I think it is time to scrap outdoor warning sirens.

Sure, they do have some value, but do we need to spend any more money on these things? Seems to be many Alabamians still believe you should hear a siren in your home before every tornado. I noticed many people in the areas hit so hard by severe weather this past weekend commenting about “not hearing any sirens” before the tornadoes touched down. The truth is that these sirens are meant to warn people outside, NOT inside a home. Even if some communities put them up for that purpose, a large percentage of the population simply cannot hear sirens in their home during active weather.

The sirens need to go away, and any money should be poured into getting a NOAA Weather Radio receiver in every home. That is the best way to get a warning when you are indoors. And, unfortunately, a small percentage of Alabama homes have one. I have great fear the “siren mentality” has killed people over the years, and will continue to do so in coming years unless we do something. And there are many times I wonder if the right thing is to pull all of them down and put them to permanent rest. Outdoor sirens were born during the cold war days, and were intended for use in the event of an enemy attack on the U.S.

If you are reading this, more than likely you understand the issue and have a NOAA Weather Radio receiver, E-Warn on your cell phone, or some other way of getting the warnings. The problem involves people who really aren’t “weather aware”, and don’t really care about severe weather warnings. It usually takes a tornado tragedy to get those kind of people to begin paying attention.

We are looking at the possibility of a severe weather outbreak across much of Alabama tomorrow night; perhaps late at night. Let’s hope everyone is paying attention, and not waiting on a siren blast.

I can't be sure this is a genuine photo, but one of our readers shared it with us. We tell people to avoid vehicles at all cost during tornado warnings, but I guess one that is UNDERGROUND will work!

The Wednesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

A busy discussion today...

RIGHT NOW: Check out the rain on radar over Mississippi. No rain will impact Alabama... dewpoints are very low and no moisture means no rain at the surface. High clouds will continues to cover the state at times tonight.

TOMORROW: A major severe weather outbreak is possible across the nation's mid-section. SPC has a moderate risk of severe weather for places like Tulsa, Little Rock, Kansas City, and Omaha. Tornadoes will be possible in this region, and an upgrade to a high risk outlook is possible tomorrow morning. Around here, the weather should remain quiet.

FRIDAY: The storm system will split; one part headed northeast, but the other part hangs back over Arkansas and Oklahoma. This upper wave will strengthen and move across Alabama Friday night. In response, a deepening surface low move roughly along I-40 late Friday and Friday night from Little Rock to Nashville and Knoxville.

With good upper support and strong wind fields, conditions seem to favor an outbreak of severe thunderstorms across Alabama Friday night. Looks like the best chance of severe storms will come from about 6:00 p.m. Friday until 6:00 a.m. Saturday.

Check out these severe weather parameters from the NAM, valid Friday evening:

Surface based CAPE: 1744
Lifted index: -5.0
0 to 3 km helicity: 243
SWEAT Index: 451
850 mb wind speed: 47 knots

Needless to say, we will be watching developments over the nation's mid-section tomorrow with great interest.

THE WEEKEND: The rain and storms should end early in the day Saturday. The clearing will be slow for the northeast part of the state; places like Gadsden and Fort Payne could stay overcast all day. Otherwise, we will forecast a clearing sky during the day Saturday. Temperatures will be cooler; we should be in the 60s all day. Sunday looks very nice with a good supply of sunshine and highs in the low to mid 70s.

NEXT WEEK: A wave passes north of the state on Wednesday, and a shower or brief storm will be possible. Otherwise, the weather next week generally looks benign.

BLOG: Looks like Internet Explorer users were getting lots of "white space" here this morning; the Firefox browser renders the page correctly. I am not trying to be a pitch-man for Firefox, but the browser is secure, stable, and handles web pages correctly, according to web standards. And, I don't know how anyone can live without tabbed browsing. I know some Internet Explorer users who have many browser windows open; with Firefox you only have one window open with multiple tabs. You can even open multiple tabs all at once. And, Firefox has RSS support. Try it:

http://www.mozilla.com/firefox/

Firefox is free. Their Thunderbird e-mail client also is the best.

Sure enjoyed the visit to Avondale Elementary in Birmingham today... look for those kids on the KIDCAM today on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00!

The next map discussion video will be on the server by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow...

Just in from Dr. William Gray at Colorado State University...

Information obtained through March 2006 continues to indicate that the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season will be much more active than the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that 2006 will have about 9 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 17 named storms (average is 9.6), 85 named storm days (average is 49.1), 45 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 5 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 13 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0).

