabama in about nine to ten days. I have to think this is the correct solution; I would plan on a sharp change to much colder weather in the January 14 to 17 time frame. With the vast snow cover over the nation, I have to wonder if this will get some of the colder spots in north Alabama in the single digits for the first time this year.
No hard evidence of freezing rain with the cold air blast, but we will see many different model looks as the change approaches. We have to keep that open as a possibility; shallow cold air with a southwest flow aloft.
**On another note... great job by our new man Jason Simpson this morning. The kid from Holly Pond is a real winner. Jason is the new weekday morning meteorologist; if you missed him today watch Good Morning Alabama tomorrow.
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Very difficult temperature forecast tomorrow. By midday Muscle Shoals could be in the 30s, the Birmingham metro in the 46 to 52 range, and Clanton closer to 60. Not a "one number" day.
Look at the contrast on the front today... at 2:00 Shreveport had 73, while Oklahoma City reported 21. A 52 degree swing on either side of the front over a relatively small distance!
Models also strongly showing a wave on the front which will enhance the rain by Friday afternoon. You have to wonder if this might mean some icing up in Arkansas or Tennessee. Just not cold enough down here, however.
We warm up again this weekend, and could see low 70s by the first part of next week.
BUT.... the 12Z is back on the "Polar Express" kick for Alabama in about nine to ten days. I have to think this is the correct solution; I would plan on a sharp change to much colder weather in the January 14 to 17 time frame. With the vast snow cover over the nation, I have to wonder if this will get some of the colder spots in north Alabama in the single digits for the first time this year.
No hard evidence of freezing rain with the cold air blast, but we will see many different model looks as the change approaches. We have to keep that open as a possibility; shallow cold air with a southwest flow aloft.
**On another note... great job by our new man Jason Simpson this morning. The kid from Holly Pond is a real winner. Jason is the new weekday morning meteorologist; if you missed him today watch Good Morning Alabama tomorrow.
Too COLD For a Picnic!
January 5, 2005, 11:00 am
Sure glad football season is finally over. I need more sleep. I will probably not watch another football game until next September. Some weather notes from all over--enough going on to please almost any avid weather fan. Updated at 10:45 AM.
+ If the 12Z ETA and GFS is correct, placing the cold front in SE Alabama by mid-day tomorrow, our temperature around BHM could settle down around 46 for much of the day.
+ Just as we suspected, the temperature dropped to a bitter 43 below zero in Embarrass, Minnesota this morning. That's not a wind chill, it's the actual temperature. Hallock, Minnesota had -36 with a wind chill of -57! Also a -57 wind chill in Grand Forks, North Dakota.
+ At Arlington Airport, Fort Worth-Dallas area, the temperature dropped 18 degrees in one hour this morning.
+ Watching very closely the frontal zone the last few days. Big dropoff in temperature not far behind the front. This morning it is in the mid 60s in Central Arkansas, but less than 100 miles away, in NW Arkansas, it is 37. This means that when the front reaches Central Alabama, our high temperature may be forecast via the ole coin-flip method.
+ Anxious to see the low temperature report from Tower and Embarrass, Minnesota later this morning. I feel sure we will see about -42! Bitter cold. These lows reported so far:
39 below zero in Grand Forks, North Dakota
37 below in Williston, North Dakota
36 beow in Baudetts, Minnesota
37 below in Wolf Point (out on the open plains of NE Montana)
+ 23.5 inches of snow on the ground at Flagstaff, Arizona
+ At least two tornado warnings issued by NWS, Phoenix. Air Force forecasters at Luke AFB (in the Phoenix area) spotted a funnel cloud in the immediate vicinity of the base just as 1/2 inch hail began to fall.
+ Peoria, Arizona (same general area) had 3/4 size hail that accumulated two inches deep. Hail also two inches deep in the NW part of Phoenix with a rotating wall cloud seen.
+ Ron Morgan, one of our ABC 33/40 E-Forecast subscribers who lives in the Phoenix area, reports that "this old desert can't take much more water and that some of the 100+ year old cactus are falling over because the ground is so saturated. The Salt River is running and looks like a real river!"
+ If the 12Z ETA and GFS is correct, placing the cold front in SE Alabama by mid-day tomorrow, our temperature around BHM could settle down around 46 for much of the day.
+ Just as we suspected, the temperature dropped to a bitter 43 below zero in Embarrass, Minnesota this morning. That's not a wind chill, it's the actual temperature. Hallock, Minnesota had -36 with a wind chill of -57! Also a -57 wind chill in Grand Forks, North Dakota.
+ At Arlington Airport, Fort Worth-Dallas area, the temperature dropped 18 degrees in one hour this morning.
