The Storm Prediction Center maintains a high risk of severe thunderstorms for much of North Alabama later today and tonight. There are three levels of risk as defined by the SPC; slight, moderate, and high. Most severe weather risks are slight; you might see a moderate risk here 5 or 6 times a year. But, high risks like today are pretty rare. Maybe once every two years. Here is the official definition of a high risk from SPC:

A HIGH risk area almost always means a major severe weather outbreak is expected, with great coverage of severe weather and enhanced likelihood of extreme severe (i.e., violent tornadoes or extreme convective wind events over a large area). Within a high risk area, expect at least 20 tornadoes with at least 2 of them rated F3+, or an extreme derecho causing 50+ widespread wind events (50+) with numerous higher end wind (80+ mph) and structural damage reports.

Some examples of previous high risk days here include November 10, 2002, and April 8, 1998. Both events featured long track tornadoes and loss of life. We are not saying that will happen later today and tonight, but we are saying it COULD happen. So, we encourage everyone to take some time today to review your severe weather plan, and think about how you get tornado warnings.

Your first way of getting a getting a tornado warning should never be a siren, and quite frankly it should not be us on television (we can’t help when the TV is turned off, or you are watching a cable or satellite channel. Every home needs a NOAA Weather Radio receiver. And, you can sign up for E-Warn on our web site so warnings can come in on your cell phone. And, be sure everyone in your home knows your plan of action if a warning is issued!

Stay tuned for updates here...

Report filed at 9:14 pm from NWS, Wichita

At 7:14 this evening a tornado touchdown near Chetopa, Kansas
2 homes damaged
1 mobile home destroyed
1 18-wheeler flipped over on highway 59
12 minor injuries
All declined transportation to a hospital

No showers or thunderstorms anywhere in Alabama at 10:00 tonight.

In fact, no showers or storms either in Mississippi or Louisiana.

The nearest strong thunderstorms were over NW Arkansas where the NWS in Little Rock has issued a couple of Tornado Warnings.

Tornado Watches are now posted for about the NW half of Arkansas, SW and West Missouri up into SW Iowa and NE Nebraska. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch covers extreme NE Texas.

There have been 19 tornado reports so far today, mostly over Eastern Kansas and a few over NE Oklahoma. So far the SPC has not posted any reports of injuries.

We will be posting a lot of updates during the next 24 hours. Check back often.

OUTLOOKS
For the remainder of tonight, a high risk of severe weather continues for extreme NE Oklahoma and extreme NW Arkansas. For Friday the high risk area covers NE Mississippi, much of North Alabama, extreme NW Georgia and extreme NE Tennessee. A moderate risk extends further southward to south of Montgomery down to north of Mobile.

The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Prior to major events we always have thousands of new readers. Welcome... I suggest watching the video if you have time; it will help you to understand what I write here. The map discussion videos are done twice daily.

SPC has placed the northern third of Alabama under a high risk of severe weather for tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. A moderate risk extends below that, deep into South Alabama. Here is some additional information on the "high risk" from the Storm Prediction Center:

"A HIGH risk area almost always means a major severe weather outbreak is expected, with great coverage of severe weather and enhanced likelihood of extreme severe (i.e., violent tornadoes or extreme convective wind events over a large area). Within a high risk area, expect at least 20 tornadoes with at least 2 of them rated F3+, or an extreme derecho causing 50+ widespread wind events (50+) with numerous higher end wind (80+ mph) and structural damage reports."

Nobody needs to be upset or anxious about this; if you have a way of hearing warnings and a good place to go, you will be fine even if we do have a significant outbreak. And, remember, this is just an outlook, and outlooks can be wrong.

TONIGHT: There is a high risk of severe weather for the rest of the afternoon and tonight across parts of eastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska. A moderate risk surrounds that, and covers much of the nation's mid-section. As of 3:00 p.m. there are no active tornado warnings in that area, but storms are increasing, and some of them should go into rotation soon. It will be a long night for our friends in the heartland, and we will be watching with interest.

TOMORROW: Storms from tonight's activity should weaken toward daybreak, and could lay down a few mesoscale outflow boundaries across the Deep South tomorrow. These small scale boundaries will play a big role in how the severe weather event unfolds tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night.

I still think most of the severe weather problems in Alabama will come in the 6:00 p.m. until 3:00 a.m. time frame (tomorrow night into the pre-dawn hours Saturday), but a few isolated afternoon storms cannot be ruled out, and those could become severe. Go, as a broad-brush statement, the general risk time here will be from 3:00 p.m. through 3:00 a.m.

The surface low won't be all that deep, winds are fairly unidirectional, and the upper trough is positive tilt, but most other severe weather parameters will be in place. Excellent instability, very good speed shear, strong winds aloft and near the surface.

CALL TO ACTION: Be sure you have a way of hearing tornado warnings tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. Forget tornado sirens... you need a NOAA Weather Radio in your home. If you are away from home, have E-Warn on your cell phone. Everybody in the home, including the children, need to know the safe place. And, if you live in a mobile home, you must have a safe place to go, even in the middle of the night.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION:

*You can sign up for E-Warn here:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/ewarnmain.hrb

*If we go into long form coverage, you can watch us on the web if television is not available to you. Just go to our main page and click on the "streaming video" button on the right (near the top):
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THE WEEKEND: Saturday will be mostly cloudy and cooler with some lingering light rain possible during the morning. Sunshine returns in full force on Sunday.

