You often hear us refer to the "snow field" in winter. It is something that we have to watch because it can affect our temperature forecasts, Northerly winds blowing across a vast snow covered ground can send a chill deeper into the southern USA than when snow cover is sparse.

After the last storm, the snow field has encroached southward to a line running from Northern Arizona and new Mexico to Kansas...Northern Missouri...across the middle part of Illinois and Indiana to New York and New England. Satellite photographs and surface reports show that the snow cover is continuious from that line northward through all of Canada and Alaska and far, far over the North Pole.

This allows the atmosphere to get colder and colder and eventually the arctic air gets restless and heads south. Brrrrr!!!

The mercury in the ole Buffalo Rock thermometer in the back yard will be on a real roller coaster ride for the rest of January. Despite temperatures as cold as 43 degrees below zero over the northern U.S. over the past few days, the upper air flow pattern simply would not allow any of that bitterly cold air down here. We caught the very far edge of the airmass yesterday, and it will be retreating northward later today as temperatures recover to near 60. We should be in the mid 60s tomorrow, and a good chance we see 70 degrees on Sunday and over the first few days of next week.

But, the longer range computer models continue to hint at a strong push of much colder air in here in about 8 to 9 days, or during the weekend of January 15-16. Some of the runs of the Global Forecast System (GFS) put a big 1044 millibar high deep into Texas that weekend, which should bring temperatures as low as the teens to north Alabama. We have to remember that there is a vast snow cover over the central and northern U.S., which will only add to the chill as the air moves southward.

The good news is that we see no strong evidence of any freezing rain threat here after the arrival of the cold air. Freezing rain is fairly common here in the deep south when a very shallow layer of sub-freezing air is near the surface, and warmer, moist air from the Gulf is transported on top of that cold air. By definition, freezing rain is simply rain that falls when the surface temperature is 32 degrees or colder. A long period of freezing rain is an ice storm, and those are no fun for anyone.

But, as we say here over and over, there is not much skill in a SPECIFIC forecast beyond seven days, so we won’t be able to be confident in details of the cold air change until early next week. Stay tuned…

Afternoon video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Not quite as cool as forecast today, but still nothing like the 70s of recent days. Looks like a nice mass of rain will move over north Alabama tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. Then, improving weather just in time for the weekend with 60s returning on Saturday, and a good chance of 70 degree readings by Sunday and Monday.

Still looks like a mid-month chill for Alabama... latest GFS puts the cold air in here in about 8 days, on Friday January 14. Still no screaming evidence of any ice here, but the upper chart makes us a little nervous on Saturday the 15th. See the video for details...

Gotta get back to work on Storm Alert 2005. Will be a very fun show this year... we hope to have the schedule posted tomorrow!

The morning video update is ready for viewing:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

The cold front is passing through Birmingham at 6:00 this morning. Muscle Shoals is in the upper 40s; Birmingham is in the 60s. I still expect temperatures to fall during the day, with places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden settling into the 48 to 52 degree range by midday. Rainfall amounts should be rather light.

A wave forms on the front, and rain should become widespread tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. Then, the rain ends early Saturday and a majority of the weekend will be very nice, with low 60s on Saturday and upper 60s on Sunday. Low 70s are likely early next week on Monday and Tuesday as the upper air pattern keeps the brutally cold air up north for now.

Watch the video for details on the mid-month situation. Beginning to look like a shallow instrusion of cold air. Maybe much colder thanks to the vast snow pack over much of the nation. Above the shallow layer of cold air a southwest flow aloft will persist... that pattern is screaming for a freezing rain/ice threat somewhere across the south. Maybe Kentucky or Tennessee? Alabama not out of the question. But, the door is open for some ice issues in the January 15-20 time frame.

Still puzzled by the front page article in the paper yesterday about some kind of "storm of the century" next week. There will be another big buildup of cold air up north next week, and those folks will see some snow, but the scenario painted in that article about historic snow amounts and tornadoes in the deep south is just out of line. Straight from crazy town.

There will be plenty of opportunities for serious snow/ice set-ups through the month around various parts of the nation, and there will be some very significant problems, but no need to stock up for another blizzard of 1993, or superoutbreak of tornadoes in 1974 like that guy was trying to suggest!