January 6, 2004 was a beautiful Wednesday afternoon in the Washington, D.C. area. Skies were clear and temperatures were cool. The biggest news was that Joe Gibbs was returning to bring the Redskins back to former glory. A snowstorm was the furthest thing from the minds of forecaster at the National Weather Service in Sterling, Virginia, which services Washington and Baltimore.

Suddenly, subscribers to services like our very own E-Warn began getting messages on their pagers, cell phones, PDAs and by email that Winter Storm Warnings had been issued for the D.C. Metro area. Three minutes later, that message was followed by another urgent message that a Blizzard Warning had been issued for the area. The messages automatically flashed on television screens of local network affiliates.

Services like WeatherBug popped the alerts on the screens of computer users. Official NWS warning maps on the web showed the incongruous Blizzard Warnings. Phones began to light up. Forecasters at Sterling were shocked to see the warnings pop up on their terminals. The message said they had issued the warnings, but, of course, they had not.

It came from the NWS facility at Silver Spring, Maryland, where testing and development is done. It was not the first time that test messages had been sent out live through dissemination systems. No harm, no foul, but officials have reportedly taken steps to prevent future occurrences.

From ABC 33/40 E-Warn :
WTNT35 KNHC 062037
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI JAN 06 2006

...ZETA AND THE RECORD-BREAKING 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
FINALLY COME TO AN END...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 50.3 WEST OR ABOUT 900 MILES...1450 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ZETA IS RAPIDLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...23.4 N... 50.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER STEWART

The Friday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

The thermometer at my place has been stuck on 37 degrees all day. A few snow grains in the air, and a solid winter overcast. Quite a contrast to the mild weather earlier this week as J.B. points out below.

The clouds go away tonight, and most spots should reach the mid 20s by daybreak tomorrow.

WARMER DAYS: A quick warming trend then begins over the weekend. We reach the low to mid 50s tomorrow, and we should be well up in the 60s Sunday afternoon as the upper flow goes zonal.

NEXT WEEK: The 12Z run is coming with stronger solution for the system on Tuesday next week. The upper support is much closer, and accordingly the run is wetter for Alabama. We will take a "wait and see" on this one before we jump all over it, but we might have to bump up the rain forecast on Tuesday if the trend continues.

We cool slightly following that system on Wednesday with highs dropping back into the 50s, but we should go right back into the 60s on Thursday and Friday.

LONG RANGE: Still looks like a couple of quick moving systems from January 14-21... both will feature showers and maybe a few storms, and a quick one to two day shot of cold air. The upper pattern will remain progressive, and we see no signs of blocking in the next two weeks.

It will be good to get back to a "normal" schedule next week... have a great weekend and have a few laughs with your family!

Remember just a few days ago when it was a springlike 80 in Montgomery and Tuscaloosa?

Huge change today. If you were out to lunch, you immediately noticed that.

Here are some temperartures at 12 noon, CST:

31 atop Mt. Cheaha (Alabama's highest point)
31 at Mentone (On Lookout Mountain in NE Alabama)
33 on Monte Sano, Huntsville area
36 at Clay in NE Jefferson County, elevation 1032 feet

Generally 36 to 39 over the rest of North Alabama except on the higher ridges.

Even South Alabama is cold.

45 in Gulf Shores at noon.

Brisk northerly winds gusting to 25 mph makes it feel much colder.

Snow flurries sighted in a number of communities even as far south as Pelham. Had to look closely to see them.

Just a novelty.

Did have a report of a light dusting on car tops and roof tops at Haleyville.

Chuck Biddinger reports 35 flakes at Roebuck in NE Birmingham.

Clouds blanket the whole state. Tonight's lows depend greatly on when the clouds break up. Mid 20s if the clouds move out...closer to 30 if they overstay their welcome.

The temperature has dropped from 37.5 to 37.1 at my place since 4:30 a.m. Clouds are pretty solid down into south Alabama; not much hope we see 40 today.

