Things are beginning to move fast.

Faster than we expected.

At 10:45 pm, ABC 33/40 Doppler radar indicated precipitation in West Alabama as far east as Jasper, Tuscaloosa, Moundville and Demopolis. It is moving steadily eastward. At this rate, we should see some type of precipitation in Birmingham before midnight.

A report from the public indicated heavy sleet in Fayette at 10:19 pm

A cold rain has been reported in Tuscaloosa.

Some reports:

34 degrees in Huntsville
30 in Cullman, Oxford, Pell City
28 in Fort payne
34 in Birmingham
31 in Anniston
41 in Columbus, Miss.
40 in Tuscaloosa
36 in Fayette with sleet
35 in Eva (Cullman County)
27.5 in Trussville (intersection of 25th Ave., and Sweeny Hollow Road)

An area of precipitation continues to develop over North Mississippi. This has happened rather quickly over the last hour or so.

All of it is not reaching the ground. However, light rain was reported in Starkville just before 10 pm.

Not too far away, the 9 pm temperature in Columbus was 39 with a dew point of 25.

The NWS has just received reports of a mix of light rain/snow/sleet in the west part of Lamar County and Marion County in West Alabama.

Over in East Alabama, we also have a report of a 25-degree temperature and dew point 18 near Hollis Crossroads, in Cleburne County.

MORE LATE REPORTS
3340 viewer reports mix of sleet and snow in Winfield soon after 10 pm
Another viewer reports that it is "sleeting pretty hard" 4 miles south of Hamilton

Precipitation is now spreading into Alabama faster than we were expecting...

We are aware of the slow response of the blog tonight... we are working on the issue. A ton of traffic on here. I thought everyone was watching the Super Bowl.

The 00Z NAM is coming in and is a tad warmer and slower with the system tomorrow.

However, surface temperatures are considerably colder than the NAM output for right now. Some spots are now below freezing. BUT, it is important to understand looking at your back yard thermometer is not the way to determine precipitation type.

One good level to watch is around 5,000 feet, or where the pressure is around 850 millibars. That is why we often discuss the temperature at 850 mb in our discussions.

I show the current 850 mb temp at Birmingham as 3.8 (C), or 38 degrees (F). Snow flakes will mostly melt in this layer in the current state of the atmosphere.

BUT, that layer is very dry... the dewpoint at 850 mb is -31.6 (C). So, evaporational cooling should come into play early tomorrow morning, which could pull those 850 mb temps down a bit.

BOTTOM LINE

I still don't see any real need to change our original thought from this morning. Best chance of any snow accumulation will be north of a line from Hamilton to Oneonta to Jacksonville to Heflin. One to two inches possible there, mostly on grass. Roads should be mostly wet due to the warm ground. The main travel issue will be ice on bridges where surface temperatures are below freezing.

For the Birmingham metro... some snow flakes are possible, but for the moment major travel problems don't look likely. A cold rain will fall much of the day. In fact, the new NAM ramps up the precipitation totals here to 0.77".

NOTES:

The weather will get very cold later in the week. I know lots of folks are going with the usual "highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s". That is insane.. .we will be lucky to see 35 on Thursday based on the new NAM.

And, there will be more winter weather issues in the days ahead. So, for the snow fans, if you don't get what you want tomorrow, you day might be coming before too long. Stay tuned.

J.B. will have the midnight oil going here; my next post will be up by 6:00 a.m.....

The surface low pressure area is now further over into NE Texas. A low will move east across Southb Alabama Monday spreading moisture northward into the colder air over Alabama.

Just before 9 pm, there was no precipitation in Alabama, Mississippi or louisiana. However, none was expected in those areas this early.

Here in Central Alabama, the precipitation will be very late arriving...possibly as late as daybreak.

Some of the latest model runs are trying to warm it up a bit.

Situation across the Tuscaloosa-Birmingham area will be marginal. Further north and east, there is a better chance of snow accumulation. However, not a major amount.

Temperature have dropped to freezing or lower over parts of the area. Some 8 o'clock temperatures:

33 in Saginaw with a dew point of 22 (John Oldshue)
30.5 in Trussville
30 in Cullman and Fort payne
33 in Anniston
35 at Birmingham Airport
36 in Tuscaloosa
34 in Huntsville

The surface low pressure area early tonight was centered near Wichita Falls, Tex., near the Texas-Oklahoma border.

A low pressure area will move east crossing south Alabama Monday, An upper level trough will also be involved.

At 6:40 pm, there was no precipitation in Alabama, Mississippi or Louisiana. There was a patch of light precipitation over Extreme West Tennessee but it was probably not reaching the ground.

Here in Central Alabama, nothing is expected until very late tonight...after midnight at the earliest.

A few 6 pm temperatures:

42 in Birmingham
39 in Anniston
44 in Tuscaloosa
36 in Gadsden
34 in Fort Payne
38 in Huntsville

After a review of the 12Z data set... I don't see much need to change our forecast at this point...

A chance of one to two inches of snow north of a line from Hamilton to Oneonta to Jacksonville to Heflin.

Having said that, here is the snow accumulation graphic from the 12Z NAM:



Will we have to go to school tomorrow? There is a chance some systems will consider calling off classes for the day, but the best chance of that will probably be in counties like Cullman, Blount, Etowah, Cherokee, and DeKalb (among others to the north of Birmingham).

As always, this is a close call. It certainly won't be a major, long term snow event. Most roads will only be wet where snow falls, but some bridges will become icy where surface temperatures drop to freezing.

