The Monday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
A little late in posting this afternoon... rough traffic coming in from Vincent Elementary. By the way, look for the 4th graders on our KIDCAM at 5:00. A great audience today.
TONIGHT: We will maintain a forecast low of 22. The NAM has 23; most spots will be somewhere between 20 and 25. Colder valleys might see upper teens if the wind can drop off.
TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: We continue to reject the MOS products... temperatures will be colder. The weather will be dry, although clouds will begin to roll in here Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.
THURSDAY: I have not seen enough evidence for us to change our forecast for Thursday. Basically a cold rain with some sleet for the I-20 corridor, including Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Anniston, and a wintry mix for areas north of U.S. 278, or north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden. There is a real chance of bridge icing up there early Thursday morning, and a chance some snow could be involved later in the day as the cold air gets deeper and the surface low begins to move northeast. I would not be shocked if Mentone has a couple of inches of snow on the ground by Friday morning (atop Lookout Mountain, over 1,000 feet). For travelers, I think the main issue will be bridge icing Thursday morning, and then again Thursday night over the northern third of the state.
I can't rule out some icy spots as far south as I-20 early Thursday morning, and again Thursday night... but we are still talking mostly rain here.
Needless to say, stay tuned!
FRIDAY: Maybe some flurries early in the day, followed by a clearing sky.
The weekend will feature dry weather with moderating temperatures. BUT... I doubt if temperatures warm up like on the GFS MOS products.
The 12Z GFS brings a nice rain-producing storm for Alabama early next week (one week from today)... lets watch this and see it if shows up on the 00Z run tonight. I am not very trusting of the GFS right now. If by chance the GFS is correct, there might be a change to some snow on the back side of this one Monday night or Tuesday morning of next week.
And, note J.B.'s post below on those temperatures up north. I sure think our warming trend this weekend might be short lived. I think on average temperatures this month will be well below normal....
Next video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow...
Watching Developments For Thursday
December 5, 2005, 4:37 pmThe Great North Deep Freeze
December 5, 2005, 1:18 pm
The coldest weather so far this season in the Great North Cold Country, especially this morning. Within the last day or so, the official low at Beaver, Alaska bottomed out at 53 below zero!
Here are some selected lows early today:
51 below zero at Chandalar Lake, Alaska
51 below in the North Yukon Territory of NW Canada
47 below at Fort Yukon, Alaska
45 below at Arctic Village, Alaska
40 below at Deadhorse, Alaska
16 below at Lostwood, North Dakota (another intriguing name)
19 below at Williston, North Dakota
As the temperature hovered around 40 below today at Deadhorse, Alaska, the wind chill index dropped as low as 65 below zero.
I have a lot of cold-natured friends that could not take that more than 30 seconds even if dressed for the occasion!
Here are some selected lows early today:
51 below zero at Chandalar Lake, Alaska
51 below in the North Yukon Territory of NW Canada
47 below at Fort Yukon, Alaska
45 below at Arctic Village, Alaska
40 below at Deadhorse, Alaska
16 below at Lostwood, North Dakota (another intriguing name)
19 below at Williston, North Dakota
As the temperature hovered around 40 below today at Deadhorse, Alaska, the wind chill index dropped as low as 65 below zero.
I have a lot of cold-natured friends that could not take that more than 30 seconds even if dressed for the occasion!
by J.B. Elliott
in Winter Weather
Quick Mid-Morning Notes
December 5, 2005, 11:00 am
A quick peek at the new 12Z run of the NAM shows a nicely developed surface low in the Gulf of Mexico Thursday evening south of Gulf Shores, with a large precipitation mass over Alabama. This confirms our forecast trend for Thursday.
Of course, the NAM shows the lower atmosphere warm enough for all rain, which might be correct for the I-20 corridor (see the early morning discussion). BUT, the NAM will have no clue about the cold air near the surface. The sounding from Birmingham this morning shows the cold air only about 1,800 feet thick, and there is no way the NAM or the the GFS has the resolution to handle that. Birmingham has now dropped into the 30s; just recently the MOS guidance from both models thought we would be in the 50s today. Forget those MOS numbers in shallow cold air... they stink.
The GFS is out to 54 hours at this moment, and it will probably look like the NAM... finally catching on to the idea of a storm in the Gulf later in the week. And, like the NAM, it won't understand the shallow cold air near the surface.
Bottom line is that at first glance on the 12Z guidance I don't see anything to change the thinking from what is posted below... if this were January, we could be in big trouble. Still, there is a real chance of a wintry mix mainly for areas north of U.S. 278 Thursday, and maybe a small window for some bridge icing as far south as Birmingham early Thursday morning. But, mostly a cold rain around here.