Here is a report from Northwest Alabama:

"Good morning,

Snow flurries/grains to light snow showers between Winfield and Haleyville. Light dusting on cars and rooftops in Haleyville (el 950-1000ft). I am a snow lover and am heading to Steamboat, CO next Tuesday for some downhill skiing, so this gets me excited.

Thanks for all you do,
Jamey Mays
Winfield, AL"

I have many similar reports from folks in that part of the state. I saw a few snow grains here between 8:30 and 9:30.

I am afraid the "50s/30s" crowd lost this one big time...

See my post from Saturday December 31:

http://www.jamesspann.com/bmachine/post/wxtalk/3057/Catching-Up

"COLD WEATHER RETURNS: I am sure this will generate some nasty e-mail, but I just can't see how we have highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s at the end of the week. Even my old nemesis, the GFS MOS, has a high of 39 degrees in Birmingham on Friday. I can't disagree with that. The cold will be especially stinging after the recent mild snap. For the 50s/30s lovers, hold off on the hate mail until a week from now... we will see who is right then!"

That was written at a time when every other web site in the universe (TWC, NWS, etc) was forecasting highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s for today. I don't pass this along to boast (bragging never works in this business... Alabama weather can bring anyone down big time), but to simply share the fact that the "safe" method of always forecasting highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s (skewing toward normal values) in the longer ranges rarely works around here this time of the year.

The full afternoon post and video will be up by 3:30...

The Friday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

As advertised here all week, today will be cold. And, we have a few snow flurries around this morning as the deep upper trough is passing overhead. The flurries show up nicely on the Columbus AFB radar this morning over West Alabama, and are possible at any place over North Alabama this morning. They won't amount to anything; the big story is the cold.

Temperatures will proabably sit in the upper 30s all day. If the sun happens to poke out later today, we might see low 40s. But don't count on it. A cold northwest wind will make it feel even colder.

The sky will clear tonight, and by daybreak tomorrow we should be in the mid 20s.

WEEKEND WARMUP: The upper pattern is progressive with no blocking. So, the trough moves out quickly over the weekend and we warm up. Look for highs in the low 50s tomorrow and low 60s on Sunday with a good deal of sunshine both days.

NEXT WEEK: A weak front with little upper support drifts in here late Monday so a shower or two is not out of the question, but significant rain amounts look pretty unlikely. That front should fizzle out over South Alabama on Tuesday. The week looks relatively mild with highs between 60 andd 65.

LONG RANGE: The 06Z GFS continues to show a very changeable pattern with a neutral NAO through mid-month. Storms should up in these periods: Jan 13-14 and Jan 18-19. Of course, the timing will change; but the events are likely. They will feature some rain, and a quick pop of cold air that won't last more than a day or two.

BUSY BUSY BUSY: This is the busy season... right now we are getting ready for Storm Alert 2006... we hope to announce the tour dates and locations here next week. And, don't forget to pick up your free copy of our 2006 Severe Weather DVD... available at these sponsor locations:

Trussville Mazda
Med Center Mazda
Sonic Drive In (all locations)
Bedz Express (all locations)
Alabama's First Federal Credit Union (all locations)
Trinity Contractors

This year's DVD highlights the wild 2005 hurricane season that really has yet to end.

The next map discussion video will be on the server by 3:30 this afternoon!

It looks like snowflakes are finally falling over parts of Alabama this morning, but don't look for much accumulation at all! As of 5:15, the Columbus, Mississippi NEXRAD shows a nice patch of snow flurries and snow showers moving south through Franklin, Marion, Winston, Fayette, and Lamar Counties. Temperatures are too warm for any significant accumulations, but you might see a quick coating on the grass in a few spots up and down Alabama Highway 17 this morning before sunrise! Radars have a tough time picking up the very lightest of snow or rain, so there could be flurries elsewhere across central Alabama this morning that we simply can't detect with our radar. Again, no accumulations of snow or ice are expected, but you may see a few flakes this morning!