+ Watching very closely the frontal zone the last few days. Big dropoff in temperature not far behind the front. This morning it is in the mid 60s in Central Arkansas, but less than 100 miles away, in NW Arkansas, it is 37. This means that when the front reaches Central Alabama, our high temperature may be forecast via the ole coin-flip method.
+ Anxious to see the low temperature report from Tower and Embarrass, Minnesota later this morning. I feel sure we will see about -42! Bitter cold. These lows reported so far:
39 below zero in Grand Forks, North Dakota
37 below in Williston, North Dakota
36 beow in Baudetts, Minnesota
37 below in Wolf Point (out on the open plains of NE Montana)
+ 23.5 inches of snow on the ground at Flagstaff, Arizona
+ At least two tornado warnings issued by NWS, Phoenix. Air Force forecasters at Luke AFB (in the Phoenix area) spotted a funnel cloud in the immediate vicinity of the base just as 1/2 inch hail began to fall.
+ Peoria, Arizona (same general area) had 3/4 size hail that accumulated two inches deep. Hail also two inches deep in the NW part of Phoenix with a rotating wall cloud seen.
+ Ron Morgan, one of our ABC 33/40 E-Forecast subscribers who lives in the Phoenix area, reports that "this old desert can't take much more water and that some of the 100+ year old cactus are falling over because the ground is so saturated. The Salt River is running and looks like a real river!"
Brutal Cold
January 5, 2005, 5:50 am
Morning video update is ready and on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Check out the observations up north this morning; -36 at Williston, North Dakota and -36 at Wolf Point, Montana at 5:00 a.m. Records are being blown away up there; for some places this is the coldest air they have seen in a number of years.
And, the big storm coming out across the plains is putting down a huge snow cover over much of the central and northern U.S. You can help but think when the "dam breaks" and the pattern changes, we will really go into the deep freeze here. But, it won't happen until at least 10 days from now.
Very difficult temperature forecast for tomorrow as the leading edge of the cold air tries to slip in here. Muscle Shoals could drop into the upper 30s during the day, with 40s north of Birmingham. The mercury should drop to near 50 along I-20 during the day. A few showers are likely, but I don't expect rain to be all that heavy.
We warm right back up this weekend and next week as heights rise.
06Z GFS says no cold air in the January 15-20 time frame, but I still have concern it is wrong. I would not be shocked if much colder air slips in here at some point in that time frame, but a very shallow layer with warmer air on top of it. We will keep waiting and watching.
We just about have the Storm Alert 2005 tour schedule ready to post; hopefully I will have it on here later today or tomorrow. Looks like a very, very good show this year. My man Bill Castle is hard at work on it now.
**Lots of e-mail this morning about a big front page article in the Birmingham News trying to suggest some "storm of the century" next week. I think it is an AP article... not from anyone local. I have no idea what that is about... next week should not be nearly as stormy as this week, although more snow and cold is likely up north.
**Just read the front page article... I still don't understand. Seems like it should have been written one week ago! The big storm is going on right now... next week will be a little calmer. Still cold and unsettled for much of the nation next week, but no historic storms.
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Check out the observations up north this morning; -36 at Williston, North Dakota and -36 at Wolf Point, Montana at 5:00 a.m. Records are being blown away up there; for some places this is the coldest air they have seen in a number of years.
And, the big storm coming out across the plains is putting down a huge snow cover over much of the central and northern U.S. You can help but think when the "dam breaks" and the pattern changes, we will really go into the deep freeze here. But, it won't happen until at least 10 days from now.
Very difficult temperature forecast for tomorrow as the leading edge of the cold air tries to slip in here. Muscle Shoals could drop into the upper 30s during the day, with 40s north of Birmingham. The mercury should drop to near 50 along I-20 during the day. A few showers are likely, but I don't expect rain to be all that heavy.
We warm right back up this weekend and next week as heights rise.
06Z GFS says no cold air in the January 15-20 time frame, but I still have concern it is wrong. I would not be shocked if much colder air slips in here at some point in that time frame, but a very shallow layer with warmer air on top of it. We will keep waiting and watching.
We just about have the Storm Alert 2005 tour schedule ready to post; hopefully I will have it on here later today or tomorrow. Looks like a very, very good show this year. My man Bill Castle is hard at work on it now.
**Lots of e-mail this morning about a big front page article in the Birmingham News trying to suggest some "storm of the century" next week. I think it is an AP article... not from anyone local. I have no idea what that is about... next week should not be nearly as stormy as this week, although more snow and cold is likely up north.
**Just read the front page article... I still don't understand. Seems like it should have been written one week ago! The big storm is going on right now... next week will be a little calmer. Still cold and unsettled for much of the nation next week, but no historic storms.
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