By the way, J.B. Elliott reports seeing the cold air so far this season in the Yukon; he found a -51 this morning (he will have more on these observations here later)... makes you wonder about the latter half of the month.
Headed out for a number of chores... will have a full post by 3:30...
Of course, the NAM shows the lower atmosphere warm enough for all rain, which might be correct for the I-20 corridor (see the early morning discussion). BUT, the NAM will have no clue about the cold air near the surface. The sounding from Birmingham this morning shows the cold air only about 1,800 feet thick, and there is no way the NAM or the the GFS has the resolution to handle that. Birmingham has now dropped into the 30s; just recently the MOS guidance from both models thought we would be in the 50s today. Forget those MOS numbers in shallow cold air... they stink.
The GFS is out to 54 hours at this moment, and it will probably look like the NAM... finally catching on to the idea of a storm in the Gulf later in the week. And, like the NAM, it won't understand the shallow cold air near the surface.
Bottom line is that at first glance on the 12Z guidance I don't see anything to change the thinking from what is posted below... if this were January, we could be in big trouble. Still, there is a real chance of a wintry mix mainly for areas north of U.S. 278 Thursday, and maybe a small window for some bridge icing as far south as Birmingham early Thursday morning. But, mostly a cold rain around here.
By the way, J.B. Elliott reports seeing the cold air so far this season in the Yukon; he found a -51 this morning (he will have more on these observations here later)... makes you wonder about the latter half of the month.
Headed out for a number of chores... will have a full post by 3:30...
Here Comes The Cold Air
December 5, 2005, 7:06 am
The Monday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
In our forecast package last week today's forecast was for rain ending along with temperatures falling into the 30s. Quite frankly, that still looks good to me. Rain will slowly move off the the east today as the mercury drops. As of this writing, Birmingham reports 42, while Muscle Shoals and Huntsville are at 36. Look for the cold air to filter in here through the day, and most spots should be in the 30s this afternoon. What a miserable day.
A nice strip of heavy snow will develop today from the northeast corner of Tennessee through Virginia, and on up to Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches are likely in this area, but spots will see 6 to 12 inches. If you are traveling up there, beware!
We will be dry and cold tomorrow and during the day Wednesday. MOS products stink; they are having a hard time handling the shallow cold air. I will use 22 for tomorrow morning, with highs only in the low 40s tomorrow and mid 40s on Wednesday. Those high temperature values might be too warm.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY: Our forecast dilemma continues. I think there is now no doubt a storm forms in the Gulf of Mexico; the question is what will fall here? As we think this through, we have to remember this is early December, and major winter storms are very rare this time of the year. But, we cannot ignore the strength of the cold air. Lets look at some temperatures at 5:00 a.m.:
Siloam Springs, Arkansas 16
Kirksville, Missouri 8
Brookings, South Dakota -8
Mobridge, South Dakota -17
This is not your typical early December airmass... and you can't ignore those numbers. The cold air will be pretty shallow here... and probably only a few thousand feet thick by Wednesday night and Thursday.
So, what to do? Here is our initial thinking:
*Precipitation begins to overspread the state late Wednesday night, and continue into Thursday. For the I-20 corridor (Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston) I think the best course for now is to maninly mention a cold rain, possibly mixed with sleet. There is a chance, however, due to evaporational cooling there might be a period of freezing rain with temperatures down in the low 30s late Wednesday night/early Thursday. A little bridge icing is certainly not out of the question.
*A wintry mix is likely along and north of U.S. 278, or north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden. There seems to be a better chance of freezing rain late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning in this part of the state, and accordingly a better chance of bridge icing and some travel problems. I think there is also a chance the precipition could change to snow, probably a brief window, at some point late Thursday or Thursday evening as cold air is pulled in behind the developing low, which should be east of Alabama at that point.
Needless to say, all of this could change. Nailing down the details of an event like this is very hard to do several days in advance.
Friday through the coming weekend should be dry with moderating temperatures.
LONG RANGE: I don't trust the GFS in the short term, and I sure don't trust it in the long term. So... not much confidence here. But, I do think there are signs the cold air builds again and comes at us at times over the latter half of the month. I will write more about this on the afternoon post here and discuss on the afternoon map discussion video.
THIS WEEKEND: Sure seemed like a blur... very busy, as most people are this time of the year. I did enjoy seeing the big crowd down in Clay county at Wellborn Cabinet for their Christmas banquet. It was fun driving through Ashland; everyone was having a big party in the town square following Clay County's victory in the state title game at Legion Field.
