I have been going over blog posts during and before Katrina's landfall. I found this one by Bill Murray to be most interesting. It was originally posted Saturday night, August 27 at 11:45 p.m.

Bill hit the nail on the head. Big time.

Read it for yourself:

Waiting Too Late?
August 27, 2005, 11:45 pm
Posted by Bill Murray
Rating: 5/5 Votes : 3

I am thoroughly amazed at an interview that I just heard with New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin on WWL radio. He said that he was considering a mandatory evacuation of the city. Considering? With the official National Hurricane Ceneter track showing a Category Four hurricane, perhaps even a Category FIVE hurricane moving directly over a city that takes 72 hours to evacuate? He said that the city’s attorneys were in consultation about the legalities of such an order. Legalities? Wouldn’t that be something you would contemplate in advance? Not 48 hours before landfall. What would be the criteria that would make such an action automatic?

Mayor Nagin said that the Governor had recommended that he talk to Max Mayfield at the National Hurricane Center. Hello! I would have had a hotline installed directly to Max’s cell phone. The Mayor said that Max Mayfield told him this was the storm that everyone has feared for New Orleans for many, many years. Max said that he had been in the business for 31 years and that this was the real deal. Still tonight, traffic on evacuation routes in Southeast Lousiana was amazingly light. Will tomorrow morning’s evacuation order come too late?

All I have heard from local emergency managers in Southeast Louisiana is the looming disaster that is New Orleans and a powerful hurricane. I have had heard that emergency managers say they will need thousands of body bags when a major hurricane pushes a 20-25 foot storm surge into Lake Ponchartrain and over the city’s levee system. Hopefully that will not come true.

I have another fear. That people on the Mississippi and Alabama coasts will take Katrina lightly because of all the media coverage and focus on New Orleans. A storm surge of 15-20 feet or higher will occur in that vulnerable area of the Mississippi coast around Waveland, Pass Christian and Bay St. Louis. Those names sound familiar? They were made famous by Hurricane Camille’s 27 foot storm surge in 1969.

The 15th tropical depression of the season has formed in the Atlantic south-southwest of Bermuda. This one should not be a threat to the U.S. mainland; it will remain over the open water of the Atlantic.

See the latest statements and graphics on our tropical page:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.hrb

The system to watch is the one just east of Florida... it could become tropical depression 16 tonight or tomorrow....

The 15th tropical depression of the 2005 hurricane season has formed 350 miles south-southwest of Bermuda. Here is the public advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

-Brian-

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005

...FIFTEENTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
BERMUDA...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST OR ABOUT 350
MILES... 565 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY...BUT A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...27.8 N... 67.5 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

The Labor Day map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Lots of action in the Atlantic... Hurricane Maria, a tropical wave southeast of Bermuda, a tropical wave approaching the Leeward Islands, and a tropical wave east of West Palm Beach, Florida.

Maria is no threat to land, and the system southeast of Bermuda will be no issue here.

The wave approaching the Leewards sure looks like it should develop in coming days, but nothing has happened over the weekend. We will watch it closely.

The system just off the east coast of Florida has become better organized and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next 36 hours. The steering currents are weak, so it might not move much in coming days. The GFDL continue to offer the troubling solution of taking the system to southeast Louisiana by the end of the week... while other models are all over the place. There is no confidence in any solution until the system becomes more organized. But, there is indeed a real chance it might move slowly westward into the Gulf of Mexico. The European model keeps it near the east coast of Florida all week without much motion.

CLOSE TO HOME: The weather still looks pretty dry around here all week. Moisture should begin to invade from the east this weekend, and some rain now seems possible and maybe likely by Sunday.

Headed into the office for the Labor Day night shift... we will resume the normal video schedule tomorrow morning. Looks like we have a pretty good football game on ABC 33/40 tonight... Florida State vs Miami. The game begins at 7:00...

I am "bumping" this post up to the top in event any amateur radio operators are reading the blog today:

Red Cross Asking For Communications Volunteers:

Alabama Section Amateurs:

The Red Cross is asking for ham radio volunteers from our section to man a large number of shelter communications centers in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.

General class operators or above will need their own ham equipment (HF and
2m/440) as well as expedient antennas and feedlines. All shelters will have power, but you will have to bring your own sleeping bag, pillow, and personal items.

Operators will be needed for as much as a week. We will try to keep you at a shelter close to home unless you can deploy in a neighboring town or state.

You could be teamed with a couple of other hams to allow a shift changes. If you already have a team, put everyone's name in the same email. A club or team unit can include Technician class operators so long as the control operator conditions are met by the team.

We are compiling a list of possible operators. To be considered for assignment we need the following information,

Name:
Call:
Class:
Address:
Phone:
Cell Phone:

When can you serve?
For how long?
At home or away?

Portable gear list:

Comments:

Please send your reply to merlin@arksupplies.com so I can route it to a special mailbox and then on to the Red Cross.

Thanks and God Bless

Jay, KA4KUN
Greg, W4OZK

Here is some information for those of you that want to help local evacuees in Alabama.

Red Cross shelters open in Birmingham:
http://www.redcrossbirmingham.org/shelter_list.htm

What the Red Cross needs, and doesn't need:
http://www.redcrossbirmingham.org/in-kind-donations.htm

The Birmingham Automobile Dealers Association IS accepting bottled water, diapers, blankets, and non-perishable food items for victims. See drop off locations here:
http://beta.abc3340.com/external.hrb?p=dropoff

Volunteer to serve or give through Governor Riley's ServeAlabama.gov here:
http://www.servealabama.gov/

Help victims in Bay St. Louis and Waveland, MS. Scroll down several posts on this blog to see the post concerning the effort begin put together by a local dentist (A Call For Help - Mississippi).

If you have evacuees in your home or hotel, know that ABC 33/40 is simulcasting WWL-TV in New Orleans on our digital channels 33.2 and 40.2 so they can see local coverage of this disaster featuring local news about their neighborhoods and communities. This can be received over the air if you have a digital TV, or on cable in Tuscaloosa on Comcast channel 99, and in Birmingham on Bright House channel 632.

Being a holiday, I won't produce a map discussion video until later today.

Our weather stays very quiet through the end of the week with sunny days and fair nights. I noticed Bill Murray indicated a slight risk of a shower every day this week; he was probably spooked by those isolated showers that popped up yesterday. I think most places stay dry.

TROPICS: Needless to say, I was disturbed by tropical model output this morning:



The GFDL takes the disturbance now east of Florida right into New Orleans in several days as a 143 mph hurricane. That is too much to even think about.

Lets don't jump on this solution; the system remains disorganized at this moment, and there is little motion. But, needless to say, it will need to be watched closely. I will have a lengthy discussion on the afternoon video later today.

I am still watching the wave approaching the Lesser Antilles... no development yet but that sure looks like it is in an area that favors development this time of the year.

Have a wonderful Labor Day... a full discussion and video will be ready by 3:30 this afternoon.