Looks like an interesting severe weather set-up for parts of the Deep South Thursday and Thursday night.

A vigorous upper air storm system should trigger numerous thunderstorms across Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, and the western part of Tennessee during the day Thursday. A number of parameters will be in place for tornadoes in this region, and we might be dealing with our first significant spring severe weather event of 2006. Then, we think the storms will evolve into a long squall line that will race through Alabama Thursday night.

At this point, it looks like the greatest risk of severe storms in Alabama will come from about 6:00 p.m. Thursday through 3:00 a.m. Friday. A few severe storms could creep into the northwest part of the state late Thursday afternoon. For now, it looks like the biggest threat will come from damaging straight line winds with the squall line. Wind fields, both surface and aloft, will be very strong. At 5,000 feet off the ground, winds could approach 90 miles per hour ahead of the system, and winds near the surface could easily gust over 30 mph at times Thursday, even away from thunderstorms. There is concern that there could be widespread wind damage with this line Thursday night if computer models are correct. But, severe weather events are typically driven by mesoscale weather features which we won’t really know about until Thursday morning.

Since we have not had a major spring severe weather outbreak in a number of years, we recommend all Alabama families review their safety plan at home. And, of course, have a good way of getting tornado warnings in the event they are needed. Don’t forget about severe thunderstorm warnings as well… they can be very, very important!

The Monday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

SHORT TERM: Temperatures will be about ten degrees cooler tonight and tomorrow; but dry air means the sky should stay generally clear. Colder spots will have a light freeze early tomorrow; and afternoon highs will be close to 60 degrees.

SEVERE WEATHER DISCUSSION: We are still concerned over the possibility of a line of severe thunderstorms racing through Alabama Thursday evening... still looks like the greatest risk of severe storms will come from about 6:00 Thursday evening through 3:00 Friday morning. And, the primary concern is for straight line winds along the line.

Guess the one item that really stands out is the atmospheric wind field with this system. Models are suggesting winds about 5,000 feet off the ground could exceed 80 knots, which is a screaming low level jet. The surface pressure gradient is also very tight, and winds by Thursday afternoon will likely be in the 20 to 30 mph range over the northern half of the state, even with no thunderstorms involved.

I still think the greatest threat of tornadoes will come Thursday afternoon over North Mississippi and West Tennessee, with everything folding into a long squall line that will race through Alabama Thursday night with the potential for widespread wind damage. Isolated tornadoes along the line can't be ruled out, but straight line wind issues will be the big problem based on what we see now.

Needless to say, we encourage everyone to keep an eye on the blog here in coming days for the latest on this potentially dangerous weather situation for the Deep South. Our friends over at the Jackson NWS office believe a moderate risk will be required for their state on Thursday, and perhaps a high risk if instability values exceed model projections.

NWS JAN (Jackson, MS) just reported the 18z NAM, at 15z Thu for JAN, has 0-3 km SRH of 800 with a Total Totals of 50 and 1,700 j/kg of CAPE. Impressive!

FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY: A strong ridge over Florida will try to nose in here, and if the ridge wins the battle we are talking highs at or over 80 degrees this weekend with a good supply of sunshine and little chance of rain. However, a disturbed southwest flow aloft is just to the west of here, and if that happens to become a player we might have a few showers and storms, mainly on the far western side of the state. I think the ridge will be the big player for us this weekend, and for now we will keep the chance of rain on the low side.

LONGER RANGE: Really more questions that answers right now concerning the mid-month period. The big trough over the western part of the nation will eject a series of waves northeast toward the plains states and the midwest U.S.... seems like the GFS thinks most of those will stay west of Alabama. I am not totally convinced that is correct. You have to also think once the main upper trough lifts out we will have some active weather. Lets get the Thursday night event on past us and we can focus on coming attractions. The GFS has also backed off on the cold snap in the March 17-20 time frame. But, that also might be wrong. Stay tuned...

Sure enjoyed speaking over at Valley Elementary in Pelham today; those 1st graders will be featured on the KIDCAM on ABC 33/40 News today at 5:00... be watching for them!

The next map discussion video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow...

A couple of final pictures from Starkville... from the Saturday night bash at the Little Dooey BBQ joint:


Jason Simpson working that BBQ.


This one, like so many others, speaks for itself! J.B. Elliott is in "hog heaven"...

The Monday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Back in the saddle this morning after some time away at the Southeast Severe Storms Symposium at Mississippi State. You can scroll down to see notes from the conference, and pictures from the Friday night eat-a-thon. I will post a few more pictures a little later this morning from the Little Dooey BBQ party Saturday night.

On to business...

We are looking at dry weather for the first half of the week. Lots of sunshine today, tomorrow, and Wednesday, but temperatures will be changeable. We go into the upper 60s today, but temperatures tomorrow will be about 8 degrees cooler as a northwest flow aloft pulls down cooler air. But, on Wednesday, we warm up again and go back into the upper 60s, or maybe even low 70s. Mid 70s are likely on Thursday as the warming trend continues.

THURSDAY NIGHT SEVERE THREAT? That is the buzz on the streets. Yes, there will be some threat of severe weather here late Thursday and Thursday night. But, I am not convinced it will be a "red letter" type severe weather day for Alabama.

The GFS is trending toward a neutral tilt to the trough, and really moves the surface low far north of Alabama. The UKMET has been also suggesting this type of setup. And, all models are not suggesting a great amount of instability. But, I do think the models are underestimating the amount of instability, which is fairly common 108 hours away from a spring event here.

Most likely, the severe weather threat will beging during the day Thursday over Mississippi, where a few isolated tornadoes will be possible. Then, the storms should organize into a long squall line and move across Alabama Thursday night. With the loss of daytime heating, and the surface low passing so far north of here (the GFS shows it over the U.P. of Michigan at midnight Thursday night), it sure looks like our main threat will come from strong straight line winds within the line of storms.

For now it looks like the greatest threat of severe weather in Alabama will come from about 6:00 Thursday evening through 3:00 Friday morning.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: After the round of storms Thursday night, sure looks like we will be dry and very mild during these three days. Temperatures well up in the 70s, maybe reaching the low 80s. I guess you might consider a small risk of a shower over West Alabama, but heights actually rise and I think most of the state will be dry.

LONG RANGE: The mean upper trough continues over the southwest U.S., firing occasional waves through the plains states. Seems like most of these stay west of here until the main system finally lifts out around March 15-17. The GFS paints a pattern similar to the one we expect this Thursday night; a surface low that winds up over Michigan with a squall line racing through the state around March 17. Needless to say, this is out there in voodoo land and I sure don't want to nail down details so far in advance.

There is also hint of a significant late season cold snap in the March 19-21 time frame over the eastern U.S.

HOUSEKEEPING: Anytime we have the threat of severe weather or winter storms, passion runs high for those who love weather. We do remind you of our policy on comments on this blog:

*No personal attacks
*No constant posting of current conditions
*Please don't post your own weather discussions... although we welcome your comments on our thoughts
*Please don't post NWS warnings or other products; those can be found easily by those who want to see them!

TODAY: Headed out to see the kids at Valley Elementary School today (in Pelham)... will be on the office for the afternoon map discussion video which will be ready by 3:30!