Have to run to a meeting down the hall; stay tuned to the blog for the latest updates. Due to the extremely high volume of e-mail, I won't be able to give personal briefings... you can read our thinking right here!

The next map discussion video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow....

Early this afternoon, the Storm Prediction Center placed a large part of North and Central Alabama under a High Risk area for tomorrow. The high risk extends roughly along a line from Demopolis to Calera and Anniston northward which includes Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston, Gadsden, Ft. Payne, Huntsville, Decatur, Florence, Jasper, Hamilton, Cullman, Russellville--just to name some.

A Moderate Risk area extends further south to south of Montgomery and a Slight Risk area for the rest of the state.



This is something we will watch extremely closely.

* 6 is the number of states or parts thereof that are covered with a moderate or high risk for severe weather today and tonight. This includes most of Arkansas, East Oklahoma, Central and East Kansas, East Nebraska, SW Iowa and the western 2/3 of Missouri. The high risk area covers East Kansas, extreme SE Nebraska and the west edge of Missouri, including such cities as Omaha, Wichita, Topeka and Kansas City.

* 5 is the number of states under a moderate risk for Friday and Friday night. This includes virtually all of Mississippi and Tennessee, the north 3/4 of Alabama and NW Georgia. There are some hints from the Storm Prediction Center that part of that moderate risk area could be upgraded to high risk.

* 96 mph was a wind gust recorded at Eagle, Colorado Wednesday afternoon.

* 75 mph plus was the expected wind gust from this big western storm in the La Sal Mountains west of Monticello in SE Utah. This combined with a winter storm. That means a certain nice campsite among a grove of aspen trees will be impossible to reach.

* 99 degrees was the hot spot in the USA Wednesday at Wink, Texas.

* 21 was the lower 48 states low this morning in Keene, New Hampshire.

* 28 below zero was Alaska's coldest at Point Lay.

* 47 below zero was the wind chill at Deadhorse, Alaska this morning.

* 20 is the estimated cups of coffee that I will consume as I go 24 hours without sleep from Friday morning until early Saturday morning. It will be another one of those marathon severe weather work events. Others in our weather group will experience the same lack of sleep.

* 12 to 30 inches of snow was the amount expected from this latest storm in the higher elevations of the Wasatch and western Uintah Mountains in Utah. Winds along the ridge line were expected to gust as high as 75 mph.

* 135 was the number of inches of snow on the ground this morning at Alta, Utah, a ski area SE of Salt Lake City.

* 0 is the number of ballgames I have had with Little Miss Molly today and she does not like it one bit.

* 10 was the noon (CDT) dew point at Roswell, New Mexico and 22 in Fort Stockton, Texas, while it was in the low and mid 60s all across South and east Texas (distinct dry line)

We now have a high risk for today across a part of the central plains:



Will be interesting to watch this unfold later today...

The Thursday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

A significant severe weather threat is shaping up for Alabama late tomorrow and tomorrow night.

While we enjoy a dry and mild day today, severe storms will break out this afternoon across the nation's mid-section; a moderate risk of severe weather is up today for cities like Tulsa, Little Rock, Kansas City, and Omaha. The system responsible for this will be impacting Alabama in a big way within the next 48 hours.

Usually, the actual magnitude of a severe weather outbreak here is determined by mesoscale features you don't see on model output, like outflow boundaries. These small scale surface features can produce local areas of low level convergence, and can enhance the potential for severe storms or tornadoes. We will be watching tonight's action to the northwest, and be watching for leftover boundaries that work their way down here tomorrow.

We can't rule out a few showers or storms during the day tomorrow, but I still think the main show comes in the 6:00 p.m. to 3:00 a.m. time frame.

Here are some severe weather parameters for tomorrow evening for Birmingham:

Surface based CAPE: 2072
0 to 3 km helicity: 286
SWEAT index: 438
Total totals: 52.7
850 mb wind speed: 51 knots

Positives for severe weather: excellent instability, good upper air support and forcing, fairly strong wind fields, very good speed shear.

Negatives for severe weather: the upper trough is not negatively tilted (based on the GFS), there is no especially deep surface cyclone, wind fields are somewhat unidirectional.

As stated above, I really think it all boils down to the mesoscale, and we won't know about that until tomorrow morning.

SPC has the northern two-thirds of Alabama under a moderate risk of severe weather late tomorrow and tomorrow night. Lets remember it has been 8 years since we have seen a really violent spring tornado outbreak here; take a little time today or tonight to review your severe weather safety plan with your family and be sure everyone is on the same page.

Remember you can sign up for E-Warn and get warnings on your cell phone (or by e-mail) here:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/ewarnmain.hrb

SATURDAY: I am not sure Saturday will be a nice day. An upper trough will be phasing up over the eastern part of the nation and passing over Alabama. Most of the rain will move east of the state early in the day, but clouds could hang around all day, and some light rain is possible for the northern third of the state during the morning. Temperatures will hold in the 60s much of the day with a cool northwest wind.

SUNDAY: A nice day. Sunshine returns; the high should be near 70 after a chilly morning.

NEXT WEEK: For now much of next week looks fairly quiet with mild afternoons and cool nights.

We will be waiting and watching... stay tuned to the blog for thoughts and updates. The next map discussion video will be posted by 3:30 this afternoon...