The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 55 percent above the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2006 to be about 195 percent of the long-term average. This early April forecast is based on a newly devised extended range statistical forecast procedure which utilizes 52 years of past global reanalysis data. Analog predictors are also utilized. We have maintained our forecast from our early December prediction as the Atlantic Ocean, although cooling slightly with respect to climatology, remains anomalously warm and central and eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures anomalies have continued to cool. Currently, weak La Niña conditions are observed. We expect either neutral or weak La Niña conditions to be present during the upcoming hurricane season.

See his full outlook here:

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2006/april2006/

Dr. Gray makes it clear "global warming" has nothing to do with the increased hurricane activity. I am sure the national media will not report anything like this. Too bad; Dr. Gray's work is simply brilliant.

A lot of interesting information already on the blog this morning, so I will keep this list short. Just a few morning lows as it was nea freezing in some of the North Alabama valleys:

33 with moderate frost in Black Creek (32.5 to be exact)
34 at Fort Payne Airport and Vinemont (Cullman Airport)
35 in Munford (Talladega County)
36 at Gadsden Airport, Crossville, Meridianville
37 at Alexander City (based on hourly reports)
38 at Decatur
39 at Anniston
40 at Tuscaloosa, Muscle Shoals
40 also at Mentone (temperature inversion because it was 34 in the valley at Ft. Payne)
41 at Birmingham, Montgomery

COUPLE OF HOUSEKEEPING NOTES
* In the next day or so, I want to post an extensive account of the Super Outbreak of April 3, 1974 across North Alabama. I was on duty at the NWS/Birmingham for 17 hours in a row and it was my responsibility at that time to prepare camera-ready copy for the official NWS publication, STORM DATA. Much of my post will be from that--which took days on end to complete and is responsible for 3 little gray hairs on the few dozen I have left. Also will post a complete account of the F5 tornado that caused great distruction across NW Birmingham on April 4, 1977. (Known as the Smithfield tornado. I was part of the NWS team working at that time also.

* Meanwhile, be sure and scroll down to see/read the morning text and video by James Spann and the very interesting list of actions and warnings compiled by Bill Murray about the great tornado disaster across North Alabama during the afternoon/night of April 3, 1974. In the years that followed, Bill was such a regular hanging out on Saturdays at our NWS Office at 11 West Oxmoor Road, that we almost assumed he was an NWS employee...and he would have made a good one.

* And, be sure to listen to our latest WeatherBrains broadcast covering the Super Outbreak. Scan down to the morning discussion from James to find the direct link.

The Wednesday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Wow.... check out Bill Murray's post below this one. Some amazing historical text from the Superoutbreak of April 3-4, 1974. I was a senior in high school that night and was sent north (from my home in Tuscaloosa) to work emergency communications. My first assignment was at the old People's Hospital in downtown Jasper. It was a night I will never forget. The WeatherBrains podcast is all about that this week; you can listen via iTunes, or here: http://www.weatherbrains.com/

NICE DAY: Another beautiful day for Alabama today with ample sunshine and highs in the low to mid 70s. Tomorrow will be dry and mild, but we will be watching developments to the west...

ANOTHER RED LETTER DAY? SPC has defined a moderate risk of severe storms tomorrow from roughly Paris, Texas to Little Rock, AR to Kansas City, MO to Omaha, NE. In fact, SPC mentions they might upgrade part of this region to a high risk in later outlooks. This was the same area hit hard this past weekend. Conditions seem to be coming together for another major severe weather outbreak.

PROBLEMS HERE FRIDAY NIGHT? Most of Alabama is under a slight risk of severe weather in the Day 3 outlook, and conditions do now seem to favor strong to severe storms here Friday night. The latest model data suggests much of the day Friday will be dry, with the greatest chance of storms between 6:00 p.m. Friday through 6:00 a.m. Saturday. Here are some severe weather parameters for the 6:00 to midnight time frame:

Surface based CAPE: 1555
Lifted index: -4.6
0 to 3 km helicity: 257
SWEAT index: 455
Total totals: 53
850 mb wind speed: 50 knots

Model output suggests the greatest risk here could be from damaging winds and large hail, but a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out. After all, this is April in Alabama, you know.

Looks like we will be burning the midnight oil in the weather office Friday night.

THE WEEKEND: Showers and storms should end early in the day Saturday, with clearing Saturday afternoon. The weather will be cooler; after reaching 80 on Friday, temperatures will probably hold in the 60s all day Saturday. Sunday should be mostly sunny with a cool morning.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS shows yet another negative tilt through over the plains on Tuesday, but this time it moves it more northward, missing us completely. In fact, most of next week here looks dry at this point.

I will be doing a weather program today at Avondale Elementary School here in Birmingham; I will have the next map discussion video posted by 3:30 this afternoon!