I still think there will be significantly better opportunities for snow in the next two weeks. The pattern looks cold and unsettled, and the GFS looks way too warm in the longer range MOS as usual. I will be much more specific on these threats early tomorrow morning with my Monday morning video and discussion, which will be posted by 6:00 a.m.

As we enjoy the Super Bowl we will post updates on the situation for tomorrow morning, so stay tuned!

The low pressure area that we want to watch was along the Texas-Oklahoma border at mid-afternoon.

This low will slide toward the ESE and maybe form more southward. It should move eastward across South Alabama overnight.

With cold air north of the low, the northern part of the state is subject to getting some snow.

At 3 pm, there was no precipitation across Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi or Alabama. It will develop later.

Here in Central Alabama, the precipitation will hold off until after midnight.

We will be here for the duration...including all night tonight for frequent updates.

Meanwhile: check the new 7-day discussion by Bill Murray here:

http://www.abc3340.com/weather/7day.html

Also check posts by James this morning and the video discussion by Brian this morning. James will probably post at other times through the event also.

For your information...our entire weather group is hooked into an instant network and we are all discussing the situation, exchanging ideas, you name it.

The Sunday map discussion video is on the server at:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

People awakening to a sunny but crisp Sunday morning across Central Alabama. I recorded a low of 28 degrees on my station in Helena this morning, so going to have to bundle up to run out to pick up the newspaper! My dog will probably wait faithfully on the front porch and watch me run to the edge of the street. She's just no help when it comes to fetching.

The BIG news continues to be the forecast for winter weather across northern Alabama on Monday. GFS and NAM models in reasonably good agreement developing a weak low over southern Mississippi and then tracking it quicking eastward. Main area for snow appears to run from about Hamilton to Oneonta to Jacksonville to near Heflin as James pointed out in his post below. This could change slightly as the impact of winter storms depends highly on the exact track of the storm center. Also winter weather is often limited to very narrow bands of snow which are difficult to specify with any degree of accuracy even just hours in advance. One to two inches is still looking possible, and the National Weather Service offices in Birmingham and Huntsville have issued snow advisories for Monday.

Two factors which should be good for us - first, the system moves through quickly and does not linger so we should see a quick shot of winter precipitation which will help to keep amounts low. Second the ground is reasonably warm after one of the warmest Januarys in recent years. Still with the cold air over the last day or so we could see some travel concerns with bridges and overpasses as the weather develops.

Weather improves through mid-week as we dry out but stay seasonably cool. Another disturbance toward the end of the week with a large 1044 millibar high over western Canada promises to bring some Arctic air and the potential for another round of winter weather. But that's much too far out to get specific about just yet.

Hope you enjoy a mostly sunny but crisp Sunday. Be weather-wise as we continue to monitor developments on Monday.

-Brian-

After reviewing the 00z and 06Z model data set, it still looks like there is a chance of some accumulating snow over parts of North Alabama tomorrow morning.

The key to the entire event is the degree of evaporative cooling. With dewpoints in the low 20s at the onset of the precipitation, it does look like the lower column of the atmosphere will ultimately be cold enough for some snow. Current observations show actual dewpoints in the 17 to 22 range right now.

Having said that, the 06Z models have come in a little warmer for the I-20 corridor.

The 06Z NAM shows 0.30" of liquid for Birmingham from about 4:00 a.m. through 12:00 noon tomorrow. IF that comes down as snow, the standard conversion could mean about 3 inches of snow. But, the parameters look a little warm for snow in Birmingham on this run.

Here are some values at mid-morning, when much of the precipitation will fall:

2M temp: 34.6
1000-500 mb thickness: 5445 meters
1000-850 mb thickness: 1309 meters
850 mb temp: 3.0 (C)
950 mb temp: 0.0 (C)

Yesterday's 12Z NAM run had Birmingham's 850 mb temp (about 5,000 feet) colder than -3 (C). That is a significant warm-up on this run.

The surface low position on both models generally runs from Mobile to Dothan during the day.

Here is the bottom line:

I think there is a chance of one to two inches of snow along and north of a line from Hamilton to Oneonta to Jacksonville to Heflin.

Keep in mind the ground is still relatively warm from the recent mild weather, and many roads will simply be wet. However, as always in Northeast Alabama there will be some cold pockets where temperatures will be a little below freezing, and some bridges could be pretty slick early tomorrow morning.

For Tuscaloosa/Birmingham/Anniston, some snow flakes are certainly possible, but for the moment the thickness values really don't support a big snow event. Could very well be mostly rain, with temperatures in the mid 30s.

IMPORTANT POINTS:

*We really don't have any TRUE Arctic air in here yet... this is modified Polar air. The really cold air won't get in here until late in the week. For snow fans, I think there will more opportunities for snow when we do indeed get really cold. The 06Z GFS paints a snow threat right now over the coming weekend over the northern half of Alabama (on Saturday). This is a cold and unsettled pattern setting up for the next few weeks.

*Snow forecasting in Alabama is difficult; trying to define a rain-snow line, and a line where accumulation will begin, is very difficult in a system like this. This forecast could change later today as the new 12z model data rolls in and the system actually begins to take shape this evening to the west.

Brian Peters will be along a little later this morning with his discussion and a map discussion video update.

I will be headed to Hunter Street as usual shortly to teach in our Outfitters 2:52 children's worship services... Then I will be back in the saddle and post some updates here through the afternoon and tonight on forecast ideas.

Stay tuned..