TODAY: Will be headed to Vincent Elementary today to see the kids... but I will be back in the office for the next map discussion video which will be posted by 3:30. Have a great day and stay warm!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
In our forecast package last week today's forecast was for rain ending along with temperatures falling into the 30s. Quite frankly, that still looks good to me. Rain will slowly move off the the east today as the mercury drops. As of this writing, Birmingham reports 42, while Muscle Shoals and Huntsville are at 36. Look for the cold air to filter in here through the day, and most spots should be in the 30s this afternoon. What a miserable day.
A nice strip of heavy snow will develop today from the northeast corner of Tennessee through Virginia, and on up to Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches are likely in this area, but spots will see 6 to 12 inches. If you are traveling up there, beware!
We will be dry and cold tomorrow and during the day Wednesday. MOS products stink; they are having a hard time handling the shallow cold air. I will use 22 for tomorrow morning, with highs only in the low 40s tomorrow and mid 40s on Wednesday. Those high temperature values might be too warm.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY: Our forecast dilemma continues. I think there is now no doubt a storm forms in the Gulf of Mexico; the question is what will fall here? As we think this through, we have to remember this is early December, and major winter storms are very rare this time of the year. But, we cannot ignore the strength of the cold air. Lets look at some temperatures at 5:00 a.m.:
Siloam Springs, Arkansas 16
Kirksville, Missouri 8
Brookings, South Dakota -8
Mobridge, South Dakota -17
This is not your typical early December airmass... and you can't ignore those numbers. The cold air will be pretty shallow here... and probably only a few thousand feet thick by Wednesday night and Thursday.
So, what to do? Here is our initial thinking:
*Precipitation begins to overspread the state late Wednesday night, and continue into Thursday. For the I-20 corridor (Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston) I think the best course for now is to maninly mention a cold rain, possibly mixed with sleet. There is a chance, however, due to evaporational cooling there might be a period of freezing rain with temperatures down in the low 30s late Wednesday night/early Thursday. A little bridge icing is certainly not out of the question.
*A wintry mix is likely along and north of U.S. 278, or north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden. There seems to be a better chance of freezing rain late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning in this part of the state, and accordingly a better chance of bridge icing and some travel problems. I think there is also a chance the precipition could change to snow, probably a brief window, at some point late Thursday or Thursday evening as cold air is pulled in behind the developing low, which should be east of Alabama at that point.
Needless to say, all of this could change. Nailing down the details of an event like this is very hard to do several days in advance.
Friday through the coming weekend should be dry with moderating temperatures.
LONG RANGE: I don't trust the GFS in the short term, and I sure don't trust it in the long term. So... not much confidence here. But, I do think there are signs the cold air builds again and comes at us at times over the latter half of the month. I will write more about this on the afternoon post here and discuss on the afternoon map discussion video.
THIS WEEKEND: Sure seemed like a blur... very busy, as most people are this time of the year. I did enjoy seeing the big crowd down in Clay county at Wellborn Cabinet for their Christmas banquet. It was fun driving through Ashland; everyone was having a big party in the town square following Clay County's victory in the state title game at Legion Field.
TODAY: Will be headed to Vincent Elementary today to see the kids... but I will be back in the office for the next map discussion video which will be posted by 3:30. Have a great day and stay warm!
Showers Persist
December 5, 2005, 4:53 am
Colder air has overspread much of Alabama, especially the NW half early on this Monday morning. However, it is slower about getting into the southern counties.
Showers, along with some thunderstorms, continue to move toward the NE over the central and south. At 3:45 am, they extended as far north as Tuscaloosa and Birmingham. A heavy shower, with some lightning, was moving NE across South Jefferson County. Moderate to heavy rain was also falling over parts of Tuscaloosa and Hale County in West Alabama.
Temperatures across the Tennessee Valley were around 37 degrees at 3 am, not much change from late last night. However, a bit further north it was in the upper 20s across West and Middle Tennessee.
Down in South Alabama, temperatures are mostly in the mild lower 60s.
Showers, along with some thunderstorms, continue to move toward the NE over the central and south. At 3:45 am, they extended as far north as Tuscaloosa and Birmingham. A heavy shower, with some lightning, was moving NE across South Jefferson County. Moderate to heavy rain was also falling over parts of Tuscaloosa and Hale County in West Alabama.
Temperatures across the Tennessee Valley were around 37 degrees at 3 am, not much change from late last night. However, a bit further north it was in the upper 20s across West and Middle Tennessee.
Down in South Alabama, temperatures are mostly in the mild lower 60s.
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