The Tuesday afternoon web video is on the server and ready for viewing:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Thanks to the second graders over at Briarwood Christian... I sure enjoyed the visit today!

SPC has upgraded south Alabama to a moderate risk tomorrow, while the rest of the state remains under a slight risk of severe thunderstorms.

Looks like the main batch of storms will roll in here sometime in the 3:00 to 9:00 p.m. time frame, with the primary threat coming from damaging straight line winds and hail.

Instability values are fairly high on the WRF (SBCAPE 1500 or so over west Alabama), but moderate on the NAM (closer to 500). We do note both the WRF and the NAM show high 0 to 3 km helicity values (350 or higher) around 6:00 p.m. tomorrow.

I am still underimpressed with the wind fields; the 850 mb winds (about 5000 feet) are only expected to be in the 25 to 35 kt range, while the 250 mb winds (jet stream level) are all under 100 knots. If the winds at all levels are higher than the models suggest, the severe weather threat will be higher.

New 12Z model data still suggests some pretty decent rain totals tomorrow and tomorrow night; the NAM shows 1.27" while the GFS has 1.32" (pretty good agreement. I don't think that will be enough for major flooding problems in this part of the state, but our pals down in Montgomery could have a more significant flood threat.

We will maintain the chance of scattered showers and storms on Thursday as the cold pocket aloft passes over north Alabama; there could be a few showers or storms with hail. Gradual clearing is likely by late Friday, and the weekend ahead looks rain-free.

Here is a note from the Birmingham NWS office on their thinking on tomorrow's event:

"Wanted to give everyone a heads up. This event is looking like the past several events. Isolated stuff ahead of the line in the morning after daybreak. The line arriving in W. AL around late morning / noonish...which will allow for excellent peak heating for central and eastern AL. South end of the line may stall out and start to train tomorrow evening. Potential flash flooding is a major concern again...especially the I-85 corridor. Going with the standard verbage...Large hail, straight line winds, and isolated tornadoes. Main area of concern for SVR wx is ROUGHLY the 20/59 corridor and southward."

We pretty much agree with that as well.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS continue to flip-flop on next week's system; the 12z run now shows a threat of heavy rain and severe storms on Tuesday of next week. Low confidence on this now... lets get through tomorrow and then we will focus on that!

Also wanted to thank the Jackson, MS NWS office for their coodination this afternoon!

Wanted to touch on a bit of light-hearted stuff because there will be no time for that the next couple of days. Bad weather coming in Wednesday. Little Miss Molly will be ignored again and she will again go into "hunker-down" mode if loud thunder rolls across her Tiny Corner.

Sure did enjoy my early morning walk with her. Everything is so lush and green. The common area along the walking track has been freshly mowed and it is so pretty. The birds were relatively quiet this morning so there was no unusual excitement.

Little Miss Molly did see the new dog on the block at a distance this morning. She pulled me toward him as fast as I could move. When she got closer, Molly realized that the dog was 3X her size and slowed down. She would take three steps foward and pause...then look back at me. She wanted to make sure I was still there to protect her.

Since she was attacked by a larger dog who chased her into our back yard over a year ago, she has been very jittery around big dogs. She loves dogs her size. That incident resulted in my wife getting a broken wrist.

Spring is rushing in and I am not ready for it. Varmints are already coming out of the woodwork--worms, spiders, you name it.

I wish it was Autumn arriving instead of spring...that is my favorite season followed by winter--my second favorite.

Life goes on...we have to take the good with the bad.

The Tuesday morning web video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Most of our attention will be focused on the storm system that will begin to affect the state tomorrow. Today will be dry and warm with temperatures rising into the upper 70s, maybe touching 80 in spots.

A rather deep upper low will move along I-40 during the next 48 hours from the Texas panhandle to eastern Oklahoma, and the latest model runs move the initial band of showers and storms into west Alabama by mid to late afternoon tomorrow. The air will be relatively unstable, and low level shear values certainly support the possibility of severe storms. But, wind fields are not very impressive (850 mb winds 20-30 kts, 250 mb winds 50-75 knots), and I really don't expect a major outbreak. SPC has all of Alabama in a slight risk of severe storms tomorrow. In the event wind fields are stronger than forecast, and the WRF CAPE and helicity values verify, the threat could be more significant.

Rain could be heavy; the NAM extraction shows 1.93" of rain tomorrow and Thursday. The GFS shows 1.32".

Both models are showing warmer temperatures than we have in our forecast for Thursday. If we see some sunshine, and if temperatures rise into the low 70s as suggested by the models, we might have some convection going on Thursday, and with very cold air aloft we might have to deal with some hail. So, I will probably amend the Thursday forecast to reflect warmer temperatures and the chance of showers and storms as opposed to light rain.

The clearing on Friday might be slow, and might be delayed until Friday night if the latest model data is coorect. Then, we can enjoy a very nice weekend with ample sunshine and temperatures in the 70s.

NEXT WEEK: The latest GFS slows down the next system a good bit, and is now holding off the rain until Wednesday of next week. If the model is correct, we could very well have rain Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, April 13-15. This looks like more of a heavy rain threat instead of a severe weather threat.

Busy day today... will wind up seeing the kids at Briarood Christian at 1:00 this afternoon for a weather program. Be back in the office for the afternoon update after that...